Analysis: Hamas has been hit hard by Israel, but is not out in Gaza

On January 14th, days before a ceasefire agreement in Gaza took effect, outgoing U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken gave a speech at the Atlantic Council in Washington, D.C. Over the past 15 months, Blinken has played a key role in supporting Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, which human rights organizations have described as a genocide, and which has resulted in the deaths of at least 47,300 Palestinians.

As stated by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s goal was to completely defeat and eliminate Hamas. However, in his final public appearance as Secretary of State on January 14th, Blinken’s tone was different. “We assess that Hamas is recruiting new militants almost as fast as it is losing them,” Blinken said, “which portends an enduring insurgency and an endless war.”

Although analysts and experts have told Al Jazeera that Hamas has undoubtedly suffered heavy losses over the past 15 months, it has likely lost thousands of fighters, including its military leader Yahya Sinwar, and its weapons stockpiles have been depleted, according to the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). But as the dust settles in Gaza, it is clear that Hamas has not been eradicated and maintains a presence in the Gaza Strip. Hamas fighters were notably involved in the transfer of Israeli captives during the ceasefire agreement with Israel. Members of the Hamas-run civil administration have also resumed their work. If any authority exists in Gaza, it still appears to be Hamas.

Hugh Lovatt of the European Council on Foreign Relations told Al Jazeera, “Hamas is deliberately cultivating a carefully orchestrated image of strength, and we should see it as a propaganda tool.” Lovatt added that, however, after “more than a year of fighting, Hamas fighters still have a firm grip on Gaza.” “Hamas is trying to show Israel that it has failed to destroy Hamas, and that the group will have a veto over the future of Gaza, because neither Israel, the Palestinian Authority, nor the international community can impose a post-conflict governance or security arrangement,” Lovatt said.

The scenes during the captive releases caught many people off guard, including Palestinians in Gaza. “I was very surprised to see the number of fighters from the Qassam Brigades (the military wing of Hamas) during the release of the Israeli captives,” said 67-year-old Fathi Radawi, a father of eight who was displaced from Rafah to Nuseirat in central Gaza. “The scale of the attacks and bombings, especially in northern Gaza, led us to believe that Hamas’s human and military resources had been greatly reduced. But what we saw proves that they are still strong – perhaps even stronger than before.” Omar Rahman, a researcher at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, told Al Jazeera: “(Hamas) was able to hold on to its hostages, they appear to be in good condition, and it was able to negotiate and sign a ceasefire agreement with the parties that vowed to eliminate it.”

According to Blinken, Hamas has also been able to recruit enough fighters to replace those lost in the war. The actual number of Hamas fighters killed during the war is difficult to determine. According to a report by the European Council on Foreign Relations, Hamas claimed to have lost 6,000 to 7,000 members of its armed and civilian wings, based on interviews with two senior Hamas members. But the report said that most of Hamas’s estimated 25,000 fighters are likely still alive and in hiding. Netanyahu claimed that 20,000 “terrorists” had been killed as of November 2024, while Israeli military chief of staff Herzi Halevi said that approximately 3,000 were killed between October 6, 2024 and the ceasefire. The UN Human Rights Office said that nearly 70 percent of the verified deaths during this period were women and children.

“Only Hamas knows how many members of its military wing, the Qassam Brigades, have been killed,” Hamza Atar, a Palestinian military analyst from Gaza, told Al Jazeera. “We see some posts mourning loved ones, with language indicating they were fighting, but Hamas has not announced anything.”

Among the few acknowledged losses are some Hamas leaders. On January 19, the first day of the ceasefire, Hamas spokesman Abu Obeida gave what he claimed was a “victory speech.” He paid tribute to some of Hamas’s fallen members, including Sinwar (whose death was recorded by Israeli drones in October), the leader of the political group, Ismail Haniyeh (killed in Tehran in late July), and Saleh al-Arouri (killed in Lebanon in January 2024). Atar noted that Abu Obeida did not mention the name of Mohammed Deif, the elusive figure who is one of the founders of the Qassam Brigades. Israel claimed to have killed Deif in late July, but Hamas has never officially acknowledged his death.

