How the Los Angeles fires delivered Gavin Newsom, the Democratic Party's next great hope, his biggest test

As wildfires rage across multiple parts of California, Democratic "heir apparent" Gavin Newsom finds himself at the center of a political storm fueled by rivals and Donald Trump. On January 10th, Sky News aired a video clip of California Governor Gavin Newsom being questioned by local residents about his handling of the wildfire crisis, sparking widespread attention.

"Governor, can you tell me how you plan to work with the President right now?" the woman asked during the exchange, which was widely shared on social platform X (formerly Twitter). Newsom responded that he and the President were working to obtain "resources to help rebuild" the state.

California, the world's fifth-largest economy, boasts a culture distinct from the rest of the United States. Home to Hollywood and Silicon Valley, it is an economic hub for innovation in both film and entertainment, as well as big tech. In recent months, Newsom has projected an image of youthful confidence and charisma, managing California as if it were a small country and being seen as the engine to counter the 47th President Donald Trump, while simultaneously preparing him for a run at the 48th presidency.

"The freedoms we cherish in California are under attack—we will not stand idly by," Newsom said in a statement shortly after Trump's November reelection. "California has faced these challenges before, and we know how to deal with them. We are prepared and will do everything we can to ensure that Californians receive the support and resources they need to thrive." Newsom's run for president seems inevitable.

He is ambitious, qualified, well-connected, has a picture-perfect family, and until now, has been known for getting things done efficiently. He was expected to emerge from the shadows of national electoral defeat and become the new standard-bearer for his party. However, the fire crisis in Los Angeles has provided ammunition for Donald Trump and the governor's rivals within the Democratic Party to attack Newsom as he stands on the final step towards presidential power.

Gavin Christopher Newsom's rapid rise to Governor of California and more recently, as a potential contender in the 2028 US Presidential election, was not accidental. Newsom's father, William, a third-generation San Franciscan and a state appeals court judge, paved the way for his son's future interest in politics. "My father taught me everything about being an activist," Newsom wrote on Facebook in 2017. "He taught me to never back down when you are fighting for what you believe in."

After earning a degree in political science from Santa Clara University, Newsom became an entrepreneur, founding his first business at the age of 25. PlumpJack Associates, a wine store, was strategically located in the main shopping and dining area of Fillmore Street in San Francisco. Newsom co-founded the store with billionaire oil heir William Getty. His father was a close friend and business associate of William's father, Gordon Getty, serving as a financial advisor for Getty's businesses.

This wine venture was the beginning of a series of business partnerships for Newsom, eventually expanding to include boutique hotels, wineries, bars, and restaurants. Within a decade, Newsom went from a cash-strapped entrepreneur to a fully-fledged millionaire. "He is a significant figure in a big state. This guy is well-connected," said Joe Siracusa, a professor of political history and international security and presidential scholar. "He has connections to savvy investors, to Silicon Valley, and to farmers. His connections aren't just from his family, but also from his business partners."

"His political career has been about getting along with different types of communities (necessary to be elected Governor of California or hold any other office in the state)." Newsom's ties to the old San Francisco elite may have contributed to his early success, but these connections remain a subject of close scrutiny. His critics portray him as someone who comes from wealth and privilege, and while the governor does not deny his father's extensive network of friends, he has tried to shed more light on his upbringing. "My life was work. Mom cried at night from the struggle and the pressure," he told the Associated Press in 2018.

Newsom eventually transitioned from business to politics, serving under California Democratic power broker Willie Brown, before being appointed to the city's Parking and Traffic Commission. At 36, he became the youngest mayor of San Francisco in a century, and in his first year in office, he surprised many by winning over his opponents with a series of popular initiatives. His decision to direct city officials to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples catapulted him onto the national stage and made him a highly controversial figure in the ensuing fierce debate.

The then-unknown mayor became embroiled in a public fight with then-President George W. Bush, who called for a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage. Dubbed "the next Bill Clinton" by magazines, Newsom continued to champion other social issues, including homelessness and healthcare initiatives. But just as his popularity was rising, a photo shoot with his then-wife, Kimberly Guilfoyle, for Harper's Bazaar magazine appeared on newsstands across the country.

You may remember Guilfoyle now as a former advisor to Trump and a rumored ex-girlfriend of Donald Trump. She was also reportedly Trump's pick for ambassador to Greece. In the photos, Newsom is seen wearing designer suits, holding Guilfoyle while lying on a luxurious carpet in socialite Ann Getty's Pacific Heights home. "I was completely stunned when I saw him lying on the floor," Nancy Collins, a journalist for the magazine, told New York Magazine. "How many politicians would pose on the floor with their wife for Harper's Bazaar? It was a sexy picture, politically speaking. They were like Marc Anthony and Cleopatra."

