Israel has changed since Donald Trump's last term – has he? - Voice of Asia

Donald Trump has already made his influence felt in the Middle East, even before he officially begins his second term in the Oval Office. He has undercut delaying tactics by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his ultra-nationalist coalition partners to avoid accepting a ceasefire deal proposed by Joe Biden last May.

The pressure from the US on Hamas and other Palestinian groups is a given. Under Biden, pressure on Israel has never been exploited. Trump, starting his second term, claiming he has reasons to contribute to a Gaza ceasefire deal, can enjoy some of the glory. Netanyahu, on the other hand, is facing a coalition crisis, the whole principle of a deal with Hamas being anathema to the ultra-nationalist politicians who support his government.

One of them, the national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, has said his party, “Jewish Power,” will only support the government if it resumes the war, cuts off all aid to Gaza, and destroys Hamas, otherwise he will resign. This is of no concern to Donald Trump. The push for a Gaza ceasefire indicates that Trump will put his presidential interests above the political needs of the Israeli prime minister.

Joe Biden, on the other hand, in his determination to support Israel, has risked losing swing state votes in the US presidential election, despite his unease at Israel’s killing of civilians in Gaza and depriving them of food, medical care, shelter, and clean water. Israel’s nationalist right was delighted by Trump’s landslide victory in November, believing he would give them more freedom than Biden, but the reality may be more complex. Just as Israel is no longer the country Trump left behind in 2021 when he left office, Trump may no longer be the president they first encountered.

The first signs of how Trump as president would deal with the Middle East, and the conclusions drawn from them, came on a hot early summer’s day in the second year of Trump’s presidency. If you lived outside of Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories, you might be forgiven for not remembering the day, the events of May 14, 2018. After all, there has been terrible bloodshed since Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, that specific day in the Gaza war can easily be forgotten. But in a world where most people get their news online, that day is also known as the ultimate “split-screen moment.”

On one side of the news feed was the Trump administration’s most photogenic couple, the first daughter, Ivanka, and her husband, Jared Kushner, who was also a senior adviser to the president. They were in Jerusalem to open the new US embassy. Moving the embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel was one of Trump’s campaign promises, mainly aimed at the evangelical Christians who made up his voter base. For the Israeli politicians present and the wealthy American donors to Donald Trump and Israel, Ivanka and Jared’s appearance was the icing on the cake.

On the other side of the screen, Israeli soldiers were firing into Gaza, killing and injuring Palestinians trying to breach the border fence. Between 50 and 60 Palestinians were killed that day and many more suffered terrible gunshot wounds. This was the culmination of what Hamas, the rulers of Gaza, called the “Great March of Return.” Thousands took part in the march. Small groups, mostly young men, were advancing on the wire. About a kilometer away were thousands of peaceful protesters. Families were picnicking on the beach, screaming and running away as Israeli drones bombed them with tear gas.

Hamas commanders must have concluded that mass protests alone could not break through Israel. On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched a much larger and better-planned attack, catching Israel by surprise, they broke through the border, killing around 1,200 people, mostly Israeli civilians, and taking 251 people hostage into Gaza. In the subsequent war, Israel has retaliated terribly, reducing much of Gaza to rubble and, according to figures from the Hamas-run health ministry, killing nearly 50,000 people. Israel insists the figures are exaggerated, but a new study in the British medical journal The Lancet suggests that the Palestinian health ministry’s “mortality reports underestimate by 41%.”

All US presidents have supported Israel. But the lesson that Israel’s nationalist right drew from their side of the split-screen was that Donald Trump would be unusually accommodating to them. The embassy move showed that Trump was prepared to break with conventional wisdom that he saw as holding back US interests. He abandoned the long-standing policy of Israel’s Western allies, and most other countries, to keep their embassies in Tel Aviv until a peace deal with the Palestinians decided the permanent status of Jerusalem.

The embassy opening celebration came in the same week that he announced that the US was pulling out of the nuclear deal with Iran, which he called “one of the worst and most one-sided transactions the US has ever signed.” He also satisfied his desire to overturn the biggest foreign policy achievement of his predecessor, Barack Obama. Trump’s abandonment of the Iran deal was the culmination of a long campaign by Netanyahu. In March 2019, Donald Trump further endorsed Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, Syrian territory that has been occupied by Israel since the 1967 Middle East War.

