Donald Trump's foreign aid freeeze leaves organisations in the Asia-Pacific region scrambling

Peter Bosip's office in downtown Port Moresby is modest and unassuming, a stark contrast to the White House, 15,000 kilometers away. Yet, a significant move by a black pen wielded by US President Donald Trump has severely impacted Bosip's work as a "barefoot lawyer."

Meanwhile, the lives of thousands of residents in remote provinces of Papua New Guinea have also been affected. "We are very concerned," Bosip told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC). "Our organization itself will not have much of a problem, but the people who live in rural communities and receive our services will be affected."

Bosip's work, though seemingly small, is life-changing for many Papua New Guineans. His team of "barefoot lawyers" works with rural communities across the country, educating them about their legal rights when large mining or logging companies arrive. The organization receives a small amount of funding from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), which is now frozen due to President Trump's executive order to suspend all US foreign aid for 90 days to assess whether it aligns with the "America First" policy.

Two of Bosip's ongoing projects have now been put on hold. And, he is not alone. Aid projects throughout the region, from East Timor to Tonga, have been stalled. Industry insiders say the "Trump effect" is beginning to have a real impact on the ground. Josie Pagani, CEO of the New Zealand community development charity ChildFund, said, "Everyone is scrambling to figure out what this means. We don't know the full impact, and it feels like a tsunami. Every day you think, 'Oh my gosh, is this going to be affected? What about that?'"

Confusion reigns throughout the region as to how this temporary freeze will affect projects. At the same time, there are widespread concerns about whether affected aid projects will comply with the "America First" policy once the 90-day period is over. Organizations that receive USAID funding have been told not to speak to the media, and most organizations contacted by the ABC declined to comment, fearing reprisals. In a press release outlining the plan, the US State Department said President Trump was "no longer blindly throwing money around without a return for the American people."

US Secretary of State Mark Rubio subsequently outlined the broad criteria that agencies and organizations receiving USAID funding must demonstrate in order to continue receiving funding, which will be assessed over the next three months. "Every dollar we spend, every program we fund, and every policy we pursue must be justified by the answer to three simple questions," he said. "Does it make America safer? Does it make America stronger? Does it make America more prosperous?"

Pagani's ChildFund also receives USAID funding. But she says these are "the wrong questions." "Yes, the aid sector needs to be accountable," she said. "Any government, whether it's the Trump administration or the Australian government, has the right to ask: is our aid helping the people we claim to be helping? But aid is not about making America rich, or making New Zealand rich, or making Australia rich."

According to the Lowy Institute, the United States has spent about $3 billion in the Pacific region over the past decade, about 7% of all development financing. Australia is by far the largest donor, contributing about 38% of aid since 2008. The majority of USAID's budget in the Pacific region, about 80%, is used to provide economic assistance to countries that have a Compact of Free Association with the US, such as the Federated States of Micronesia and Palau. Of the remaining 20%, half goes to Papua New Guinea.

Paul Barker, executive director of the Papua New Guinea National Research Institute, told the ABC, "US-funded programs in Papua New Guinea have been quite modest in the past, but have increased in the late 2010s." Ironically, Barker's own organization also receives USAID funding. "I was at a conference in Japan late last year, where staff from the US embassy assured attendees from Southeast Asia and the Pacific that 'the US is a long-term and reliable partner.'"

"But obviously we are living in uncertain times, and there is a degree of uncertainty [with Trump's decision]. Now is the beginning of the year, the time for planning and rolling out projects, and obviously if you have a US-funded project, [you] would be looking at delaying, canceling, or looking for other donors, including ourselves."

For example, in the Solomon Islands, USAID has contributed more than $10 million to clear unexploded ordnance in areas near the capital Honiara, including funding the Halo Trust to survey new land where unknown bombs may exist. The ABC contacted organizations involved in unexploded ordnance clearance to ask if their operations would continue, but the organization did not respond.

Some experts predict that the USAID freeze will create opportunities for China to increase its aid in the region, especially after the US withdrew from the World Health Organization and the Paris Agreement. Others suggest that Australia is likely to "step up." Cameron Hill of the Development Policy Center at the Australian National University told the ABC that the US may place more emphasis on private sector development. "This is challenging in the Pacific, for example, due to limitations in economic structures," he said. "Perhaps we'll see more USAID funding channeled through faith-based organizations and churches. And there may be more emphasis on aid that is directly linked to US geopolitical objectives, such as cyber security and maritime security."

Locally, the confusion remains. In East Timor, the Human Rights and Justice Ombudsman, Virgilio da Silva Guterres, had an agreement with USAID to fund an anti-corruption, integrity, and accountability project. He said they don't know what will happen. "We just don't know," he said. "But from the news around the world, if this policy is the established policy, it will affect our plans."

For Peter Bosip, the situation is simple. "This action withdraws trust," he said. "In the rural communities of Papua New Guinea where we work, [trust] is very important, and this will have a significant impact."