Trump tariffs unlikely to hurt Turkish economy and could boost EU ties

Experts say that the wide-ranging tariffs implemented by U.S. President Donald Trump are not expected to have a significant impact on the Turkish economy, and may even help Ankara strengthen its economic partnership with Europe. Trump imposes varying degrees of import tariffs on countries around the world, and the 10% tariff on Turkey is among the lowest levels.

Many observers believe that Washington has not imposed higher tariffs on Ankara because of the good personal relationship between Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. However, the trade relationship between the two countries is already fairly balanced. For example, Turkey's trade surplus with the United States last year was only $200 million, with exports of $16.4 billion and imports of $16.2 billion.

Timothy Ash, a financial analyst who has long invested in Turkey, said that Ankara has gotten the best outcome from Trump's tariff policies. "We're not seeing Turkey in the headlines, which is always a good thing," Ash told Middle East Eye. "The impact on Ankara will be minimal." Ash also pointed out that the potential global trade war triggered by tariffs could slow global economic growth and lead to lower oil prices, which is a positive development for energy-dependent countries like Turkey, as Turkey is a net energy importer.

Ash also stated that tariffs may prompt European countries to turn inward and seek closer cooperation with Turkey, especially in the defense manufacturing sector. An economist at a large global investment firm noted that Trump had already imposed a 25% tariff on Turkish steel and aluminum during his first term. "Now that the same tariffs apply to all major steel producers, Turkish steel may be competitive again," the economist, who declined to be named, told Middle East Eye. Turkey is one of the world's top ten steel producers.

Sinan Ulgen, a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, pointed out that imposing a 39% tariff on EU goods could increase Turkey's competitiveness in Western markets. While Turkey is part of the EU Customs Union, it is not obligated to follow the EU's retaliatory tariffs against the United States, which gives Ankara some flexibility in trade policy. Ulgen said that Ankara may impose a 10% reciprocal tariff on U.S. goods, but the bigger challenge will come from Chinese exporters. "They may increase their market share in Turkey to make up for losses in the U.S., posing fierce competition to Turkish companies, especially in the Middle East and North Africa," he told Middle East Eye.

He also stated that in the context of changing global trade patterns, Brussels may seek closer cooperation with Ankara, providing Turkey with an opportunity to deepen its economic and diplomatic relations with Western partners. However, Ulgen emphasized that this partnership requires more than just transactional cooperation: it requires a shared commitment to democratic values. Given the reduced guarantees offered by the United States, the EU has been exploring closer security cooperation with Ankara, but Turkey's recent domestic developments have raised concerns in Europe.

Last week, Turkish authorities arrested Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu on corruption charges, who is Erdogan's main competitor in the upcoming elections. The move was widely condemned by EU lawmakers as politically motivated, with some comparing it to actions taken by Russia. Ulgen noted that since Trump took office, there has been talk of updating the Customs Union agreement or granting Turkish citizens visa-free travel. However, due to concerns about Turkey's democratic backsliding, the Imamoglu case may have closed that window.