Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev destined for contrasting legacies after Italian's near-perfect Australian Open title defence

In the finals of sporting events, victory and defeat often hang by a thread, yet the impact of the result on the careers of the two athletes can be drastically different, which is truly poignant.

Before this year's Australian Open men's singles final, the difference in strength between Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev was not significant. This was the third Grand Slam final for both players, but after Sinner's successful defense, their career trajectories seem destined to diverge significantly.

Sinner is now undoubtedly Italy's best tennis player, and his third Grand Slam title has moved him past Nicola Pietrangeli, who won the French Open in 1959 and 1960. Sinner was nearly flawless in his Australian Open final against Zverev, winning his third major title.

It's hard to imagine that Sinner has become so ruthless in the past 18 months. He remains undefeated in Grand Slam finals, becoming only the eighth player after Jimmy Connors, Bjorn Borg, Stefan Edberg, Gustavo Kuerten, Roger Federer, Stan Wawrinka, and Carlos Alcaraz to win their first three major finals.

In contrast, Zverev is now the seventh player in the Open Era to lose his first three Grand Slam finals. He is the second active player on the men's tour to do so, the other being Casper Ruud. This year's Australian Open was Zverev's 36th Grand Slam event of his career. If he can finally break through and win a title, only Goran Ivanišević would have taken longer to win a major, winning Wimbledon in 2001 in his 48th Grand Slam event. The German is destined to become the "nearly man" of his generation.

There is no doubt that winning a Grand Slam title is incredibly difficult, as can be asked of the thousands of players who have graced the men's and women's tours in the history of tennis. However, what truly separates champions from the historical greats is their ability to win consistently.

Novak Djokovic announced his arrival as one of the best young players in the game when he won his first Grand Slam title at the 2008 Australian Open. However, it wasn't until 2011, when he won three of the four majors, that people started to consider whether Djokovic would break the Federer and Nadal monopoly on men's tennis. Djokovic's insatiable desire for titles is now legendary, and Sinner, by winning this title – his third in five major events – has given himself a chance to surpass his rivals.

Simply looking at the scoreline does not do justice to this men’s singles final. Sinner withstood the challenge of a strong opponent in Zverev and had all the answers. The Italian has had a remarkable 73-6 record in the 2024 season, and it was clear why at all stages of this final. Zverev threw everything at the defending champion, and from a powerful serve to a threatening forehand and backhand, the German can be proud of his performance. He just ran into an otherworldly opponent.

If Sinner continues to mimic Djokovic’s habit of winning consecutive titles at Melbourne Park over the next decade, comparisons to Djokovic will inevitably be made. One of Djokovic’s greatest strengths in his prime was his ability to get to every ball. Opponents felt like they had to hit two or three winners to win a point against the Serb at his peak. Often in tight finals, Djokovic would turn into an impenetrable wall and pull away from his opponent. Sinner has cultivated a similar trait, and it was on full display in this match, as Zverev hit shots that would have left most opponents scrambling, only to be met with a forceful reply from Sinner.

Athletes spend hours poring over every detail before entering a major final. Unfortunately, many times, even the best-laid plans can fail, and improvisation is crucial to winning in the heat of battle when things go wrong. Down 3-4 in the first set, Zverev was distracted, and that was all the opportunity a ruthless champion like Sinner needed. After complaining to chair umpire Damien Dumusois about losing a racket during a changeover, Zverev didn't win another game.

Zverev’s powerful serve often gets him out of trouble. He is one of the best in the world at saving break points, doing so around 70% of the time over the past 12 months. However, if you give a player like Sinner look after look at break opportunities, he will surely capitalize. That’s exactly what the Italian did, breaking Zverev’s serve on his sixth break point opportunity in the first set. Sinner continued his incredible Djokovic-esque performance in the second set, pulling up with a left hamstring tweak at 4-3 down. Like Djokovic, the apparent ailment only seemed to make him more focused.

Zverev tried to remain composed and played well in a tense second set, pushing Sinner into a tiebreak. Both men had perfect tiebreak records heading into the final, but eventually, Sinner prevailed, and Zverev had an emotional outburst, with his racket unfortunately bearing the brunt of his frustration. Zverev has always been a strong five-set player in his career, and he would have been hoping to take this final into a decider after losing the first two sets. But tonight, Sinner was unstoppable.

The deciding set also started tightly, but Zverev – and his spirit – were broken in the sixth game as Sinner took a decisive 4-2 lead. Zverev will look at the final stats of this match and wonder what could have been, as he did not play a bad match. The German hit 25 winners in the three sets, almost the same amount he hit in his quarterfinal against Tommy Paul. Zverev won almost 70% of his first serve points, which is an excellent return. It just so happened that the player on the other side of the net won a staggering 84% on the same points.

That performance would have been enough to beat almost every other player on the tour. Unfortunately for Zverev, after finally defeating the Big Three, he was up against the leader of the next generation tonight.