Why the Tigers' win over the Blues rates as one of the biggest AFL upsets in recent memory

The Tigers defeated the Blues by 13 points in an unexpected victory hailed as a classic in the last decade, especially considering the club's three championships during that time. This win also provides the Tigers with valuable confidence, foreshadowing their future potential and giving them momentum for upcoming matches.

In the game held last Thursday night at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, the Blues once held an absolute advantage, with their fans even speculating about the final margin of victory. However, the game took an unexpected turn, with the Tigers catching up and ultimately reversing the situation to win the game. This dramatic shift highlighted the unpredictable nature of the sport.

"I'm very disappointed that we got ourselves in a winning position early and weren't able to sustain it," Blues coach Michael Voss said after the game. The result of this game is undoubtedly a heavy blow to the Blues, prompting them to reflect on their performance and strategize for future improvements.

From a pure results perspective, this is definitely one of the most shocking upsets in recent memory. But how did the Tigers win? And how does this victory compare to other recent Australian Football League (AFL) upsets? Understanding the nuances of these upsets can provide valuable insights into team dynamics.

In Aussie Rules football, of all the kicking actions, the most important is the shot at goal. In the aftermath of the Tigers' game against the Blues, many were quick to point out the impact of goal-kicking, with Richmond coach Adem Yze being the quickest to react. "To be honest... we lost the expected score," Yze said. "So we just won a different way today. But we have to defend better." His focus on expected score highlights the importance of analyzing performance beyond just the final score.

In the world of Aussie Rules football, only the scoreboard truly matters. But when analyzing a team's performance, the scoreboard can sometimes obscure the underlying truth. Hidden in Yze's response are two words seen by many in the industry as a guiding principle: expected score. This is a measure of shot quality adjusted for position, possession, and kicking style. In other words, it reflects how well a team performed leading up to the final shot and provides a more comprehensive evaluation.

ABC Sport analyzed the 42 biggest upsets of the past four seasons. These were games in which the winning underdog had less than a 25% chance of winning before the game started. In those games, the pre-game favorite shot worse than the team that beat them three-quarters of the time. Often, it's conversion that causes a hot team to lose, with most close "underdog wins" reversed by relatively poor shooting from the opposition. This analysis underscores the significance of shooting efficiency in determining game outcomes.

In the Tigers' game against the Blues, they scored 21 points more than expected, thanks in large part to strong performances from players like Toby Nankervis. By contrast, Carlton's conversion was below expectations. According to wheeloratings.com, a 27-point expected score differential would typically result in an 80% chance of a Blues victory. But this does not detract from Richmond's efforts, but rather provides a context for the overall flow of the game and points to key indicators of certain upsets.

A good team controls the game by playing it their way. There are many ways to win an Aussie Rules football match, but most teams have a preferred method. One sign of controlling the game is possession. Controlling possession can keep the opponent out of the game. Maintaining possession through ball control is a classic way for good teams to exert dominance and dictate the pace of play.

Therefore, a more chaotic game can create opportunities for upsets. The simplest – albeit slightly flawed – way to measure this chaos is to look at the ratio of total ground balls won by both teams to total possessions. An unlikely upset is often a more chaotic game than either side's typical game. Likewise, the favorite in the biggest upset games may be forced into a more chaotic game that they dislike, disrupting their usual strategies.

In the Tigers' win over the Blues, the Tigers began to gain the upper hand as the ball began to spend more time on the ground. As Carlton lost the ability to relieve pressure and move the ball smoothly down the field, the likelihood of an upset increased. The Tigers' aggressive defense prevented Carlton from scoring through slow advances, ultimately frustrating Carlton and disrupting their offensive flow.

"You could clearly see that Richmond was building more energy as the game went on," Voss said. "Sometimes when things aren't going your way, you just have to keep fighting." This highlights the importance of resilience and perseverance in the face of adversity during a game.

Most coaches like to explain two things when they have the chance: pressure and territory. If you can get the ball into your attacking 50 more often than the other team, you have a great chance of winning. If you can't do that, make sure you limit the other team's scoring opportunities inside the 50-meter arc. In most games, gaining more entries into the 50-meter arc than your opponent is closely correlated with victory. Territory is not only key for a team to score, but also for a team to prevent the opponent from scoring, emphasizing its strategic importance.

However, in big upset games, this relationship partially breaks down. In upset games, the underdog often still carries a territorial disadvantage. This means that the second aspect – pressure – is very important. In recent years, teams have typically increased their tackle rate in victories. But in the biggest upset games, the winners tackled at an even higher rate than in an average game. This may lead to decreased accuracy and efficiency inside the 50-meter arc, showcasing the impact of defensive pressure.

"We play team defense, so our forwards are very important in that regard, and our defense is very strong – it looks like we're playing a strong defense," Yze said after the win over the Blues. The Tigers applied pressure as the game went on, just as they brought more of the game to the ground. Whenever the Blues got the ball, they seemed to be surrounded by a Tigers ambush, disrupting their plays.

In the final quarter, the Blues had 19 entries into the 50-meter arc, while the Tigers had only 8. They controlled possession in their half of the field 83% of the time in the final 20 minutes, but ultimately lost the game. Throughout the game, the Tigers had 25 fewer entries into the 50-meter arc than the Blues, but completed 6 more tackles, a testament to the back-and-forth battle between the two sides and their respective strengths.

Carlton and Richmond fans will be frantically trying to understand whether the first-round game heralds a bigger shift in fortunes, or whether it was just a lightning strike of good – or bad – luck. An interesting picture emerges from the 25 biggest early-season upsets in recent years. While many were just flashes in the pan with no greater significance, quite a few turned out to be "false" upsets, providing early insights into team trajectories.

Some are early signs of rising strength, while others indicate that assumed contenders are struggling. Of those teams that caused an upset, a quarter ended up finishing higher on the ladder than their favored opponents, and only a third of the time was the gap between the two sides greater than 5 wins. Some of the Carlton fans' concerns may be justified, as only half of the early-season beaten favorites ended the season with a winning record, suggesting potential long-term implications.

Famous collapses like Fremantle in 2016, Adelaide in 2018, and Melbourne in 2019 were all foreshadowed by unexpected early losses. The same was true of Collingwood in 2018 and Sydney in 2021, who reached the finals. Carlton has also experienced such stories, highlighting the cyclical nature of team performance and the impact of early results.

Early in 2012, the Blues were brought back to reality by Essendon in a game that was widely considered a foregone conclusion. Months later, the two sides were level on the ladder, and Carlton parted ways with Brett Ratten at the end of the season. Carlton also suffered another unexpected loss in the 2012 season, losing to the Suns, who only managed their third win of the season, further contributing to the team's instability.

If you think the start of the season is the most likely time to see big upset games, you're right. However, early-season upset games are generally not as big as the one we saw last week. As the season progresses, the frequency of upset games decreases. Aussie Rules football will always be unpredictable, and truly unexpected results will never disappear. Crazy upset games can happen at any time, but peak in the third quarter of the season, adding to the excitement and drama of the sport.

For Carlton fans, they will hope that last week's game was just a blip, while their Richmond counterparts will insist that it was the first sign of their next premiership team. For all neutral Aussie Rules fans who love surprises, they are simply hoping that another big upset game is just around the corner, eager for the unexpected twists and turns that make the sport so captivating.