How Canada's immigration debate soured - and helped seal Trudeau's fate - Voice of Asia

In Brampton, Ontario, Canada, a single-bedroom rental appeared to be a bargain at first glance. True, it was extremely small in terms of floor space, but the monthly rent was just 550 Canadian dollars (about £300), compared to the average monthly rent of 2,261 Canadian dollars for a one-bedroom apartment in the Toronto suburbs. However, a closer look revealed that it was actually a small bathroom that had been converted into a bedroom. The mattress was right next to the sink, with the toilet just beside it.

The ad, which was originally posted on Facebook Marketplace, sparked hundreds of comments online. “Disgusting,” one Reddit user wrote. “Millennials, this is your future,” said another. But similar rentals are plentiful, such as another rental in Brampton where a bed was squeezed near the stairs, looking like it was in the laundry area. In Scarborough, Ontario, another rental offered a double bed in the corner of the kitchen.

Despite Canada's vast landmass, there is a shortage of housing. According to real estate consultancy Urbanation, rents across the country have risen by nearly 20% in the past three years. A report released in December by a government watchdog revealed that a total of about 2.4 million Canadians live in homes that are too small, in need of major repairs, or severely unaffordable. The housing shortage has intensified at the same time as inflation, and these issues, in turn, have brought another issue to the forefront of the country's agenda: immigration.

Canadians, who have long welcomed new immigrants, are for the first time starting to question how their cities are coping. Other Western countries have long had their politics polarized around the issue of immigration, but until recently, Canada had largely avoided it, perhaps because of its geography. However, there appears to be a profound shift in attitudes. According to a survey by data and research company Environics, in 2022, 27% of Canadians said that there were too many immigrants entering the country. By 2024, that figure had risen to 58%.

Protest groups have also sprung up, with anti-immigration marches taking place in Ottawa, Vancouver, and Calgary, as well as other parts of the country. “I would say it’s been largely taboo, like no one would really talk about it,” explained Peter Klatz, a software engineer and founder of the protest group Cost of Living Canada. “But things are definitely thawing.” He believes that stories like the bathroom rental in Brampton are fueling this. “People might say, it’s all anecdotal evidence. But the evidence keeps piling up. You see it again and again.”

Keith Neuman, executive director of Environics, added, “People are starting to worry about how the immigration system is managed. We think this is the first time the public is really thinking about the management of the system.” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, once the darling of Canadian politics, resigned on January 6 in a key election year amid widespread discontent over the issue of immigration. His approval rating before his resignation was just 22%, a far cry from the 65% of voters who said they supported him in his first year in office. While immigration was not the main reason for his low approval and resignation – he claimed it was due to "having to fight internal battles" – he was accused of being slow to act on inflation and housing issues that many partially blame on immigration.

Professor Jonathan Rose, head of the Department of Political Studies at Queen’s University in Kingston, Ontario, said, “While immigration may not be the direct cause of the resignation, it could be the straw that broke the camel’s back.” Under Trudeau’s government, the Canadian government deliberately increased the number of people entering the country significantly after the pandemic, believing that increasing quotas for foreign students and temporary workers, as well as skilled migrants, would boost the economy. The population has grown from 35 million a decade ago to more than 40 million now. Immigration is the main cause of population growth, with data from Statistics Canada showing that more than 90% of population growth in 2024 came from immigration.

In addition to overall immigration levels, the number of refugees has also increased. In 2013, Canada had 10,365 refugee claimants, and by 2023, that number had risen to 143,770. Professor Rose believes that voter discontent over immigration is “more of a symptom than a cause,” reflecting his “lack of perceived ability to understand public opinion.” It is unclear who will succeed Trudeau, but in the lead-up to the upcoming election, polls currently favor the Conservative Party, whose leader, Pierre Poilievre, advocates keeping the number of new immigrants below the number of new homes built.

Professor Rose claims that Poilievre “has been talking more about immigration” since Donald Trump won the US presidential election in November, to the point where it has become entrenched in voters' minds. Certainly, whoever takes over as the new prime minister, a second Trump term will add fuel to the fire, exacerbating Canada's already strained immigration issues. Part of his win in the US election was on a promise of mass deportations of undocumented immigrants, and since his win, he has said he will call up the military and declare a state of emergency to fulfill his promise. He has also announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian goods unless border security is stepped up.

Canada and the US share the world’s longest undefended border. It stretches for nearly 9,000 kilometers (5,592 miles), much of it through dense forest wilderness and marked by a “slash,” a six-meter-wide clearing. Unlike the US’s southern border, there are no walls here. This has long been a point of pride between Ottawa and Washington, symbolizing their close relationship. After Trump first took office in 2017, the number of asylum claims surged, with thousands of people walking across the border into Canada. According to the Canadian government, the number of applications increased from just under 24,000 in 2016 to 55,000 per year in 2018. Almost all of them were entering the Canadian province of Quebec from New York State.