Three years later, Newsom was once again at the center of controversy when he admitted to having an affair with his former campaign manager's wife while divorcing Guilfoyle. Observers at the time believed that this would, like the previous photo shoot, overshadow his political ambitions, but it did not stop his meteoric rise within the Democratic Party, nor did it prevent him from becoming Governor of California. Newsom married American documentary filmmaker and actress Jennifer Siebel Newsom in 2008.

Widely regarded as a charismatic and dynamic leader, he is now a prominent and popular figure on the national stage. Just months ago, he was briefly touted as a potential contender for the 2024 presidential race. When George Clooney pressured Joe Biden in a New York Times op-ed to step aside and let someone else lead the Democratic Party into the election, some names began to circulate. Kamala Harris was the obvious choice, but who else would dare to challenge her?

Newsom kept a low profile, choosing to let Harris take the spotlight. He had told a journalist in 1998 that he wanted to be President of the United States, and since then, he has taken very strategic steps to get closer to the Oval Office. Running a campaign outside of the primaries, simply to counter a resurgent Donald Trump, was not part of his plan. So, when Kamala Harris delivered her concession speech to a crowd at Howard University, the question became: who's next?

Politically, Newsom has done several things for a Democratic Party that is in an identity crisis and is stagnating. "He is progressive. But he also appeals to the business community because he is a small business owner," said Dr. Siracusa. Newsom, a successful campaigner from a large state, has used his platform and national television appearances to oppose Trump and advocate for the Democratic Party. Of course, California is a solid blue state, but in 2024, native Senator Harris performed worse than Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020.

In the November election, all but a very small California county swung to Trump. This election has left the Democratic Party in desperate need of a hero who can lead the party into a new era, one in which they learn their lessons and can achieve victory four years later, with the end of the Trump era. "In America, at this critical moment, the Democratic Party needs a leader. In America, as in Australia, perception is almost equivalent to reality," said Dr. Siracusa. Dr. Siracusa said that Newsom would have been well-suited to be that leader, but the crisis of the past two weeks has given him "some problems."

"When you see famous movie stars on television indirectly criticizing the guy, like, 'What happened to the Palisades Reservoir?', 'Why are firefighters being paid so little?'... We even saw a member of the Kardashian family complaining that prisoners are only making $1 an hour (for fighting fires)," he said. "When you have that kind of political fire, you have to deal with it. He's in a very unique space, he was expected to be the next president of the United States."

"Unless he can manage to get out of it, he can say goodbye to the White House." Within days of the wildfires sweeping through Los Angeles on January 7, it became clear that the raging fires would become one of the largest natural disasters in California's history. After months of no significant rainfall, Southern California was particularly vulnerable, and when strong Santa Ana winds met the extremely dry brush this month, it provided the perfect ignition conditions for small sparks to turn into multiple fast-moving fires.

Firefighters worked around the clock to stop the flames from spreading across different parts of Los Angeles, despite facing water shortages, changing weather conditions, and apocalyptic scenes. But as they went about their life-saving work, residents began to question the severity and scale of the tragedy unfolding before them, and whether their governor had let them down. Newsom may not have control over the weather, but as the leader of a state that is extremely vulnerable to extreme fire disasters, he can prepare for it.

Political heavyweights in the United States have also begun playing the blame game. The nature of politics is that opposing sides will seek out and exploit the perceived failures of their rivals. After all, this is how political parties vie for power. When tragedy strikes, especially when it attracts national and international attention, calls for unity and bipartisan cooperation can quickly disappear in the din of political point-scoring. So, it is no surprise that the progressive California leader, a Democrat who has long championed social and environmental causes, has found himself under attack by Donald Trump as wildfires rage across the state.

"One of the best and most beautiful areas of the USA is being burned to the ground. It has been reduced to ashes, and Gavin Newscum should resign. It's all his fault!!!" Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. Newsom and the president-elect have often clashed since the former president gave the California governor a derogatory nickname and criticized his homelessness policies. But this latest series of attacks carries extra weight as Trump prepares to enter the White House and the Republican Party takes over the federal wildfire response.

While many of Trump's criticisms stem from misinformation, focusing on a 2020 proposal to divert water from Northern California to southern farmlands, it is unclear whether he will use this information to block aid from flowing to the state once he takes office. Joe Biden has pledged that the federal government will cover 100% of California's disaster relief costs for the next 180 days, but Trump has a long history of using aid as a political tool against Democrats.

