Israel threatens a second Nakba, yet denies the first ever happened

Last month, after a ceasefire temporarily halted Israel's 15-month-long war on Gaza, Sufian Abu Gasan joined hundreds of thousands of Palestinians in a defiant return to their ravaged homes. The 70-year-old felt relieved that the mass killing of Palestinians by Israel had temporarily ceased. He knew life would be difficult due to the widespread destruction caused by the Israeli war, with his taxi business ruined, his house damaged, and Gaza facing shortages of nearly everything, even drinking water.

At least he and his family had survived Israel's relentless bombing, siege, and starvation tactics, returning to northern Gaza, their only home. On the night of February 17, Abu Gasan heard broadcasts from Israeli drones, threats designed to trigger the worst generational trauma in Palestinian history. Israel is threatening the battered and exhausted Palestinians with a "second and third Nakba," exacerbating their already dire circumstances.

The Nakba refers to the ethnic cleansing of at least 750,000 Palestinians from their homes and villages by Zionist militias in 1948 to create Israel. Seventy-seven years after the Nakba, which Israel has never acknowledged, the country is again threatening to expel millions of Palestinians from their remaining homes. The majority of Gaza's population – 70 percent of its approximately 2.3 million people – are descendants of those forced to flee militia violence during the first Nakba, their villages and towns now incorporated into Israel.

The vast majority yearn to return to their homes, just like fellow Palestinian refugees who fled to the occupied West Bank or neighboring countries because of the Nakba. Many, like Abu Gasan, are determined never to be uprooted from the remaining Palestinian land. "Israel wants to get rid of us all… but that’s impossible. None of us are leaving… it’s better to die here," he told Al Jazeera, underscoring their unwavering resolve.

Since the start of the Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, Abu Gasan has been forced to become a displaced person five times. In that attack, Palestinian fighters broke through the long-described "open-air prison," an enclave suffering a protracted humanitarian crisis due to Israel's suffocating land, sea, and air blockade since 2007. About 1,139 people were killed and 250 were captured in the Hamas-led attack. Israel swiftly launched what UN experts and human rights groups have described as a potential genocide against Palestinians, displacing nearly the entire population, deliberately starving people, and razing much of the enclave to the ground. Israel's war on Gaza has killed at least 62,614 Palestinians, most of whom were women and children.

Now, many Israeli politicians and members of the public are supporting a "plan" floated by former U.S. President Donald Trump to forcibly transfer Palestinians in Gaza to Egypt and Jordan in order to "cleanse" the land for developers. Israeli commentator Ori Goldberg said that Israelis often deny the Nakba and claim that Palestinians were expelled "accidentally" or "inadvertently" as part of Israel's war for independence. "There is no recognition of the Nakba in terms of protecting Palestinian memory or history. At best, people will say it was a war… we won, you lost, so get over it," Goldberg told Al Jazeera, highlighting the lack of empathy.

However, most credible historical accounts of the Nakba indicate that it was a deliberate policy to drive Palestinians from their homes. Prominent Israeli historian Ilan Pappe wrote in his book, "The Ethnic Cleansing of Palestine," that Zionist militias deliberately besieged cities and villages, blew up homes, and looted property before expelling Palestinians in 1948. Pappe noted that in some areas, Israelis even planted thousands of trees to conceal evidence of the mass destruction that accompanied the ethnic cleansing campaign. Diana Buttu, a Palestinian analyst and former advisor to the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), emphasized that many Israelis have never been forced to confront their past due to the Israeli government’s efforts to conceal evidence and the memory of the Nakba.

"Many Israelis don't even know that many of the houses they live in used to belong to Palestinians," she told Al Jazeera. "There is a phenomenon in Israel of how do I pretend that 1948 [the Nakba] didn't happen," Buttu said. Despite the lack of public acknowledgement of the Nakba, many Israelis are now calling for a "second Nakba" by supporting Trump's plan for Gaza. A February poll by the Jewish People Policy Institute, an Israeli think-tank, found that about 80 percent of Jewish Israelis support Trump's "plan," with 52 percent believing the plan is "feasible."

"This has always been part of the Israeli fantasy," Goldberg said. "As a teenager, in political discussions… the question would often be asked: 'If there was a red button that could make all the Palestinians disappear, would you press it?'" he told Al Jazeera. "The answer [from most people] was always: 'Yes.'" Legal experts previously told Al Jazeera that Trump's "plan" would amount to ethnic cleansing and could force Israel to commit numerous violations of international law. Regardless, Israeli officials began contemplating similar lines of thought shortly after October 7.

Less than a week later, on October 13, 2023, a leaked Israeli Intelligence Ministry memo suggested that Israel try to uproot Palestinians in Gaza and resettle them in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula. It added that Israel should seek international assistance to carry out this mission. Throughout Israel's war on Gaza, Israeli officials have been referencing the Nakba to taunt Palestinians. Israeli Agriculture Minister Avi Dichter said in November 2023, while defending the expulsion of more than 1.5 million people from northern Gaza: "We are now rolling out the Gaza Nakba."

In May 2024, Mondoweiss, an independent media outlet that advocates for Palestinian rights, shared a photo from Gaza showing Israeli soldiers smiling and posing after spray-painting "Nakba 2023" on a building. Israel now appears to be leveraging Trump's rhetoric, dropping leaflets in Gaza claiming that Trump's "plan" is mandatory and that Palestinians should seek help to leave. "The United States and Europe do not care about Gaza at all. The Arab countries do not even care. They are now our allies, giving us weapons, oil, and money, and sending you shrouds," the leaflets read.

Palestinians in Gaza told Al Jazeera that they are neither afraid nor intimidated by Israel's threats. Many believe they have already experienced the worst of Israel's violence. Mohammed Abu Ibrahim, 55, said that Israel's threat of "another Nakba" is psychological warfare. "Honestly, I am not shocked or surprised [by these threats]," he said. "Nothing Israel does surprises us anymore," underscoring their resilience. Buttu added that Israel's attempt to advance Trump's "plan" indicates that it has failed to achieve its war aims since October 7.

She said that despite Israel's genocidal assault and destructive devastation of Gaza, it has failed to destroy Hamas and maintain ground forces throughout the enclave. Buttu argues that Israel's failure to achieve its war aims is why it is increasingly calling for the expulsion of Palestinians. "Just the idea that ethnic cleansing is cool, no problem… it really shows you where we are in this global system," Buttu said, referring to what she sees as global indifference to Israel and Trump's plan. "It's all very scary."