After three days of talks in Saudi Arabia, some progress has finally been made on the long and slow road to achieving a ceasefire. The United States reached two separate agreement texts with Russia and Ukraine respectively, aimed at de-escalating the current situation.
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03-31, 2025Although some differences exist between the two texts, many aspects remain consistent. All parties agreed to "ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force, and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes," particularly in the Black Sea region. Furthermore, they also agreed to "develop measures to enforce...agreements prohibiting attacks on Russian and Ukrainian energy facilities" to protect critical infrastructure.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy expressed regret that the agreement did not explicitly prohibit attacks on civilian infrastructure, but was generally satisfied with it. He told reporters that Ukraine would immediately implement the Black Sea and energy ceasefire agreements. The United States also stated that it would "remain committed to helping achieve prisoner of war exchanges, the release of detained civilians, and the repatriation of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children," echoing Zelenskyy's appeals.
However, the Kremlin subsequently released a third document, adding uncertainty to the situation. This document attached conditions not present in the initial agreement between the United States and Russia. The Kremlin stated that the Black Sea ceasefire agreement could only take effect after sanctions on Russian banks, insurance companies, businesses, ports, and ships were lifted, which would allow Russia to export more agricultural products and fertilizers. This implies that Russia not only wants to reinstate the Black Sea Grain Initiative, from which it withdrew in 2023, but also hopes to use this opportunity to remove a significant number of economic sanctions.
Lifting sanctions may take some time, potentially delaying the maritime ceasefire. Furthermore, the United States may not be able to fully meet all of Russia's demands. For example, any move to restore the SWIFT financial messaging system would require the approval of the European Union. The Kremlin also stated that the 30-day suspension of attacks on energy facilities would be retroactive to March 18, and could be suspended if either party violated the agreement.
In conclusion, the agreement reached by the parties is a fragile step towards reducing the conflict in Ukraine, but success cannot be guaranteed in an atmosphere of mutual distrust. Even if today's agreement can be sustained, there is still a long way to go before achieving the comprehensive nationwide ceasefire that the United States initially hoped for. Ceasefires are often a process, not an event. What matters is how the ceasefire agreement is implemented, not just the announcement of a ceasefire. Will both sides work to facilitate the implementation of the agreement and abide by its contents? The answers to these questions will reveal the true intentions of both sides: is it a desire for the ceasefire to transition into a lasting peace, or merely an attempt to trade while gaining an advantage on the battlefield?
