Three years after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops to invade Ukraine, in what has become Europe's largest conflict since World War II, he now appears close to achieving his stated goals. This stands in stark contrast to Putin's initial expectations when he launched the "special military operation," anticipating a swift victory.
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02-24, 2025However, the reality is that hundreds of thousands of soldiers and civilians have died, millions of Ukrainians have become refugees, and cities have been razed to the ground. Meanwhile, Putin, who has ruled Russia for 25 years, has become more isolated on the international stage as international sanctions attempt to weaken the Russian economy.
Matthew Sussex, a senior research fellow at the Australian Defence College's Defence Studies Centre, said that U.S. President Donald Trump's startling shift in U.S. policy this month appears to have given Putin an "absolute victory" on the diplomatic stage. He pointed out that if the situation had continued for another year, the Russian economy would have suffered from "stagflation"—extremely high interest rates, rapidly rising prices, and energy costs—and that the Trump administration's policy shift has provided Putin with an opportunity to escape the predicament.
The Trump administration has begun to chart a new course, proactively engaging with Russia and pushing for a peace agreement. Last week, senior U.S. and Russian officials held talks in Saudi Arabia to discuss improving relations, negotiating an end to the war, and potentially preparing for a meeting between Trump and Putin. Sussex believes that Putin seems closer than ever to consolidating Moscow's control over approximately one-fifth of Ukrainian territory and preventing it from joining the NATO alliance.
Sussex warns that the impact of the new U.S. policy will extend far beyond the conflict in Ukraine and touch the core of the NATO military alliance. He emphasized that the focus of the U.S. and Russia's discussions in Saudi Arabia is on resetting U.S.-Russian relations and the direction of European security. Remarks by senior Trump administration officials suggest that its European allies are gradually being marginalized. U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth previously stated in Brussels that it is unrealistic for Kyiv to join NATO or return to its sovereign borders before 2014, a clear break from Washington's previous position.
Days later, U.S. Vice President JD Vance rebuked European leaders at the Munich Security Conference, saying that their greatest threat to security came from "within," not from China or Russia, and accusing them of suppressing free speech and refusing to cooperate with far-right parties in government. Sussex believes that the signals sent by Hegseth and Vance indicate that the United States no longer sees itself as the primary guarantor of European security. Furthermore, the rapidly deteriorating relationship between Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has also delighted Moscow. Zelenskyy said last week that Trump lives in a Russian-created "information space of falsehoods," while the American leader called his Ukrainian counterpart a "dictator with no elections," remarks that will undoubtedly complicate efforts to end the war.
Sussex believes that Putin will see these developments as an "absolute victory" and will view the U.S. position as a green light to invade other Eastern European countries, such as Moldova or Georgia. He added that the only saving grace for Europeans is that the sacrifices of the Ukrainians have greatly weakened Russia's conventional forces, giving European countries several years to rearm in order to prepare before Putin poses a real threat to Central and Eastern Europe. Despite Trump's eagerness to reach a peace agreement in Ukraine, negotiations are still in their early stages. Many experts believe that Putin, as a master of long-term political games, is in no hurry. With divisions emerging in Western unity and the U.S. reducing its support for Ukraine, any outcome will be good for the Russian leader.
