High stakes as Iran nuclear issue reaches crunch moment

The Iranian nuclear program is at a critical juncture, nearly a decade after world powers reached a historic agreement to limit Iran's nuclear ambitions. Currently, Iran is closer than ever to having the capability to produce nuclear weapons. The agreement, designed to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, is set to expire later this year, further heightening concerns about the future of the program.

Dr. Sanam Vakil of the London-based think tank Chatham House stated, "This is a real crossroads moment. Without meaningful and successful diplomacy, we could either see Iran weaponize, or we could see a military strike against the Islamic Republic of Iran." The agreement, reached after nearly two years of painstaking negotiations during President Barack Obama's administration, placed restrictions on Iran's nuclear activities in exchange for lifting sanctions that had severely crippled the country's economy.

However, after Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement during his first term as president in 2018 and reinstated U.S. sanctions, Iran gradually ceased adhering to its commitments. Iran has accelerated uranium enrichment, which can be used for both reactor fuel and potentially for nuclear bombs, and has approached weapons-grade levels. Experts say Iran is now less than a week away from enriching enough material to build a nuclear weapon. Consequently, the U.S. and the agreement's other five signatories—Britain, China, France, Germany, and Russia—are engaged in a flurry of urgent diplomatic activity to address the escalating situation.

The UN Security Council held a closed-door meeting on Wednesday to discuss Iran's nuclear program. China is holding talks with Iran and Russia, seeking a "diplomatic" solution. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning stated this week, "Under the current circumstances, we believe that all parties should remain calm and exercise restraint to avoid escalating the Iranian nuclear situation, or even moving towards confrontation and conflict," emphasizing the need for de-escalation.

A letter from President Trump was delivered in Tehran on Wednesday by a senior diplomat from the United Arab Emirates. The contents of the letter have not been made public. However, President Trump issued a televised ultimatum to Iran last week: make a deal, or face action. He said, "I wrote them a letter and I said, 'I hope you will negotiate, because if we have to take military action, it's going to be a terrible thing,'" indicating a firm stance on the matter.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appears to have rejected the idea of negotiating with a "bullying" United States. President Masoud Pezeshkian has publicly echoed the same sentiment, despite previously supporting the restoration of the nuclear agreement in exchange for an end to sanctions. However, the country has been sending mixed messages. Dr. Vakil said, "There are some camps inside Iran that are in favor of negotiations. There are other camps that believe weaponizing is Iran's best opportunity to manage its security," highlighting the internal divisions on the issue.

There is a significant lack of trust in the Trump administration. Dr. Vakil added, "They have seen his (Ukrainian President Vladimir) Zelensky's capricious, very bullying behavior. And his harebrained proposals for Gaza, they don't want to be put in that situation." Iran loathes the humiliation of having a gun pointed at its head. However, it is currently vulnerable—Israeli airstrikes last year weakened its military capabilities, believed to have destroyed much of the air defenses protecting its nuclear program. Israel has long desired to destroy these facilities, adding to the regional tensions.

Iranian authorities continue to insist that the country's nuclear program is for peaceful purposes. However, international concerns are growing more serious. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which is responsible for monitoring the moribund nuclear agreement, says it has seen Iran enhance its nuclear capabilities at different facilities across the country in recent years. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi stated that Iran's stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% (close to the 90% needed to make weapons) is "growing very, very fast," indicating a rapid advancement in their nuclear capabilities.

The IAEA said in its latest report: "Iran's dramatic increase in the production and accumulation of highly enriched uranium, the only non-nuclear weapons state to produce this material, is a matter of grave concern." However, the nuclear watchdog has been unable to verify exactly what Iran is doing because authorities have removed IAEA surveillance equipment. Mr. Grossi said it is now imperative that diplomacy with Iran is pursued through every possible channel, calling it "indispensable" for resolving the situation.

On October 18, the parties to the 2015 nuclear agreement will lose the ability to impose so-called "snapback" UN sanctions on Iran for violating its terms. Consequently, Britain, France, and Germany are now brandishing the threat of snapback sanctions, hoping to exert pressure while they still can. Britain's Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN, James Kariuki, said on Wednesday: "We have been clear that we will take all diplomatic steps to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, including using the snapback mechanism if necessary," emphasizing the seriousness of the situation.

The stakes are high for both Iran and the world. Dr. Alexander Borfore, a specialist in preventing nuclear proliferation at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (another London-based think tank), stated: "If Tehran decided to make a bomb, it could enrich enough uranium for multiple warheads in a matter of weeks." But he told the BBC that designing and assembling a deliverable weapon would take months to a year or more. "Iran is closer than ever to a nuclear weapons capability," he said. "But it's not clear whether it has decided to develop a nuclear weapon, or is seeking leverage for negotiations," leaving the ultimate intentions of Iran uncertain.