Among those still alive are reportedly Mohammed Sinwar, the de facto head of Hamas in Gaza, whom Israel considers to be tougher, more trained, and more level-headed than his late brother Yahya, and Ezzidin Haddad, who is in charge of the Qassam Brigades in northern Gaza. Israel’s stated goals also included destroying Hamas’s infrastructure, particularly its vast network of tunnels. However, according to Israeli media reports, Hamas’s tunnel network is still largely operational, although estimates of how much of it remains intact vary widely. Hamas members told the European Council on Foreign Relations that many of the tunnels have been repaired or preserved, and in some cases even expanded. Hamas’s rocket arsenal has likely been greatly depleted by Israel. However, simple and rudimentary rockets can be rebuilt using unexploded ordnance left around Gaza.

The European Council on Foreign Relations report stated that Hamas is recycling “unexploded Israeli rockets, bombs, and shells, using them for improvised explosive devices and to produce new projectiles.” Hamas’s adaptability as a fighting force, developed over years of responding to Israeli tactics against it, means that it has built itself to withstand multiple blows and still be able to continue as an organization.

Hamas is not only a military organization, but it has also been managing the government of Gaza since winning the elections in 2006 by defeating Fatah. Although Hamas's popularity has increased in the West Bank, especially after the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, some in Gaza have expressed different views about the group. Nevertheless, as opinion polls by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research have shown, Hamas's popularity in Gaza has not been greatly affected by the Israeli war on Gaza. Palestinians in Gaza have widely varying views about the group. According to the latest opinion poll in September 2024, Hamas’s support in Gaza was around 35 percent, a 3-percentage-point drop from June 2024.

Some critics have slammed Hamas for failing to foresee Israel’s lengthy and brutal response to the attack. Others claim that Hamas dragged them into a war that the people of Gaza did not want to be involved in, and almost all have lost family, friends, and homes. One of those critics is Wael Darwish, a 45-year-old man from northern Nuseirat. “It’s a catastrophe, not a victory,” he said. “We suffered the greatest catastrophe in history. If there is any small victory, it is because of the resilience of the people, not Hamas.” “While I do not deny the sacrifices of the resistance, we are tired,” Darwish said. “The resistance must also think about its people. We have shed enough blood.” “If Hamas continues to rule, I will leave Gaza immediately,” he continued. “Many people feel the same way.”

Even before October 7, Hamas faced domestic opposition, including protests against the group’s policies. However, some Palestinians in Gaza say that the past 15 months have changed their views of the group. “I was happy to see the people, their numbers, and the safety of the Hamas fighters,” said Fatima Shamali, 64, a mother of 11. “While I do not usually support Hamas, during the war, my support for them increased because they managed to confront, even if only slightly, Israel’s military arsenal.” Nihal Barakat, 43, a mother of eight who was displaced from the Shati refugee camp to Nuseirat, agreed. “I expect Hamas to have increased popularity after this war,” she said. “As for its strength, it remains intact, and we hope that it will serve the interests of the people.”

“It is clear that many Gazans are frustrated and angry with [Hamas],” Lovatt said. People are angry that Hamas did not consider the consequences of its October 7 attack, nor did it plan for “the inevitable and disproportionate violent response against Gaza,” Lovatt added. Criticism of the group “is also felt within Hamas,” particularly among the group’s moderates, Lovatt said. According to his interviews for the European Council on Foreign Relations report, there is a lot of criticism of “the actions of (the late Hamas leader) Yahya Sinwar and others who made some unilateral decisions.” But experts say that even disapproval should not be seen as an endorsement of Israeli tactics or its occupation of Palestine.

“People did not cooperate with [Israel] during the genocidal war on Gaza because they are the enemy and the occupier,” military analyst Atar said. “It has nothing to do with Hamas. It’s about identity, resilience, and the continuity of the Palestinian people. It’s not because they love Hamas, but because they love Palestine.” Radawi, the displaced father of eight, said, “The occupation of our land must end. The world needs to stand with us and decide our fate.” “Spare us more wars; we are exhausted. We should not be punished just because we have among us members of Hamas, Fatah, (Palestinian Islamic) Jihad, or any other faction.”