Climate change and China will define US relations with Pacific Islands under Donald Trump, security experts say

Shortly after Donald Trump won the election in November, the leader of one of the world's smallest countries expressed a desire to take him snorkeling. Surangel Whipps Jr., the president of Palau, a Pacific island nation of 18,000 people, told New Zealand public broadcaster RNZ that he hoped Mr. Trump could see firsthand the bleaching of coral reefs caused by climate change.

"It would be a great opportunity to take him snorkeling and see the impacts firsthand," Whipps said, adding, "to see the islands that are disappearing because of sea level rise and the taro patches that are being invaded." Pacific island leaders have been congratulating Mr. Trump and expressing hopes for stronger ties with the United States.

However, Pacific political scientist Tarcisius Kabutaulaka said there was a mix of "hope and concern" in the region about Trump's return to power. The United States has been rebuilding its relationships with the region for years in an effort to compete with China for influence, including reopening diplomatic missions, inviting Pacific leaders to the White House, and pledging financial support.

Observers believe that Trump's more unpredictable and transactional approach to foreign policy will change how the US interacts with the region. They also note that the biggest point of divergence between a Trump administration and the Pacific region will be over climate change. While Pacific island nations have been at the forefront of international efforts to reduce carbon emissions, one of Trump's first actions as president this week was to sign an order beginning the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.

This move has already drawn criticism from some leaders in the region, with former New Zealand MP and respected Samoan commentator, Opeti William Sio, predicting that China would fill the void and become the "global multilateral leadership force" in the Pacific. He also criticized Trump’s decision to withdraw from the World Health Organization. “When you hear Trump’s argument about global freeloading, what he fails to understand is that multilateral organizations are about sharing the burden,” Sio said. “The US has been a huge beneficiary of partnership and collaboration with the WHO and the World Organization on climate change.” He added, “What they are doing now is shooting themselves in the foot.”

Experts say a Trump administration will also encounter a Pacific region that has changed since he left office in 2021. "Very quickly, he's going to find a region where China is more deeply engaged than it was last time, and where there's quite a bit of cynicism about the engagement of the US," said Anna Powles, an associate professor at Massey University and a Pacific security expert.

Trump has already signaled major shifts in US foreign policy, from controlling Greenland and reclaiming the Panama Canal, to ending the war in Ukraine. He has long been skeptical of traditional US partnerships and has ridiculed European members of NATO for their defense spending. While Trump has rarely talked about the Pacific region recently, experts say he is unlikely to disengage from it.

Some argue that he showed an understanding of the region's importance to the US during his first term, when the National Security Council established its first director for Oceania and Indo-Pacific security, and Trump also met with the leaders of the Marshall Islands, Palau, and the Federated States of Micronesia at the White House. "The US will continue to see the Pacific Islands as geostrategically important, and so maintaining a military presence in the region will continue to be important," Dr. Kabutaulaka said.

Nonetheless, experts say that Trump will bring different priorities when dealing with the region. "That focus, and the nature and tone of that engagement, is likely to be very different from what we have experienced under the Biden administration, and even under the previous Trump administration," Dr. Powles said. She added that while Joe Biden placed climate change at the heart of the US relationship with the Pacific region, Trump will view the region through a different lens. "What's very clear is that the Trump administration will see the Pacific region as central to competition with China," Dr. Powles said. "Security will be the priority for the Trump administration's engagement with the Pacific."

Dr. Powles said this could include the US seeking more security agreements in the region, such as the one recently signed with Papua New Guinea by the Biden administration. Under Biden, the US reopened embassies in the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, and Tonga, continuing to increase dialogue, including two White House summits with Pacific leaders, and pledging $810 million (A$1.29 billion) in funding to the region. The Biden administration also renewed agreements with the Marshall Islands, Palau, and the Federated States of Micronesia, allowing US forces access to their territories in exchange for $7 billion in financial support and other benefits over 20 years.

Experts say that upon returning to office, Trump is likely to make more demands of these three Micronesian nations in the coming years. "Given Trump's focus on security, we may see increased pressure on these countries to deepen their role as part of a broader security umbrella," Dr. Powles said. Trump's pick for defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, recently mentioned the US territory of Guam, which is receiving more US Marines, when asked at his confirmation hearing about the country's most important strategic bases in the Pacific.

A report on US engagement in the Pacific by the Heritage Foundation, a think tank with close ties to the Republican Party, may provide clues to a second Trump administration's approach to the region. The report said that the Pacific region was "worthy of greater US engagement" due to its "critical position" in countering China. It also stated that "the current era of great power competition between the US and China requires elevating the Pacific Islands to a higher level of importance when considering resource allocation." "Americans should primarily concern themselves with US engagement with the Pacific Islands because the US needs free and open access to transit in the Western Pacific. It may one day need to move forces, assets, and resources through the Pacific—particularly the Micronesian subregion—to areas of conflict in Asia to defend US allies, interests, and citizens abroad."

In the four years since Trump was last in office, the Pacific region has been balancing the interests of the US and China as they vie for influence. "Pacific Island nations are looking at things and saying, well, let's do things that are in our interests. In other words, we deal with everyone. We deal with China, Australia, and the US, and see which one delivers the best result," said Steven Ratuva, a professor at the University of Canterbury and a security expert. Pacific island leaders have also made it clear that climate change, not US-China competition, is their priority.

“Geopolitical maneuvering is meaningless to Pacific people who are facing the threat of cyclones and focused on building resilience, peace, and prosperity for our families, communities, nations, and region,” said Baron Waqa, the Secretary-General of the Pacific Islands Forum last year. Observers say there is growing skepticism about the US in the Pacific region after a major funding commitment by the Biden administration stalled in the US Congress. Professor Ratuva expects that funding will not be forthcoming under a Trump administration, and said that would damage the US position in the region. Meanwhile, China has recently re-emerged as the second-largest bilateral donor in the Pacific. “The US’s credibility in the eyes of the Pacific is going down at a time when it is trying to mobilize them to support them against China,” he said. “And of course, China is likely to take advantage of that.”

One of the biggest issues in the region will be how to engage with the US on climate change, given their starkly different views on the issue. While Pacific island nations see climate change as their biggest security threat, he has described it as a "hoax" and a "scam." "It's not clear how he's going to engage with Pacific leaders when he completely dismisses what is a critical security issue for the region," Dr. Powles said.

Leaders such as Palau President Surangel Whipps Jr. are hoping they can convince Trump of the threat of climate change if he attends one of the region's upcoming meetings. While the Heritage Foundation report said that the US under Biden had "overemphasized" climate change as a "vital US interest" in its engagement with the Pacific region, it also said the US must be prepared to engage in climate change talks "to be taken seriously in the region." Dr. Powles said that Pacific island nations may find common ground with a Trump administration on other issues such as economic development and technology, but she doubted Trump would visit the region.

"Again, I think it's really important to (try) to push those areas that might actually pique Trump's interest and seek to improve the situation in the Pacific," she said, adding that it was crucial that the US-Pacific Island Leaders Summit in Washington DC be reinstated as soon as possible, as it did not take place in 2024. "Whether that will happen in 2025 is unknown, but it will be a strong indication of how much Trump sees these relationships as important."