China's Foreign Ministry stated that, under China's mediation, major ethnic rebel groups in Myanmar and the military government have signed a ceasefire agreement. This ceasefire involves the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), which had previously occupied large swathes of territory along the Myanmar-China border, and the agreement took effect last Saturday. The two sides had previously reached a peace agreement last year, but it was not adhered to.
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02-08, 2025Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stated at a regular press conference in Beijing that the agreement was facilitated in the middle of this month. "We hope that all parties will maintain the momentum of the ceasefire and talks, earnestly implement existing consensus, actively de-escalate the local situation, and further resolve relevant issues through dialogue," Ms. Mao said. She added that China is ready to actively promote talks and provide support for the peace process in northern Myanmar. She did not disclose the details of the agreement, and the Myanmar military government has not immediately commented on the ceasefire.
China is the most important foreign ally of Myanmar's military government. The Myanmar military seized power in February 2021 after overthrowing the elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi, sparking nationwide peaceful protests that eventually escalated into civil war. Beijing has significant geopolitical and economic interests in Myanmar and is deeply concerned about instability in the border region. The MNDAA, composed of ethnic Kokang people, announced a unilateral ceasefire last year and called for dialogue under China's auspices. The group is a member of the "Three Brotherhood Alliance," which launched attacks along the Myanmar-China border in October 2023.
Bill Hayton, a Myanmar expert at the British think tank Chatham House, said that China's involvement in this agreement fully illustrates its goals. "China's biggest concern in Myanmar is the fragmentation of the state," Dr. Hayton said. "While China used the Three Brotherhood Alliance to achieve its own goals earlier, it is now worried that they are too successful, basically telling them to stop trying to overthrow the military government and instead behave themselves." He believes that China's main goal is to prevent the situation in Myanmar from further deteriorating and to maintain stability in the border region.
Myanmar researcher Kim Jolliffe said that despite setbacks from the resistance movement in multiple areas, the military government still maintains significant control across the country. "The military government has a capacity that other actors don't have, which is to play a major role in every state and region," he said. He noted that it will be important to observe how ethnic armed groups along the Chinese border use their influence to renegotiate trade agreements with China. While Beijing has been facilitating ceasefire talks along its border, it has not engaged with other areas currently controlled by armed groups, such as the Arakan Army, which controls much of western Myanmar's Rakhine State. According to local media reports, China has reopened border crossings connected to areas controlled by the MNDAA and the United Wa State Army, another powerful rebel group in eastern Shan State.
