Man City avoid Champions League combustion as Real or Bayern await

Manchester City's Champions League campaign could have mirrored the fate of the merchandise stand outside Etihad Stadium, which caught fire before kickoff. However, a resilient performance on the pitch allowed them to narrowly secure a spot in the play-offs. Even City manager Pep Guardiola acknowledged the ominous signs, remarking, "When I saw the fire before the game, I thought 'the journalists already have their headlines.'" Fortunately, the pre-match incident caused no injuries, and City managed to navigate a tense and nerve-wracking night, displaying the fragility that has defined their season.

Their next challenge is against either Real Madrid or Bayern Munich, a prospect that might unsettle even the most devoted City supporter. City's 22nd-place finish in the new Champions League opening phase after their 3-1 victory over Club Brugge on Wednesday is a disappointing result for a club with such high ambitions, having won the tournament in 2023. For a brief period, it seemed as though things would be much worse, as Guardiola's team faced the potential humiliation of not even reaching the play-offs.

Apart from a lively corner occupied by Brugge supporters, the stadium was eerily silent when Raphael Onyedika's low shot right before halftime left City needing two goals to secure the necessary victory. At the start of the campaign, a play-off spot would have been considered an unlikely consolation prize. As even that began to slip away, the sense of crisis surrounding this season intensified. City showed vulnerability in defense, particularly out wide, and lacked sharpness in attack. This marked only the second time a team managed by Guardiola failed to register a shot on target in the first half, the first being against Borussia Dortmund in September 2022.

The home fans inside the stadium were subdued, as City had given them little to alleviate their growing anxieties. Guardiola was visibly agitated in his technical area, frequently clutching his head in despair as City were caught on the break. He even kicked a drinks box in frustration, though he later laughed it off, recalling his successful playing career at Barcelona. In a broader context, City's season was on the line, their European ambitions jeopardized while trailing Premier League leaders Liverpool by 12 points, their hold on the title weakened.

To their credit, City responded, aided by Guardiola's strategic substitution of Savinho for Ilkay Gundogan at halftime. This change helped the manager avoid the unprecedented outcome of failing to reach the knockout stage for the first time in his illustrious career. Had City been eliminated, it would have ended their 11-season streak of reaching the knockout stage, a significant blow to the pride and reputation of a club that values its place among Europe's elite. City avoided what would have been their most significant embarrassment under Guardiola, but their current form suggests that a play-off against Real or Bayern for a place in the last 16 is not something to approach with confidence.

It was only when the unfortunate Joel Ordonez deflected Josko Gvardiol's cross into his own net, giving City the lead, that Brugge's threat was finally neutralized. Brugge's supporters also celebrated at the final whistle as they narrowly secured a play-off spot in 24th place. While the home side ultimately succeeded, their campaign has so far given no reason for concern to either Real Madrid's experienced manager Carlo Ancelotti or City legend Vincent Kompany, now Bayern's coach.

"We deserve it," said Guardiola regarding City's play-off situation. "I don't know if they are happy to play against us, but it is what it is. No complaints. We're going to face them – one is the king of the competition, the other is the second or third." City's defeats against Juventus, Sporting, and Paris St-Germain, along with their collapse against Feyenoord, where they drew after leading 3-0 with 16 minutes remaining, will provide their next opponents with all the motivation they need. And even if they overcome these formidable challenges, City will then face either Diego Simeone's resilient Atletico Madrid or Xabi Alonso's Bayer Leverkusen in the last 16.

Easier? Not by much. Even in their victory, City were frequently vulnerable on the counter-attack, with too many gaps in midfield for Club Brugge to exploit. However, they dug deep when it mattered and managed to claw their way out of the precarious position they were in. City will need to show a significant improvement in the short time between this victory and the play-offs if they are to avoid elimination at that stage. This was unthinkable at the start of the season given their pedigree, but it has become a very real possibility in recent weeks, especially after their 4-2 defeat in Paris.

Guardiola, both relieved and pleased, hopes that City will soon be in a stronger position, able to call upon new forward Omar Marmoush, among others. History is full of teams that turned early struggles into Champions League triumphs. John Stones made a welcome return, and Guardiola hopes that others such as Ruben Dias and Nathan Ake, along with Oscar Bobb, could also return, while Kevin de Bruyne can accumulate more minutes and fitness. Guardiola can also draw on the memories of defeating Bayern and Real on their way to the Champions League final victory against Inter Milan in Istanbul in 2023.

"It might seem impossible today, but tomorrow the mindset, the vibes will change," Guardiola said. "We will try against Real or Bayern. We will create problems. These players have something special. We will try to do it." His words almost sounded like those of an underdog, a role rarely associated with Manchester City in recent years. This is their current position in the tournament, but when a team of proven quality has a fighting chance, they can defy the odds. However, City will need to elevate their game significantly if they want this painful, tortuous Champions League journey to continue into the last 16.