As the Australian federal election draws nearer, both major political parties have their sights set on a crucial number: 76. This is the number of seats required to win a majority in the House of Representatives, and holding a majority means holding the reins of power for the next three years. Both parties are striving to win more seats to achieve their governing goals.
Read Also...:
US man 'felt responsible' for Aussie cop shooting: FBI
03-31, 2025
Former school janitor jailed for contaminating food, possessing child abuse material in US
03-31, 2025
Wisconsin's attorney general asks the state Supreme Court to stop Elon Musk's $US1 million payments
03-31, 2025
US Bank executive killed after plane crashes into home
03-31, 2025For the Labor Party, the mathematics is straightforward. Labor currently holds 78 seats in parliament (including the electorate of the recently retired Bill Shorten), meaning they can afford to lose a maximum of two seats to continue governing in their own right. Losing more seats would leave Labor facing a minority government or a return to opposition. Labor needs to maintain its existing advantage and avoid losing too many seats.
While opinion polls suggest that the Coalition and its leader, Peter Dutton, are poised to oust Labor after one term in government (something that hasn't happened since 1931), the electoral math is more challenging for them. At the end of the last parliament, the Liberal and National parties held a combined total of 53 seats. Following the redistribution of seats, this theoretically increases to 57, but the opposition still needs to win 19 seats if it wants to secure a majority. The Coalition faces a significant challenge and needs to win the support of a large number of voters.
So, how can the Coalition make up such a large gap? And how will Labor hold enough seats to achieve re-election? Over three articles, we will analyze each party's path to victory, as well as the key seats that could decide Australia's next government, starting with the opposition's primary targets. The outcome of this election will have a significant impact on Australia's future.
The Coalition's first and most obvious step is to win seats held by Labor with a slim margin. Top of the list is Bennelong, which, while held by Labor's Jerome Laxale, has theoretically become a Liberal seat after redistribution. Once John Howard's political home, it is now in only its second term of Labor control in the electorate's history, and Scott Yung will be hoping to return it to the Liberal fold. Gilmore on the New South Wales south coast is another must-win – it was the most tightly contested seat in the nation in 2022, and the Coalition has a high-profile candidate in former state minister Andrew Constance – while Lyons in Tasmania and Lingiari, which covers most of the Northern Territory, are also obvious targets. Labor has parachuted in former state opposition leader Rebecca White in an attempt to shore up Lyons, but with margins below 1% in each seat, all three will be hotly contested. The Coalition will have its eyes on other marginal seats such as Bass (2.85%), Paterson (2.6%) and Hunter (4.78%). Winning five of these seven seats would make up over a quarter of the seats the Coalition needs to win a majority government.
Since becoming opposition leader, Peter Dutton has made it clear that he intends to campaign his way back into government through Australia's suburbs. "I just want to make sure that we don't forget the people in the suburbs, and I do think that they are the forgotten people," he said in 2022. With suburban mortgage holders bearing the brunt of interest rate rises during this term of government – and therefore easy targets for a cost-of-living focused campaign – they won't be forgotten this election. While the suburbs have been barren ground for the Liberals in recent years, there are a cluster of such seats in Victoria that, similar to New South Wales, offer Dutton and the Coalition their best route back to power. Aston was won by the Liberals in 2022, only to be snatched by Labor in a historic byelection a year later, but it is not expected to remain in government hands. Dunkley, another seat in Melbourne's suburbs, also held a byelection – Labor retained the seat after the death of former MP Peta Murphy, but the Liberals still achieved a significant swing, which could put it within reach this election.
Beyond Bruce (5.31% margin), Holt (7.11%), Hawke (7.62%), and the more metropolitan Chisholm (3.33%) and more rural McEwen (3.82%), there are eight Victorian seats in total with margins the Coalition could overturn. The situation is similar in New South Wales, particularly in western Sydney, where Parramatta (3.72%), Reid (5.19%) and Werriwa (5.34%) are all marginal government seats. On the Central Coast, north of Sydney, Robertson is a key contest. The party that has won the seat has formed government at every federal election since 1983, so it is consistently viewed as a bellwether, and Labor currently holds it by just 2.23%. Shortland (6%), in the southern suburbs of Newcastle, could also be targeted by the Coalition. South Australia is relatively safe territory for Labor, given the strength of the Peter Malinauskas state government, but the Coalition will certainly target Boothby. Former MP Nicolle Flint, who retired before the last election after sexist personal attacks and health issues with stage-four endometriosis, has returned to politics to reclaim the seat.
Labor's win in Boothby at the last election was the first time it had won the seat since the 1940s, and with a margin of 3.28%, it is a marginal contest. Queensland offers very few options for the Liberals to win government seats (more on this later), but the one exception is Blair. The margin isn't particularly tight, at 5.23%, but in last year's state election, the Liberal vote rose by between 6% and 11.3% in seats that overlap with it, suggesting that Dutton has a chance of winning it. The country's newest electorate will also be a target. Located in Perth's eastern suburbs, Burt is a seat created for this election, and while it is theoretically a Labor seat, the margin of 3.35% is very slim. It has also been suggested that the neighbouring Hasluck and Pearce could be under threat, but losing seats with margins around 10% would be particularly dire news for Labor. Tomorrow, we will look at the seats Labor could snatch to bolster its chances of remaining in government.
