Pakistan moves closer to Bangladesh as India watches warily

The political upheaval in Bangladesh last year that led to the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has brought about many surprising outcomes, including a growing closeness between Dhaka and its former arch-enemy, Pakistan. This shift has garnered widespread attention from the international community, particularly within the context of regional politics.

Last month, the two countries initiated direct trade for the first time after decades of strained relations, with Dhaka importing 50,000 tons of rice from Pakistan. Furthermore, they have resumed direct flights and military exchanges, simplified visa procedures, and there are reports of cooperation on security matters. These moves signify a significant turning point in the relationship between the two nations.

Though separated by India, the two countries share deep and painful historical ties. The animosity between them dates back to 1971, when Bangladesh (then East Pakistan) waged a war to break away from Islamabad. India supported the Bangladeshi rebels during the nine-month war, which ultimately led to the creation of Bangladesh.

Despite the deep scars left by that history, Dhaka maintained cordial relations with Islamabad between 2001 and 2006 when the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami were in coalition government. However, Hasina, during her 15 years in power since 2009, maintained a certain distance from Pakistan, with strong backing from Delhi. But relations appear to be thawing after she fled to India amid mass protests against her government.

"For the last 15 years, the trajectory of Pakistan-Bangladesh relations has been slightly difficult," said Humayun Kabir, a former senior Bangladeshi diplomat. He added that the relationship now appears to be reverting to the state of "two normal neighbours." This improvement in relations could have far-reaching implications for regional stability.

Since Hasina's ouster, relations between Dhaka and Delhi have been frosty. India has not responded to Bangladesh's requests to extradite Hasina to face charges of crimes against humanity, money laundering, and corruption. Hasina has denied the charges against her. Some experts believe that the restoration of relations between Dhaka and Islamabad is a strategic move.

"There is a tactical relationship at the moment between Pakistan and Bangladesh. They both have a common desire to create a counter-narrative to India’s dominance," believes Ayesha Siddiqa, a Pakistani scholar and senior fellow at King’s College London. In addition to starting direct trade, there have been other developments.

Mohammad Yunus, the head of Bangladesh's interim government, has met Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on several multilateral occasions in recent months. Furthermore, military ties between the two countries are also developing. In January, a high-level Bangladeshi military delegation made a rare visit to Pakistan and held talks with the powerful army chief, General Asim Munir. The Bangladesh Navy also participated in a multinational maritime exercise organized by Pakistan off the coast of Karachi in February.

Veena Sikri, who served as India’s High Commissioner to Bangladesh from 2003 to 2006, described the growing closeness between Dhaka and Islamabad as a “déjà vu” moment. She said that during her time in Dhaka, India had repeatedly raised the issue of "Indian insurgents being trained on Bangladeshi soil with the support of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and a section of the Bangladeshi military." She stated, "We even provided evidence to the Bangladeshi authorities."

India and Bangladesh share a long and porous border, which made it relatively easy for armed insurgent groups from various states in northeastern India to cross over from Bangladesh. However, after Hasina’s Awami League came to power in 2009, it cracked down on these groups and destroyed their bases. Therefore, Ms. Sikri believes that the restoration of military ties between Bangladesh and Pakistan is a "major security headache for India."

She added, "It’s not just military ties. The Pakistani establishment is also reviving its links with Bangladeshi Islamist parties such as Jamaat-e-Islami, which supported Islamabad during Bangladesh’s war of independence." Yunus's government's press office has flatly denied Indian media reports that senior ISI officials have visited Dhaka. It has also called reports that Pakistani agents are working to revive Indian insurgent groups’ camps in Bangladesh "baseless."

Analysts say that Bangladeshi politicians are aware that Dhaka cannot adopt an anti-India stance, given the close economic and linguistic links. Despite Delhi’s concerns, Bangladeshi diplomats argue that relations with Pakistan cannot be normalized unless issues related to the 1971 war are addressed.

During the war, hundreds of thousands of Bangladeshis were killed and tens of thousands of women were raped. At the end of the war, more than 90,000 Pakistani security and civilian personnel surrendered to the joint command of Indian and Bangladeshi forces, considered a humiliating chapter for Islamabad. Bangladesh has demanded that Pakistan formally apologize for the atrocities committed during the war, but Islamabad has shown no willingness to do so.

"Pakistan needs to acknowledge the crimes that were committed during the war of independence," said Kabir, the former Bangladeshi diplomat. "We have also raised the issue of the division of pre-1971 assets between the two countries in several bilateral meetings with Pakistan." Even former Pakistani military officers like Ikram Sehgal concede that "the main stumbling block in bilateral relations is the demand by Bangladeshis that Pakistanis apologize for what happened in 1971."

However, the retired Pakistani army major insisted that Bangladesh should also address the attacks on Urdu speakers by Bengalis during the independence struggle. "I have personally witnessed the atrocities against (East Pakistan’s) Urdu-speaking Biharis," Sehgal, who is now based in Karachi, told the BBC.

While history casts a shadow over the relationship between Dhaka and Islamabad, economists point out that the two countries could first focus on improving bilateral trade, which is currently less than $700 million (£540 million) and mostly favors Pakistan. "Pakistan’s population of over 250 million is a solid market for Bangladesh in the medium to long term," said Sabrin Beg, an associate professor of economics at the University of Delaware.

Currently, both sides face restrictions such as high tariffs, and businesses and exporters face visa and travel hurdles. However, Ms. Beg said that "improving bilateral political and trade relations would ease these restrictions." Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar is due to visit Dhaka in April, when some of these issues are likely to be discussed. Bangladesh is expected to hold general elections at the end of the year, and a new government may have different foreign policy priorities.

But whatever happens, the stakes are high for Delhi. Delhi strongly believes that a stable and friendly Bangladesh is essential for maintaining peace and stability in its northeastern states. Any shift in the regional dynamics could have implications for India's security and development.