Crocodile attacks in Timor-Leste are at an all-time high. In Australia, it's a different story

In a small fishing village nestled between rugged mountains and the Banda Sea in East Timor, Lino Fernandes Xavier stood with his head bowed next to his brother's grave in the local cemetery. Lino and his brothers were fishermen for generations, respected for their extensive local knowledge of fishing, until a tragedy struck 17 years ago.

“There were three brothers and two sisters in our family, but now there are only two brothers left,” Lino said. One night in 2007, Lino’s brother, Carlos Fernandes Xavier, packed his spear gun, said goodbye to his wife and children, and went fishing, but he never returned. “That night, everyone helped look for him. We were looking for his body with flashlights, but we couldn’t find him,” Lino said. “The next day, around four or five in the afternoon, we finally found him.”

Like dozens of East Timorese fishermen before him, Carlos was killed by a saltwater crocodile. Lino had warned his brother not to fish at night, as many East Timorese believe that the crocodiles that protect the local people's ancestors sleep at night, making them vulnerable to dangerous foreign crocodiles. Carlos chose to spearfish with three friends who knew the waters well for safety, but they were unable to save him when he was bitten.

Since 2007, East Timor has recorded 173 crocodile attacks on humans, 78 of which have been fatal. This number has increased 23-fold since the island nation gained independence from Indonesia in 2002, reaching an all-time high. Due to a lack of reporting infrastructure and taboos against reporting attacks, crocodile researchers believe that the actual numbers are likely underestimated. It is not known how many crocodiles there are in East Timor, but experts say there are not many habitats suitable for them to live in.

Josh Trindade, an anthropologist in Dili, said that during the 24-year Indonesian occupation, authorities often killed crocodiles in East Timor. “During the Indonesian rule, you rarely heard of attacks,” he said, “but now you hear about attacks every two weeks.” Josh said that most of the victims are poor fishermen who are desperate to earn money to support their families, and 80% of crocodile attacks occur while fishing or crabbing.

Despite the risks, Francisco Jose Manuel calmly navigates his raft on the infamous Lake Ira Lalaro, where 12 fatal attacks have occurred since 2015. This is not new to fishermen from the mountain village of Mehara. He has been working in crocodile-infested waters since he was a child. “I feel safe coming here every day,” he said, “if there is a crocodile there, leave it and continue fishing.”

According to East Timor's creation myth, the island was formed by a crocodile that sacrificed itself for a boy so that he and his descendants would have a place to live. Many locals view them as traditional ancestors, calling them “grandfathers,” and in many areas, harming or killing them is taboo. “If we respect them, they will respect us,” Francisco said. The East Timorese government has been struggling to manage the increasing number of crocodile attacks, including removing “problem” crocodiles after attacks occur, but they say that funding and access are limited.

Less than 800 kilometers across the Timor Sea, Australia’s Northern Territory has the world's largest population of saltwater crocodiles, with over 100,000. But here, the situation is very different. Australia records fewer saltwater crocodile attacks than anywhere else in the world where saltwater crocodiles live, with 44 fatal attacks since 1975, while East Timor has had 41 fatal attacks in the last nine years alone. This trend has piqued the interest of Cameron Baker, an ecologist at Charles Darwin University in the Northern Territory. “While a reduced crocodile population leading to fewer attack opportunities is a reasonable assumption, there are always other factors at play,” Dr. Baker said.

Last year, after a non-fatal attack at a popular swimming spot, the Northern Territory government increased the number of crocodiles allowed to be culled each year from 300 to 1,200, a decision that was criticized by some crocodile experts. Dr. Baker has spent the past year studying the crocodile population in the Northern Territory and comparing it to the number of attacks. As part of his research, he analyzed five scenarios simulating different levels of culling to see if it could make the area safer. He found that even if 90,000 crocodiles were culled from the wild population, the number of attacks would only be reduced by one per year. “The reduction in attack risk is very small compared to the number of crocodiles we would have to euthanize in the wild,” he said.

Dr. Baker estimates that a culling program of this magnitude would reduce the crocodile population in the Northern Territory to critically endangered levels and cost over $80 million. He says that instead of culling, education campaigns would be cheaper and more effective at protecting the people of the Northern Territory. Professor Grahame Webb has been studying crocodiles in the Northern Territory for over 40 years and has played a key role in the recovery of the crocodile population there. He believes that if the Northern Territory had not invested so much in crocodile management and education, it might have experienced similar crocodile attacks to those in East Timor. “Australians should be incredibly proud of the great recovery of crocodiles in the north,” he said.

The crocodile population in the Northern Territory has increased from 3,000 to 100,000 over the past 50 years, leading to a slight increase in attacks, until the 2000s, when the number began to decline. Professor Webb attributes the decline to investment in management and education programs that aim to make people "croc wise" by teaching them about crocodile behavior and maintaining a safe distance from waterways. The Northern Territory Country Liberal Government told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation that it has begun discussions with the East Timorese government to help the country strengthen its crocodile management strategy as part of a broader strategic partnership agreement between the two governments.

Early discussions are expected to focus on information sharing on crocodile management, the Croc Wise primary school program, the design of crocodile traps, and training and support around crocodile population assessments. Professor Webb hopes to see Australia provide its northern neighbor with crocodile management knowledge, saying that they are facing a “real humanitarian problem.” He hopes to provide some funding to help, but also recognizes that it is a delicate and difficult task. With much of the population dependent on waterways for their livelihoods, coupled with strong cultural ties to “grandfather crocodiles,” the challenges facing East Timor are very different from the management approaches in Australia.

“We have to try to help,” Professor Webb said, explaining that the issue needs to be addressed in a way that acknowledges cultural differences and a lack of infrastructure. “The situation in East Timor is very complicated because people have a great deal of reverence for crocodiles, which is a beautiful thing,” he said, “but it leads to a lot of people being killed, maimed, and injured, suffering enormous pain, so finding a solution to this will be complex.”