Han Zheng: The Chinese leader attending Trump's inauguration?

China will dispatch Vice President Han Zheng to attend U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration ceremony on Monday, marking the first time a high-ranking Chinese leader has personally attended a U.S. presidential inauguration. This breaks with the tradition of foreign leaders typically not attending U.S. presidential inaugurations, despite Trump having invited leaders from multiple countries, including Chinese President Xi Jinping, to attend.

The Chinese side has stated its hope to cooperate with the new U.S. administration to "find the right way for the two countries to get along in the new era." However, Beijing is also preparing for potential scenarios during Trump's presidency, including new tariffs on Chinese-made imports and more confrontational rhetoric. U.S. Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio has described China as "the biggest and most sophisticated adversary the U.S. has ever faced."

President Xi Jinping has never attended any inauguration or coronation ceremonies during his tenure, choosing instead to send representatives. China's ambassador to the U.S. attended both the 2017 and 2021 presidential inaugurations. However, Beijing has sent vice presidents to such ceremonies in other countries, for example, Han Zheng attended Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto's inauguration in October 2023. His predecessor, Wang Qishan, also attended the inaugurations of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in 2022 and Brazilian President Lula da Silva in 2023.

Neil Thomas, a China political researcher at the Asia Society Policy Institute, said that Xi's decision to send Han Zheng to the U.S. indicates he "wants to engage Trump in a transactional mode but doesn't want to be a bit player in the Trump show on January 20." Other foreign leaders invited to attend the inauguration include Argentine President Javier Milei and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

Trump's spokesperson, Karoline Leavitt, told U.S. media that the invitation to Xi was "an example of Trump establishing open dialogue with leaders of not only allies, but also adversaries and competitors." Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington, believes it may also be an attempt by Trump to show the world "he has the ability to influence Xi Jinping's decisions, and that they have a special relationship."

Earlier reports suggested that some Trump advisors wanted Cai Qi to attend. Cai Qi is widely regarded as Xi Jinping's right-hand man, is 66 years old, and is a member of the Politburo Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, equivalent to a member of China's cabinet. The Financial Times, citing an unnamed source familiar with the matter, said that Trump would be "unhappy" if the Chinese envoy was "only at the level of Han Zheng or (Foreign Minister) Wang Yi." However, the BBC has not been able to verify these claims.

Chong Ja Ian, a non-resident scholar at the Carnegie China, said that as vice president, 70-year-old Han Zheng holds a "very senior position" in the Chinese state system, and sending him is a "courtesy to Trump." Han Zheng was appointed vice president in March 2023 and is known as "Number Eight," the highest-ranking leader after the seven members of the Politburo Standing Committee. Before Xi Jinping began his historic third term in October 2022 and appointed his most trusted deputies to key positions, Han Zheng was also a member of the Politburo Standing Committee.

Han Zheng spent most of his political career in Shanghai, where he was born. In 2007, he served as an aide to Xi Jinping, who was then the Shanghai Party Secretary, before taking on the position himself in 2012. During his tenure as vice president, foreign affairs have been a major focus. He led a team promoting the "Belt and Road" initiative and was in charge of the steering committee for the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics.

But Han Zheng is no longer a member of the Politburo Standing Committee, which may be a key consideration in Beijing's decision to send him. "From the Party's perspective, if US-China relations deteriorate, Xi and the Party will be able to show that they have maintained a certain distance from Trump," said Professor Chong. Mr. Thomas believes that the fact that Han Zheng is not considered part of Xi's inner circle also favors sending him. "Xi trusts Han Zheng enough to carry out this task, but Han Zheng is not a key ally, and if things go wrong, he can be safely blamed."