Vanuatu holds snap election as nation braces for costly post-earthquake reconstruction effort

Fashion designer Jenny Banga is busy trying to make a living after last month’s deadly 7.3 magnitude earthquake in Vanuatu. Her shop is closed as the central business district of the capital, Port Vila, is shut down while surveyors assess the damage to buildings. As the country heads to the polls for a national election today, she is busy sewing and selling clothes at a new location outside the city center, rather than focusing on politics.

“I’m focusing on finding a place where I can earn an income. I’m not sure who I’ll vote for yet,” Ms Banga said. Almost a month after the December 17 earthquake that killed at least 14 people, voters are heading to the polls with the memory of recent aftershocks still fresh in their minds. Businesses in the central business district have been unable to reopen and some buildings are expected to be demolished. Meanwhile, campaigning has been taking place across Vanuatu.

Today, voters across the archipelago will choose 52 seats in parliament from 217 candidates. The next government, once formed, will face the task of rebuilding after the earthquake, which is expected to cost at least 29 billion vatu (about $374 million USD), a huge sum for the developing nation. These reconstruction efforts are already overwhelming the country, which is also struggling with the economic impact of three tropical cyclones in 2023, the collapse of an airline and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Furthermore, with the country facing its fourth change of government in just under two years, observers also say stable leadership is needed if Vanuatu is to recover from these compounding disasters. Some voters say the tasks ahead will influence their choices at the ballot box. Anne Pakoa, a Vanuatu human rights advocate, said the disaster has also left many traumatized. “It’s going to have a big impact on the election. Firstly, do people feel safe to go and vote at the polling station,” she said. “Secondly, do people have the money to get on a bus or taxi to go to the polling station? These things are likely to hinder the voting process.”

A fresh round of political turmoil triggered Vanuatu’s snap election last November, and coincidentally, the vote date fell shortly after the December earthquake. When the opposition tried to oust the government with a motion of no confidence, the president dissolved parliament at the request of ministers, and the country had to hold elections within the constitutionally mandated two-month timeframe. Observers say the public is already weary of political infighting, after just supporting reforms aimed at stabilizing the country’s politics in a referendum last May. Ms Pakoa said this may affect voter turnout in this election. “I’ve spoken to communities, and a lot of people are refusing to vote,” she said. “They say, ‘I don’t want to waste my time because if I vote, they’re just going to go to parliament and fight.’”

Some election candidates are sensing an appetite for change and are promising a new way of doing politics. Mike Esrom Kaun, who leads Vanuatu’s “Red Movement” calling for an end to political instability, is running as an independent candidate. “People are frustrated, they are tired and they realize something has to be done, and the recent disaster has amplified that,” he said. “They realize that the leadership has to change.” Even before the earthquake and last year’s political upheaval, voter turnout in Vanuatu was declining. In the 2022 snap election, less than half of registered voters cast a ballot. Some observers have noted another concerning figure in this election: there are only seven women candidates, including one incumbent, a low number even compared to recent elections, according to Vanuatu scholar and political expert Anna Naupa. She said this is likely due to the short notice of the snap election, which disadvantages less established candidates.

Vanuatu is experienced in dealing with natural disasters, including frequent tropical cyclones. But government officials and the public say the earthquake, which struck the country’s most populous and developed city, is a different kind of crisis. Vanuatu will have to bring in demolition experts, and it is not clear how the rebuilding of buildings will be funded. Tess Newton Cain, an adjunct associate professor at the Griffith Asia Institute, said the earthquake will be a major issue for voters in Port Vila and the main island of Efate. “The ability of candidates to tell them about the rebuild is going to be critical in how they vote,” she said. Ms Pakoa said many homes outside of Port Vila’s central business district also need to be rebuilt, and engineers are needed to advise residents on making their homes resilient to future earthquakes.

The city’s rebuilding is expected to take years, and as the nation prepares for the reconstruction effort, voters say they want leaders who will put them first. “They have to go to the communities to know the needs of the people, and to help the people,” said voter Elizabeth Tor. Another voter, Mark Kalotap, said the country’s leaders should find ways to make the economy more resilient to natural disasters. “We have had a strong earthquake,” he said. “We can’t stop cyclones, because Vanuatu is in their path. We can’t stop floods, they will come. Earthquakes will come. But the economy must be strong to ensure that when these things happen, we can recover quickly.”

Some candidates are promising to rebuild Port Vila as “the best capital in the Pacific”, while others are making the economy the center of their campaigns. Andrew Wilbur Napuat, a businessman from Vanuatu’s Tanna Island, is running for parliament, promising to help more ni-Vanuatu people get into business and make the country more economically self-sufficient. A candidate from the moderate bloc, who is using the campaign slogan “Make Vanuatu Great Again”, said it is meant to send a message of hope that the country can tackle its mounting challenges, including the collapse of Air Vanuatu. “When I tell people let’s make Vanuatu great again, I know that they want us to rebuild our country through this election, to only choose good leaders who understand politics,” he said.

Ms Naupa said the caretaker government in place when the earthquake struck was limited in the decisions it could make. Parliament also had not approved a national budget before it was dissolved last year. “That will be the first priority for the new government,” Ms Naupa said. She said the next government should first be accountable for a 100-day action plan for earthquake recovery and reconstruction. Dr Newton Cain said people are looking for strong leadership to deal with the post-earthquake rebuild, and will vote accordingly. “People really want to know that those that they elect … [will] hopefully put Vanuatu on a path where people feel that they’re not just surviving, but that they’re actually in a position to start thriving.”