What happens to the Middle East if Russia and the US stop being enemies?

The Middle East is facing a new landscape, one that some are calling the end of the post-war order, while others see it as a major adjustment. Regardless of the definition, the key question is: what happens when the United States no longer views Russia as an enemy, but as a potential partner, or at least a neutral actor? American diplomats and analysts are still struggling to understand this potentially historic shift, assessing its possible ramifications for regional stability.

When asked about reports that Israel lobbied the Trump administration to allow Russia to maintain its military bases in Syria, one career American diplomat in the region responded, "Well, that would be against our national interests?" When asked what would happen if the US president didn't think so, they remained silent. Trump has stated that he wants to work with Russia to pursue "incredible opportunities," signaling a possible departure from traditional US foreign policy.

Trump further emphasized that he found it easier to deal with Russia than with Ukraine. Previously, the US had been providing weapons and intelligence to Ukraine. When asked about Russia's widespread attacks on Ukraine's energy grid, Trump stated that Putin "is doing what anyone else would do," seemingly downplaying the severity of the conflict and its impact on international relations.

Since the end of World War II, the United States has viewed Russia as an enemy whose interests are opposed to its own, a view that has defined the Middle East region. At that time, Franklin Delano Roosevelt courted Saudi Arabia for Gulf oil. In the decades that followed, the US was committed to confronting the Soviet Union in the region. US support for Israel in the 1973 war ultimately led to a peace treaty between Israel and Egypt. In the process, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat expelled the Soviet military advisors welcomed by Gamal Abdel Nasser. As late as December 2024, the US still viewed the toppled Syrian Assad dynasty as a tool for Russia's malicious power expansion, further solidifying its stance against Russian influence.

Trump's allies have tried to explain his engagement with Putin, stating that he is trying to break up the bloc mainly composed of Russia, Iran, and China to prevent them from coordinating against the US. They added that Trump's overtures echoed the strategic diplomacy of Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger in opening up to China in the 1970s. Former US diplomat Chas Freeman called this a "false comparison," arguing that Trump's opening to Putin was more like Sadat's trip to Jerusalem. Freeman, who served as a translator during Nixon's visit to China, offers a valuable perspective on the nuances of diplomatic engagement.

On former Trump advisor Steve Bannon's podcast "War Room," he stated that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is "one of the most dangerous leaders in the world" and wants to "rebuild the Ottoman Empire." Trump himself stated that the fall of the Syrian Assad government would simply be a "hostile takeover" by Turkey. According to Reuters, Israel has informed the Trump administration that one way to reduce Turkish influence in the country is through Russia. Former US Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford stated that Trump wants to withdraw US troops from northeastern Syria, and he can imagine Russia and Israel cooperating to limit Turkish influence, while Trump would just say, "I don't care. You guys deal with Turkey." This highlights the complex and shifting alliances in the region.

Trump has chosen traditional Republicans who are hostile to Russia, such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz. But American career diplomats and defense officials say their influence is limited. For example, last month, when Vice President JD Vance challenged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House, Rubio remained silent. Trump's unconfirmed Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, met with Putin in Russia and held talks for about three hours. Those responsible for vetting Trump's appointees are not staunch Russia hawks, but those who believe the US should engage with Moscow. Officials hoping to enter the White House have been courting Trump's former national security advisor, Michael Flynn, who was ousted from the first administration for discussions with Russians. Trump has stated that he has offered Flynn "about ten positions" in the new government, indicating a potential shift in personnel and policy.

Trump is not restoring relations with Russia for the sake of the Middle East, he wants to achieve a ceasefire in Ukraine. But in the region, Russia is trying to appeal to the White House. The Kremlin has stated that future talks between Russia and the US will include discussions of Iran's nuclear program. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov appeared to acknowledge a report that Russia proposed mediating between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Trump administration. Trump has stated that he wants to reach a diplomatic agreement with Iran on its nuclear program. He stated that he has written to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei requesting talks, suggesting a willingness to engage in direct diplomacy.

The Obama administration also attempted a so-called "reset" with Russia, and relied on the Kremlin during the 2015 nuclear negotiations. Anna Borshchevskaya, a Russia expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, stated that Obama made many concessions for Russia's mediation role in the 2015 nuclear deal. In effect, Russia acted as Iran's lawyer, downplaying US concerns about Iranian nuclear proliferation. In fact, after the agreement was signed, Russia played a key role for the US, with Iran shipping excess uranium to Russia to ensure it could not be used as a bomb. In return, Russia, which shares the Caspian Sea with Iran, gained economic benefits, reaching an agreement to build a nuclear power plant.

However, Ford warned that Russia's role in US nuclear negotiations may be limited. The Obama administration bypassed Russia and its European powers during negotiations, negotiating directly with Iran. Ford was referring to former Secretary of State John Kerry and Foreign Minister Mohammad Zarif, who negotiated the 2015 agreement. Freeman stated that he is skeptical of a full reconciliation between Russia and the US. He stated that things are being rearranged in a very unpredictable way, like a kaleidoscope, you bump the sides together and no one knows what new pattern will form, but in the Middle East, what may happen is "not positive cooperation, but American silence." This highlights the uncertainty and potential for unexpected outcomes in the region.

If the war in Ukraine ends and Trump lifts sanctions on Russia, he may weaken the economic activity of some Gulf countries. Before the Biden administration imposed sanctions on Russia, relations between the United Arab Emirates and Russia were deepening. But after that, the UAE became a hub for transshipping sanctioned goods. If Trump ends sanctions, Russia can stop paying UAE intermediaries and buy directly from the US, potentially reshaping trade dynamics in the region.

Borshchevskaya stated that if Trump lifts sanctions, Russia may also seek to make up for its losses in arms sales to Gulf countries. Even during the war, Arab Gulf countries discussed arms sales with Russia. In recent years, Russian arms manufacturers have showcased their goods alongside the US at weapons expos in the UAE. US officials who spoke with MEE stated that they believe the US's advantage over Russia in the oil-rich Gulf region makes it a tough competition. Countries such as Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia have deep ties with US air defense systems such as Patriot and THAAD.

At the same time, the UAE is deepening cooperation with the US in high-tech fields such as artificial intelligence, areas where Russia struggles to compete. Even as Trump angers Europe, he is courting the Gulf region. He announced that Saudi Arabia would be his first foreign visit after becoming president, after Riyadh agreed to invest $1 trillion in US companies over four years. He stated, "They've already agreed to do that, so I'm going there... probably in the next month and a half." This demonstrates a strategic focus on strengthening ties with key regional players.