Syria’s Baath party dissolved: What happens next?

The former ruling Ba'ath Party in Syria no longer exists. The party ruled Syria for decades until it was overthrown on December 8th, when former President Bashar al-Assad also stepped down as opposition forces entered Damascus. The dissolution of the party, announced on Wednesday, is merely a formal confirmation of this process.

But it wasn't just the Ba'ath Party that was dissolved by the authorities; all armed factions were also officially disbanded, with plans to integrate former opposition forces into the new government structure. Among the dissolved organizations is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by Ahmed Shara, who was the de facto ruler of Syria. Shara was appointed as the interim president of the country on Wednesday, with no specific term limit.

This move was not unexpected, as members of the Syrian transitional government had been hinting for weeks that HTS and other organizations would be dissolved. However, the dissolution of the Syrian Ba'ath Party, after more than five decades of authoritarian rule, carries strong symbolic weight.

Ahmed Shara, the de facto leader of Syria, was formally appointed as president for the transitional period, and the country's 2012 constitution was suspended. The various armed factions that had stormed Damascus and overthrew the old regime were dissolved with the aim of absorbing them into official state institutions.

“All military factions have been dissolved...and integrated into state institutions,” said Hassan Abdul-Ghani, a spokesman for the new government. He also announced the “dissolution of the defunct regime’s army” and its notorious security apparatus, as well as the long-ruling Ba'ath Party.

The Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party, as it is fully known, was founded in 1947 by two Syrians, Michel Aflaq and Salah al-Din al-Bitar, as a pan-Arab nationalist and socialist party. The Syrian branch was a component of this pan-Arab regional party, but it later evolved into a Syria-centric military dictatorship. The Iraqi branch, under Saddam Hussein, also became a military dictatorship.

In Syria, Ba'athists came to power in a coup in 1963, the same year the party also seized power in Iraq. Three years later, in 1966, a faction of the party led by Salah Jadid and Hafez al-Assad (then a Ba'athist general and father of the recently overthrown President Bashar al-Assad) staged an internal coup, ousting Aflaq and Bitar.

The elder Assad staged another coup in 1970, taking complete control of the party, which he led until his death in 2000. His son, Bashar, then took the reins, leading the party until December 8, 2024, when he fled to Moscow in the early hours of the morning after the Syrian opposition made rapid advances in the country.

The dissolution of the Ba'ath Party is widely seen as a necessary step for Syria. Radwan Ziadeh, a senior analyst at the Arab Center Washington, said the announcements marked a “transition of power to civilians.” The party was so closely associated with the old regime that it had no future in post-revolution Syria. It was also seen as the core ideological pillar of a ruling authority that was intolerant of dissent, imprisoning and killing hundreds of thousands of opponents. Indeed, after Assad fled to Moscow on the morning of December 8th, Syrians attacked Ba'ath Party offices and trampled on the party flag.

“They have no future, given their blood-soaked record,” said Ilya Ayub, author and researcher for the newsletter Ghost Studies.

After the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings morphed into civil war, the forces opposing Assad splintered into many factions. The Nusra Front, an offshoot of al-Qaeda, eventually broke from that group to become Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). It established its authority in northeastern Syria and implemented its conservative rule from its base in Idlib.

In late 2024, it led the campaign to retake major Syrian cities – Aleppo, Hama, Homs, and Damascus – from the Assad regime. After the regime collapsed, Shara, as the de facto ruler of Syria, met with foreign envoys and dignitaries. Under Shara, HTS has become the de facto ruling party of Syria and has established an interim government largely composed of officials from its local administration in Idlib.

Nonetheless, the group has long expressed its intention to dissolve itself in order to form a new government. The medium-to-long term goal of the new government is to establish a state with its own institutions. The stated plan is to merge HTS and other rebel factions into a proper security sector, which will comprise an army, general security and border control, and police forces.

There is no clear timeline yet. Shara has previously pledged to oversee Syria's political transition, including a national dialogue with different stakeholders, the formation of an inclusive government, and eventually, elections. However, he has indicated that it could take up to four years before elections can be held.

Shara will establish an interim legislative council to oversee the country’s transitional phase until a new constitution is adopted. The members of the new council have not yet been announced. Impatience is rising among some Syrians. One of the criticisms of the new government from Syrian civil society is its failure to communicate or meet with the families of the thousands of people who have disappeared in the country under the Assad regime.

“There’s still no real plan, and so far, they don’t seem to intend to do any serious accountability for Assad and the regime’s crimes,” said Ayub. “The lack of accountability, the inaction, or in some cases, the obstruction of finding evidence, such as mass graves, is concerning because thousands, if not more, of people will be left in the dark about the fate of their loved ones.”

Reactions have been mixed. While many Syrians and observers expected HTS and the Ba'ath Party to be dissolved, there are concerns about representation and the establishment of a clear timeline for the emergence of a new state. The crowd present at Wednesday’s announcement was overwhelmingly military personnel. While Shara’s being granted the title of president for the transitional period was not unexpected, some commentators have still criticized the lack of transparency or any democratic process.

Furthermore, questions remain about how Shara and the interim government will unite the disparate armed factions now that Assad is no longer a common enemy. Major factions that have not agreed to join Shara's new project include the US-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), who have been fighting Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) forces in northern Syria.

Nonetheless, analysts say there is still some room for optimism, given the difficult 14 years that Syria has endured since the Arab Spring in 2011. “The emphasis that this is a transitional period, that it’s temporary, that Shara is a transitional president, overall, in the context of Syria, that’s more positive than negative,” said Ayub.