In 2023, Canada and the US reached a stricter border agreement that prevents most migrants from crossing from one country to another at land borders. Under the agreement, migrants who make contact with authorities within 14 days of crossing into any part of the US or Canada must be returned to the country they first entered to make their asylum claim there. This revised agreement between Trudeau and Joe Biden was based on the idea that both the US and Canada are safe countries for asylum seekers. This time, the Canadian national police force, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP), said that it began making contingency plans for an increase in border crossings well before Trump was sworn into office.

This included a range of new technologies, from drones and night-vision goggles to surveillance cameras hidden in the woods. “The worst-case scenario is people crossing in large numbers in various locations on the territory,” warned RCMP spokesperson Charles Poirier in November. “If we have, let’s say, 100 people crossing every day, that would be difficult because our officers basically have to cover long distances to arrest everyone.” Now, the national government has committed an additional 1.3 billion Canadian dollars (£555 million) to its border security plan. Not everyone blames the housing crisis on the recent increase in immigration. Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow believes it is the result of "30 years" of politicians failing to build affordable housing.

Of course, the country has a long history of welcoming new immigrants. “Nearly 50% of the Canadian population is first or second-generation immigrants,” Mr. Neuman explained. “That means that either they’re from another country or one or both of their parents are from another country. In Toronto and Vancouver, that number is over 80%.” He believes that this makes Canada “very different from places where the population is homogenous.” He was involved in a survey that studied attitudes towards new immigrants over 40 years. “If you ask Canadians: what is the most important or unique thing about Canada, or what makes this country different? The number one answer is ‘multiculturalism’ or ‘diversity’,” he said.

Nevertheless, he says that the shift in public opinion and the increased concern about immigration is “dramatic.” “There’s not only a broader public concern now, but there’s more open discussion,” he said. “People are asking more questions about how does the system work? Why isn’t it working?” At one protest in Toronto, a group of people held up hand-painted signs, some of which declared: “We want our future back!” and “End mass immigration.” “We need a pause on immigration,” argued Mr. Klatz, whose group has attended some of the protests. “We need to delay it so that wages can catch up with the cost of rent.”

Accusations against new immigrants are also spreading on social media. Last summer, a woman named Natasha White, who identified herself as a resident of Wasaga Beach, Ontario, claimed on TikTok that some new immigrants were digging holes on the beach and defecating in them. The post received hundreds of thousands of views and sparked a torrent of anti-foreigner hatred, with many arguing that new immigrants should “go home.” People I interviewed who work closely with asylum seekers in Canada said that the increased concern over tighter border security has left asylum seekers feeling uneasy and scared.

Abdullah Daoud, executive director of the Montreal Refugee Centre, believes that since the US election, the vulnerable asylum seekers he helps feel isolated by the focus on immigration numbers. “They’re definitely more anxious,” he said. “I think they come in feeling, ‘Okay, am I going to be welcome here? Am I in the right place?’” Those who wish to remain in Canada as refugees cannot access official immigration settlement services until it has been determined that they are actually in need of asylum. This process used to take two weeks, but can now take up to three years.

In Toronto, tent cities have sprung up to house newly arrived refugees, and food bank shelves are also empty. The city’s homeless shelters are reportedly frequently full. Last winter, two refugee claimants froze to death after sleeping on the streets of Toronto. Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow, herself an immigrant who moved to Canada from Hong Kong at the age of 13, said, “People see that even if they work two or three jobs, they can’t make enough money to pay the rent and feed their kids.”

“I understand the hardship of not being able to afford life and the fear of being evicted, I totally understand that. But it’s not fair to blame it on the immigration system.” As discontent grew, Trudeau announced a major change in October: to reduce immigration targets by 20% over three years. “We didn’t get the balance right when we came out of the pandemic between addressing labor needs and maintaining population growth,” he admitted. He added that he wanted to give all levels of government time to catch up to accommodate more people. But, given that he has already resigned, will this be enough? Will Trump’s presidency and the growing anti-immigrant sentiment on the other side of the border spill over further into Canada?

Mr. Daoud has his own opinion. “Unfortunately, I think Trump’s presidency has had an impact on Canadian politics,” he said. “I think many politicians are using that to create fear.” Others are less convinced it will have much of an impact. “Canadians are better than that,” said Olivia Chow. “We remember that wave after wave of refugees helped create Toronto and Canada.” In the lead-up to the next election, politicians wading into the debate over population growth will be aware that half of Canadians are themselves first and second-generation immigrants. “If the Conservatives win the next election, we can expect immigration numbers to decrease,” said Professor Jonathan Rose. But he added that Poilievre will have to walk “a delicate line.”

Professor Rose said, “Because the immigrant-heavy ridings of Toronto and Vancouver are crucial to any election victory, he can’t be seen as anti-immigrant, but just as recalibrating immigration policy to fit economic and housing policy.” And, many Canadians, including business leaders and academics, believe that the country must continue with an aggressive growth policy to counter Canada’s declining birth rate. “I have a lot of faith in Canadians,” added Lisa Lalande of the Century Initiative, which advocates for growing Canada’s population to 100 million by 2100. “I actually think we’re going to go beyond where we are now.”

“I think what we really care about is affordability and the cost of living, not immigration itself. We recognize they are too important to our culture.”