"We know that Trump is not afraid to do this. In fact, he relishes this opportunity," said Emma Shortis, director of the International and Security Affairs Program at the Australian Institute and an expert on US issues. "...He has always used these kinds of events to gain political advantage." The president-elect slammed Newsom for refusing to sign a "water restoration declaration that could have allowed millions of gallons of water" to fight the fires. In 2020, Trump tried to divert water from Northern California to southern farmlands, but Newsom opposed it, and the California Attorney General blocked the measure, citing potential harm to endangered fish.

Experts told the BBC that the issue "has nothing to do with the availability of water currently being used for firefighting," and Newsom called any link between fish and the fires "inexcusable because it is inaccurate." But as the political fallout festers, with bizarre conspiracy theories and misinformation being spread online, the wildfire crisis has exposed weaknesses in the state's infrastructure and governance. Questions about fire equipment, adequate funding for emergency fire departments, and the safety net of insurance have all come under close scrutiny.

"Democrats are in some ways responsible for the situation they find themselves in, that the state and the state's institutions have been hollowed out under decades of neglect," said Dr. Shortis. "...So, elected officials find themselves in this predicament where people want the state to function, they crave leadership, they crave the infrastructure and support of the government. But they also don't trust these institutions... These institutions are also under constant attack from the far right."

"So, it's a very difficult political situation for Democrats, but they have also been complicit in creating it." Newsom has already announced an independent state investigation into the loss of water pressure and lack of water at key reservoirs during the wildfires. The state's largest reservoirs are currently almost all above their historical averages for this time of year, but the 442 million liter San Inez Reservoir, located near Pacific Palisades, was closed and empty for maintenance when the fires broke out. Its closure may have limited the water system's ability to provide sustained pressure for firefighters, but a former general manager of the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power said that it was unlikely to have had a major impact on the battle against the Palisades fire.

"People aren't stupid. They can see a full reservoir and they can see an empty reservoir. And it's been empty since it ran out of water in February. Why? I mean that question should be answered. Newsom could have fixed that... He's the boss," said Dr. Siracusa. "Now he's being attacked for not fixing it beforehand. You know he can't stop these things, but you can fill the Palisades reservoir." Newsom's political problems are not just coming from the opposing camp. His Democratic rivals will also be watching closely.

"The criticism of this guy will come from within the Democratic Party, from political platforms or political staff working for other people. So, they see him as the frontrunner, and they will use this fire and his response to push him out," said Dr. Siracusa. Currently, the narrative is about the alleged incompetence of city and state officials, and Trump is doing his best to fuel the ideological criticisms. "He has a team. They can see that this looks really bad and that it looks like he is not in control of his people," said Dr. Siracusa. "He has to micromanage the narrative, he has to convince people... that he has done everything possible to make it right."

"Americans love a redemption story. They love these people who are able to come back. I think every word that Governor Newsom says right now is being measured by his team to see how it will be interpreted." As the independent investigation seeks answers, the governor will have to navigate growing anger over California's crisis response, while also coordinating the rapidly evolving wildfire response. In natural disasters, messaging is critical. Since the outbreak of the wildfires, Newsom has tried to seize the initiative amid criticism of him from all sides.

He has frequently posted information about the resources California has deployed to fight the fires, aggressively pursued the state's resources, and met with US President Joe Biden on Sunday to hear a briefing from fire officials. He has also invited Trump to visit and has called on him not to block valuable aid from flowing in, as he has done in the past. But given the scale of the tragedy unfolding in California, Democrats and Newsom will inevitably suffer political backlash. "I think the consequences for Democrats are certainly more than just electoral politics when they are facing an opponent like Donald Trump and the Republican Party that is so good at using these types of crises to deflect from real responsibility," said Dr. Shortis.

The next general election is four years away, and the midterms are only two years away. If you look at the calendar, it seems that Democrats and Newsom have time to recover, but in the world's largest election machine, in reality, hopefuls are always fundraising and always campaigning. For Californians who have lost loved ones, homes, and livelihoods, a few years will not ease the pain. "(Newsom) is trying to say that he was overwhelmed by nature, and he was indeed overwhelmed by nature,... but he will have to deal with the rebuilding of these places," said Dr. Siracusa.

Newsom has long used his political position in California to prepare for the role he truly wants. Now, a perfect storm of weather events, supported by alleged administrative failures, has given him his biggest test. As analysts have noted, whether Newsom can recover will likely depend largely on his ability to help communities recover.