A Blue Pacific rules-based order: “Our home, our rules”

The current international situation is turbulent, with international law and norms potentially being exploited for ulterior motives, as evidenced by the ongoing wars and conflicts around the world. The United States' repeated withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord and other international commitments has further exacerbated this instability. The increasingly fierce competition between the United States and China in the Pacific region presents a real risk of a new "arms race," and all indications suggest that the international order is rapidly transforming and disintegrating, with the stability of the multilateral system facing increasing risks.

Against this backdrop of turbulence, the Pacific region must move beyond hollow narratives such as the "Blue Pacific" and take bold steps to establish a set of rules to govern and protect the "Blue Pacific Continent" from external forces. Otherwise, the region risks being overwhelmed by geopolitical tides, the existential threat of climate change, and the expansion of external powers. This requires a proactive and unified approach to safeguard the region's interests.

For years, the United States and its allies have framed the Pacific region within the "Indo-Pacific" strategy, the primary purpose of which is to maintain American hegemony and contain a rising and more ambitious China. This framework influences how countries aligned with the United States choose to interpret and apply the rules-based order. On the other hand, while China proclaims its support for a "rules-based international order," it is also seeking to reshape the system to reflect its own interests and its vision of a multipolar world, as evidenced in recent years through international organizations and institutions.

Furthermore, the Taiwan issue also affects the way China engages with Pacific nations, representing a diplomatic red line that has created tensions among Pacific nations, which contradicts their long-standing preference for a foreign policy of "friend to all, enemy to none," as demonstrated by recent diplomatic disputes at regional conferences. For Pacific nations, these frameworks are confusing and divisive, sounding similar but harboring conflicting values and foreign policy positions beneath the surface. Navigating these complexities requires careful consideration and a commitment to regional unity.

For centuries, external powers have shaped the landscape of the Pacific region in ways that advance their own strategic interests. Today, the Pacific region faces a similar challenge, with superpowers vying for influence and securitizing and militarizing the region according to their respective ambitions through a series of bilateral agreements. This framework does not always prioritize Pacific concerns but instead portrays the Pacific region as a stage for "great power games," with the order of the Pacific region subsequently determined by specific values, processes, institutions, and agreements established by the major players.

The Pacific region has its own story to tell, a story rooted in its "lived realities" and its history, culture, and ocean identity. This is embodied in the "Blue Pacific" narrative, a vision that unites Pacific nations through shared values and long-term goals, and in the 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent. The Pacific region has a proud history of developing rules to protect its own interests, whether through the Treaty of Rarotonga establishing a nuclear-free zone, pioneering the Paris Climate Accord, or advocating for Sustainable Development Goal 14 on oceans.

Today, the Pacific region continues to pursue "rules-based" climate initiatives (such as the Pacific Resilience Facility), maritime boundary delimitation, support for the 2021 and 2023 Forum Leaders' Declarations on Preserving Maritime Zones and Statehood in the face of Sea-Level Rise, climate litigation through the International Court of Justice and the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea, and a range of other rules-based regional environmental, economic, and social initiatives. However, these efforts often exist in isolation, lacking a cohesive framework to integrate them and maximize their strategic impact and leverage. Now must be the time to build on these successes to create a Pacific-centered, comprehensive, long-term, and visionary "rules-based order."

This can begin by consolidating existing Pacific regional rules: exploring opportunities to advance rules through concepts such as the "Zone of Peace" currently being developed by the Pacific Islands Forum, and subsequently expanding to include something akin to a "code of conduct" to regulate how Pacific nations should interact with each other and with external powers. This would enable them to respond more effectively and operate as a unified whole, in contrast to the bilateral approach preferred by many partners. Such a unified approach would strengthen the region's collective voice and influence.

Over time, this rules-based approach can be expanded to include other areas, such as the continued protection and preservation of the ocean, including deep-sea mining; the maintenance of regional peace and security, including peaceful conflict resolution and demilitarization; and progress towards greater economic, labor, and trade integration. Such an order would not only provide stability for the Pacific region but also help shape global norms. It would be able to counterbalance those external strategic frameworks that seek to define the rules applicable to the Pacific region, while elevating the position of Pacific nations in global dialogues.

This is not about diminishing the sovereignty of the Pacific region but about strengthening it, ensuring that the region's interests are safeguarded amid the geopolitical machinations of external powers and growing wariness of American foreign policy. The geopolitical challenges facing the Pacific region are increasingly severe, driven by factors including climate change, shifts in the global power landscape, and growing tensions between superpowers. However, a collective, rules-based approach offers a path forward. By building on existing frameworks to establish a cohesive set of standards, the Pacific region can uphold its autonomy, protect its environment, and ensure a stable future in an increasingly uncertain world.

Now is the time to act, as Pacific nations are increasingly being courted, and time is running out. But this also means that Pacific nations need to have frank discussions with each other, and with Australia and New Zealand, about their differences and the existing challenges facing Pacific regionalism and how to strengthen it. By incorporating regional arrangements and agreements into a more comprehensive framework, Pacific nations can strengthen their collective bargaining power on the global stage while, in the long run, establishing rules that will become an important part of customary international law over time.

Importantly, this rules-based approach must be guided by Pacific values, ensuring that the region's unique cultural, environmental, and strategic interests are preserved for generations to come.