Australian National Office of Intelligence Director-General Andrew Shearer recently stated that China's dispatch of three warships to the Tasman Sea was, in part, "intended as a provocation." Currently, this naval formation is returning near Tasmania and is under close observation.
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02-26, 2025Shearer offered a candid assessment this week of Beijing's strategic intent in sending this heavily armed fleet to the region, saying its purpose was to "shape" the behavior of countries, including Australia. He also stated that the recent live-fire exercises were unprecedented, indicating that "China's growing ability to project military power into our near region" now "matches a growing intent."
Appearing before a parliamentary committee on Monday evening, Shearer pointed out that this was "the southernmost operation of a PLA-N [People's Liberation Army-Navy] task group." He told a Senate estimates hearing: "We judge that Beijing intends to normalise this presence, shape the responses of countries in the region, and observe and learn from our responses." He further added: "The largest and least transparent military build-up since World War II will mean that the PLA will be able to operate at greater range from mainland China, in greater numbers, including into Australia’s near seas and skies."
On Tuesday, the Australian Department of Defence confirmed that the PLA-Navy fleet had re-entered Australia's Exclusive Economic Zone and was operating approximately 160 nautical miles east of Hobart, under close tracking. A military source, not authorized to speak publicly, told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) that there was a "working assumption" that the three-ship task force, operating far from mainland China for several weeks, may have been supported by a submarine for at least part of its deployment. Navies with nuclear-powered submarines, such as the US and UK, are known to routinely use them on long and complex warship missions to gather valuable intelligence on potential adversaries.
Meanwhile, commercial airline pilots flying over the Tasman Sea last week told the ABC they had monitored radio communications between the Chinese warships and military reconnaissance aircraft as early as last week, warning of possible live firing activities. "The Chinese ships broadcast a message on 121.5 [VHF frequency] about a live firing exercise, telling New Zealand aircraft to keep clear," one international airline pilot told the ABC, describing a flight on Tuesday, February 18. "The New Zealand aircraft replied that they were allowed to be there under international law, and this happened a few times. A lot of civilian aircraft heard it and told the Chinese to ‘get lost’." This week, aviation officials revealed that they first became aware that China had begun conducting live-fire exercises when a Virgin Australia pilot relayed a warning they had received mid-flight via an emergency radio frequency.
