Gaza ceasefire: What can we expect?

It is believed that Israel and Hamas are close to reaching an agreement that could pause the war in Gaza and facilitate the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners. ABC's US partner learned from Arab, American, and Israeli officials that an agreement in principle has been reached, and if all goes well, Israel and Hamas will finalize it this week.

This would be the most significant breakthrough in the 15-month war, which began in October 2023 when the Palestinian armed group Hamas attacked Israel. It is hoped that a ceasefire agreement could mean a halt to the war raging in Gaza and is expected to include an exchange of hostages and prisoners.

Hamas captured 251 hostages during its attack on Israel in October 2023. 94 are still being held, although Israel believes only 60 are still alive. In exchange, Israel is expected to release around 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, some of whom have been imprisoned for many years. It is anticipated that once the agreement is announced, the ceasefire will proceed in three stages.

Israeli government spokesman David Mencer stated that 33 hostages, expected to be women, children, the elderly, and the sick or wounded, would be exchanged for Palestinian prisoners. Mencer indicated that most, but not all, of these 33 hostages are believed to be alive. A Palestinian official told the BBC that three hostages would be released immediately, and the rest of the exchange would take place within six weeks. At this stage, Israeli forces would also begin withdrawing from densely populated areas of Gaza.

The Palestinian official said that detailed negotiations for the second and third phases would begin on the 16th day of the ceasefire. In the second phase, the remaining hostages, soldiers and reservists, would be released in exchange for the release of another group of Palestinian prisoners. Of the 1,000 Palestinian prisoners that Israel is believed to have agreed to release, around 190 are serving sentences of 15 years or more. An Israeli official told the BBC that those convicted of murder would not be released to the occupied West Bank. At this stage, Israel would also allow displaced people currently in southern Gaza to return to the north.

The third and final phase would involve the reconstruction of Gaza, which could take years. The Israeli official stated that during any ceasefire, Israeli forces would remain in a buffer or security zone inside Gaza. Reaching this point has taken months of difficult, indirect negotiations, especially because there is a complete lack of trust between Israel and Hamas. Hamas wants a complete end to the war before releasing hostages, which is unacceptable to Israel.

The ceasefire would effectively pause the war while its terms are implemented. However, it is unclear whether this would mean the war will end completely. One of Israel's main war aims is to destroy Hamas's military and governing capabilities. Although Israel has severely degraded Hamas, it still retains some ability to operate and reorganize. It is also unclear which hostages are alive or dead, or if Hamas knows the whereabouts of all those missing.

For its part, Hamas is demanding the release of some prisoners that Israel has indicated it will not release, believed to include those involved in the October 7th attacks. It is also unclear if Israel will agree to withdraw from the buffer zone by a specific date, or if its presence there will be indefinite. Any ceasefire is likely to be fragile. Previous ceasefires in the war between Israel and Hamas have been undermined by minor skirmishes and eventually broken down.

The timeline and complexity of this ceasefire mean that even small incidents could escalate into major threats. Hundreds of Hamas-led gunmen launched an unprecedented attack on southern Israel, breaking through border fences and attacking communities, police stations, and military bases. Around 1,200 people were killed, and more than 250 hostages were taken back to Gaza. Hamas also fired thousands of rockets into Israel. Israel responded with a massive military response, first with airstrikes and then a ground invasion. Since then, Israel has attacked targets across Gaza from land, sea, and air, while Hamas has attacked Israel with rockets.

The Israeli offensive has devastated Gaza and led to severe food shortages, with aid struggling to reach those who need it most. According to the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza, more than 46,600 people, most of them civilians, have been killed in the Israeli attacks.