Gaza ceasefire deal could mean Netanyahu is at war with his own government

On New Year's Eve, Benjamin Netanyahu's haggard appearance in the Israeli parliament became national news. This largely explains why a Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal, brokered by Israeli negotiators after marathon talks in Qatar, was in jeopardy less than 24 hours after being announced.

The proposal reached in Doha, after months of negotiations, was essentially the same deal first put forward by US President Joe Biden at the end of May 2024. In late December, the Prime Minister underwent prostate surgery and was supposed to be resting at home. But he was dragged to parliament to vote on the budget bill, all because one member of his coalition government, the highly controversial far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, was being uncooperative and decided to block the bill.

The scene almost perfectly encapsulates the state of Netanyahu’s government. A Prime Minister so desperate to hold onto power, and reliant on the extremists of the Israeli political spectrum to do so, was forced to drag himself out of bed and hobble into parliament to ensure that part of his agenda wasn’t derailed by those who prop him up. History seems to be repeating itself.

Netanyahu’s office was quick to blame Hamas for sabotaging the 2025 ceasefire agreement, creating a “crisis” and delaying a cabinet vote on the proposal. But leaked information soon suggested it was more about his own internal struggles. The American diplomat Henry Kissinger once said that Israel has no foreign policy, only domestic interests. And that is likely what is playing out, with the lives of many Israelis and Palestinians hanging in the balance.

Netanyahu has two political troublemakers in his cabinet—Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. These two are said to provide Netanyahu with the support he needs in the 120-seat parliament. Ben-Gvir’s party holds six votes, while Finance Minister Smotrich’s team has seven. Neither man likes the idea of ending the war in Gaza. They see the ceasefire and hostage deal as a surrender to Hamas. They have both threatened to leave the government if the deal goes through. Ben-Gvir has even boasted about using this tactic to derail previous negotiations.

On Thursday evening, local time, he held a press conference reaffirming that he would leave Netanyahu’s coalition if a ceasefire deal was reached. Netanyahu’s recent political struggles have increased the number of votes the coalition has in parliament—more parties have joined. So, Ben-Gvir’s departure would not collapse the government. Smotrich’s departure would leave Netanyahu’s government in the minority. Both men have said they will vote with the Prime Minister, though as members of the opposition. This would not trigger an election. However, the future political implications of what they call “Bibi” seem to scare him.

Alienating right-wing politicians who may hold the key to his continued premiership might not have immediate consequences, but it would severely damage Netanyahu in the next opinion poll. On Thursday morning, local time, the Prime Minister’s office claimed that he would not be convening a cabinet meeting to vote on the ceasefire and hostage deal. Netanyahu’s spokesperson blamed Hamas, saying it had reneged on parts of the agreement and created a crisis. The group in Gaza may have had some ambiguities, but it insists that it supports the deal.

Soon after, leaks from within the parliament and government began to emerge. Israeli media started reporting that this was actually a delaying tactic and that Netanyahu was negotiating with the Smotrich camp. His party was putting forward a list of demands, including a resumption of fighting. One might wonder how a ceasefire deal and a commitment to continue fighting can coexist. They cannot, especially when the proposal included a timeline to begin negotiations for a lasting peace in Gaza. It was this demand that turned what could have been an administrative process—a cabinet vote on a ceasefire and hostage deal—into a serious threat to any resolution of the 15-month war.

Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, along with their like-minded allies in and out of parliament, believe that the relentless bombardment of Gaza must continue. They argue that it is the only way to defeat Hamas. They seem prepared to risk the lives of the Israeli hostages still being held by Hamas. In the first phase of the proposed ceasefire, the group is expected to release 33 of the 98 hostages held in Gaza. Investigations by the Israeli Defence Force have revealed that some of the Israeli hostages who have died in the war so far were killed as a result of the ongoing military operations—either becoming victims of Israel’s own strikes or possibly being killed by Hamas in retaliation for IDF missile strikes near their holding locations.

For Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, he is weighing up whether he is willing to pay such a price to appease his political protectors. Some of the Israeli public might support him—overnight, hundreds of banners sprang up across Jerusalem stating that a ceasefire and hostage deal was “not a victory”. But for many others who are tired of war, tired of running into bomb shelters in the middle of the night, and longing to see their loved ones come home, it would be a step too far. Netanyahu is likely calculating these numbers late into the night. Time is running out if the deal is to go into effect on Sunday.