Alex de Minaur faces a harsh reality after another Jannik Sinner beatdown at the Australian Open

For Alex de Minaur and the thousands of Australian fans who packed into Rod Laver Arena, it was supposed to be a special night. The 25-year-old was in peak form heading into his match against world No.1 and defending Australian Open champion, Jannik Sinner.

De Minaur was coming off a career-best run to the Australian Open quarter-finals. During the off-season, he had visibly bulked up and added power in order to compete with the top players on the men's tour. More importantly, Sinner was reportedly under the weather heading into the match, with the Italian battling pneumonia, which forced him to move his pre-match training indoors to avoid the spotlight. It was thought that this match would be de Minaur's opportunity to cement his place amongst the true elite of the men's tour.

What followed, however, was a brutal beatdown that has the potential to alter the trajectory of de Minaur's career, for better or worse. The loss was so emphatic that de Minaur admitted in his post-match reflections that he felt like he'd been "slapped in the face." John McEnroe’s description of the match on Channel Nine as a "heavyweight versus a middleweight" may give you a better understanding of how the match unfolded.

The good news for de Minaur is that becoming a perennial quarter-finalist at tennis grand slams is by no means a bad result. The last time de Minaur didn’t reach the fourth round of a major was at Wimbledon in 2023. The otherworldly level of play exhibited by Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer over the past two decades has skewed the perception of how difficult it is for most players to reach the second week of a grand slam. The early exit of two-time Australian Open finalist Daniil Medvedev this year is proof that even the very best on tour aren't guaranteed a deep run.

De Minaur doesn't have to look far for inspiration on how a quarter-final run can quickly turn into a potential grand slam final. In 2022, Nick Kyrgios rode his best form, along with some draw luck, to a Wimbledon final, after Rafael Nadal was forced to withdraw from their semi-final due to injury. By staying healthy, being consistent, and with some unexpected results in other matches, you can suddenly find yourself in a semi or final. De Minaur seems like he's been around forever, so it's hard to believe that he is only 25 years old and entering his absolute prime over the next five years.

Roger Federer won half of his 20 grand slam titles between the ages of 25 and 30. De Minaur will almost certainly not reach that level, but he is more than capable of having some of the deepest runs of his career in the remainder of this decade. “It’s pretty hard for me to sit here and tell you that after this loss I believe I can go all the way, but even so, I do think that the opportunity is there,” de Minaur dejectedly told reporters after his loss to Sinner. “If I was in a different draw, a different section, then who knows? I really think I'd give myself a chance, I don't think my ceiling is a quarter-final at a slam. I see other guys going further, getting to semis, getting to finals, and I do believe I can be in that mix, right? If they can do it, then why can't I?”

Sinner may have an undefeated record against de Minaur, including two wins in finals, but the Italian doesn't see himself as being on a completely different level to the Australian. “In the past matches [against de Minaur], there have been some matches that were close,” he said. “If we take, for example, the final of Rotterdam last year, that could have gone both ways. On the other hand, I always have to expect that he is bringing something different. You know, every time we play, you never know what is going to happen. So I have to be prepared for everything. Today I was prepared.”

Throughout his 10-year career, de Minaur's game has steadily improved year after year. But the problem, and the brutal reality that de Minaur and his team must confront, is that these incremental improvements may not be enough to break through the Sinner-Alcaraz-Djokovic wall. Despite his ever-present optimism and never-say-die attitude, deep down, de Minaur must wonder if he is truly capable of beating those three, and others of their ilk, in a best-of-five set match. Overcoming that mental hurdle will be key to de Minaur finally breaking through against the giants of the men's tour.

The strength of de Minaur’s game is that he rarely beats himself. He easily dispatches lower-ranked opponents by not giving away cheap points and retrieving every ball. However, when facing the world's best, the tables are turned, and suddenly, it is de Minaur’s opponents who are forcing him into errors time and time again. “What Jannik has in these situations is that his unforced error count is very low, and he hits the ball very big,” de Minaur said. “When you try to go toe-to-toe with him, naturally you're going to up your ball speed. So all of a sudden, you're putting more pressure than you normally would, which obviously causes more unforced errors unless you're feeling great and in the zone. His movement is extremely good, he can absorb and defend, and he’s great in the corners. So sometimes he can go from defense to offense very quickly. If you decide to be passive against him, he has the ability to hit those winners.”

In the wake of his loss to Sinner, the focus has been on de Minaur's 0-10 record against the Italian. To make matters worse, he is 18-51 against players ranked in the top 10. De Minaur has only recorded two wins against top 10 players at grand slams – against then No.7 Kei Nishikori at the 2019 US Open and against No.5 Medvedev at last year's French Open. De Minaur is 2-12 against top 10 opponents at grand slams. Of those 12 losses, eight have come in straight sets.

“I know all the crowd is behind me. They want me to go out there and make it more competitive, try to make a match out of it, and I'm trying,” he said. “If anything, that's what's frustrating, is that I can't. I'm trying my best, but I can't even make it a match that the crowd can get behind and start cheering. That's what he's doing so well. He's starting every set so well. Every time we play, it feels like the first three, four games he gets the break, and then all of a sudden, we never get to those later stages of the match where you can feel the score pressure, all of a sudden the rallies might get a bit tight, I can ask more questions, get the crowd involved, and all that kind of stuff.”

Finding a way to drag matches against top players into the deeper stages is where de Minaur needs to start. From there, he can use his incredible fitness to grind out wins. De Minaur described Sinner’s aura as "surreal" after his loss, which raises questions about whether he truly believes he can beat the Italian, and others of his ilk. One day, de Minaur will break through the grand slam quarter-final barrier. Before his career is over, he will eventually find a way to beat Sinner, he is too good not to. But now is the time for some soul-searching for de Minaur, and part of that is realising that at the moment, players like Sinner are simply a cut above.