Recognizing Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights broke the consensus, reached by Western countries since the Second World War, that nations should not acquire territory through military action. In 2020, the Trump administration gave Israel another prize. Jared Kushner brokered the “Abraham Accords” between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, Sudan, and Bahrain. The US offered inducements to these four countries in exchange for their cooperation. They were persuaded to abandon the long-standing Arab peace initiative that promised Israel full recognition in exchange for allowing Palestinians to have their own state in Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem. For Israel, it amounted to a free gift.

Biden, like Trump in his first term, wants to extend the Abraham Accords to Saudi Arabia. Saudi recognition of Israel, Saudi Arabia being the custodian of Islam’s two holiest sites, the leader of the Sunni Muslim world, and the richest and most powerful Arab nation, would be hugely significant. In return, Saudi Arabia would get a comprehensive security deal with the US, which would, of course, include more arms deals. It’s not just the lucrative business opportunities for all concerned, although these exist and are attractive.

The argument is that this would stabilize the volatile Middle East. A US-Saudi security deal would also be a good way for Washington to outflank China, whose rise includes a strong interest in the Gulf, its oil, its money, and its strategic position. But that leaves the Palestinians. The Saudis launched the Arab Peace Initiative at the turn of the century. They have insisted they are not prepared to sacrifice Palestinian rights for a deal with Israel and the US, as of before October 7. But Hamas and other Palestinians believe that this is happening.

They see this as the latest sign that the Palestinian cause is being “forgotten and removed from the negotiating table,” as Khalil al-Hayya, a Hamas leader and chief ceasefire negotiator, told me in Doha last October. He said they attacked Israel 12 months ago because “the rights of the Palestinians were not being considered by anyone.” “It was necessary to alert the world that there is a people here with a cause, with demands that must be met. This was a blow to Israel, this Zionist enemy.”

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the country’s de facto ruler, has accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza. Even so, the Saudis have made it clear they are still interested in a US-brokered deal to normalize relations with Israel. Prince Mohammed has said publicly that his price is irreversible progress towards Palestinian independence. Mike Waltz, the incoming national security adviser to Donald Trump, has already said that a peace deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia is a “top priority” for the president.

In December, he told a conservative commentator in the US that it was necessary to “eliminate these terrorist groups,” free the hostages, and move towards a deal with Riyadh. He said that had Trump not lost the 2020 election to Biden, they could have had a deal by creating a common front against Iran, Saudi Arabia’s rival in the Gulf, rather than “putting the Palestinian issue at the center.”

The problem with this approach is that Saudi Arabia has publicly linked its cooperation to Palestinian rights. The Biden administration agrees that the key to a grand bargain that transforms the Middle East is not just Arab states accepting Israel, but also Israel accepting the rights of Palestinians. On January 14, as he prepared to leave office, Biden’s Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, made this clear in a speech to the Atlantic Council in Washington. Blinken, a staunch supporter of Israel, whose speech was interrupted by protesters accusing him of genocide in Gaza, also had some harsh words for Israel.

“Israelis have to decide what kind of relationship they want to have with Palestinians. It can’t be the fantasy that Palestinians will accept being non-people with no national rights.” “Seven million Israeli Jews and about five million Palestinians are rooted in the same land. Neither is going anywhere.” He added: “Israelis must abandon the myth that they can carry on with de facto annexation without compromising Israel’s democracy, standing, and security.”

Those de facto, cost-free annexations are exactly what many on Israel’s hard right hope Trump will allow. Perhaps he will. He is no friend of the Palestinians. But there is already a hope among his Western allies that the transactional Trump may be more flexible than Joe Biden, a self-declared Zionist, especially if he wants the Saudis to join the Abraham Accords. Peace in the Middle East is perhaps the biggest prize in global diplomacy because it is so elusive and, at the moment, so distant.

What price is Donald Trump prepared to pay for a deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel? Prince Mohammed bin Salman has already said what his price is – a Palestinian state. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says the Palestinians will never get an independent state. It is unlikely that Donald Trump will be able to coerce Mohammed bin Salman to change his position. MBS’s Saudi Arabia is too powerful, and the Riyadh invitation to the president of China will make Americans nervous.

It is a moment of hard choices. President Trump will have much to consider as he re-enters the White House after his inauguration.