Fears UK pubs could run out of Guinness

At the Ship Haven Bay pub, tucked behind Camden High Street in London, Guinness accounts for more than 50% of all draught beer sales. Pub owner Pat Logue told CNN that Guinness sales this year are already double what they were two years ago.

The Irish stout, known for its distinctive warm brown hue, creamy head, and unique pouring method (a proper Guinness requires 119.5 seconds to pour), has long been considered a go-to drink for rugby fans and pub men.

However, in the past two years, Guinness's popularity has surged, particularly among younger people and women. According to data from food and beverage business data analytics company CGA, beer sales in the UK fell by 0.5% between July and October. But during the same period, sales of beers owned by Diageo, the brand behind Guinness, rose by 23.2%. Within that, draught Guinness sales increased by 20.9%.

According to data shared with CNN by Nielsen, Guinness has become the top-selling beer in the UK for 2024, as of the end of October. Social media influencers and marketing campaigns have helped dispel the notion that Guinness is an older man’s drink. Logue believes that influencers on TikTok have made the beer trendy by showcasing different pubs around London in video reviews, ranking and comparing the best poured pints.

Among the viral trends fueling the iconic stout's popularity is a “split G” challenge, where participants attempt to lower the pint on the first pull so that the “Guinness” logo is split at the point where the head meets the body of the beer. Logue says it’s not unusual to see a group of six young people – three boys and three girls – walk into the Ship Haven Bay pub and order a round of Guinness, which he says would have been unheard of a few years ago.

“It used to be portrayed as an older person’s drink, but now it’s for everyone,” Logue said. “Now it’s a cool drink.” Due to the sudden increase in demand, Diageo has informed some pub owners that they will be placing quotas on Guinness to ensure supply lasts through the holidays. A Diageo spokesperson said in a statement: “We have seen exceptionally strong demand for Guinness from consumers in Great Britain over the past month.”

“We have maximized our supply and are working very closely with our customers to manage allocation to the trade as effectively as possible.” The quota restrictions have not affected all pubs. But pub owners have told CNN they are worried if there will be enough supply to meet demand, particularly during the holidays, which are typically the busiest time of the year and critical for weekly profits.

Logue, who goes through 40 to 50 kegs of Guinness a week, ordered 60 on Friday. He said he was nervous until the delivery arrived, and he was relieved he had enough stock to last the week. Verushca Shetty, an equity analyst at Morningstar, noted that while growth has slowed for distillers and brewers over the past year, Diageo’s Guinness has bucked the trend.

In March, Diageo launched a popular marketing campaign featuring actor Jason Momoa, which Shetty says has helped the brand’s growth. “The brand (is) seeing an uptick in popularity, particularly among women and Gen Z,” she said. In Diageo’s fiscal year-end earnings call in July, CEO Debra Crew said Guinness's global net sales were up 15% in fiscal year 2024.

Crew said Diageo has “brought more Guinness consumers into the brand” by partnering with Momoa on the marketing campaign and with influencers to “co-create content and shape the brand.” According to Crew, in the UK, consumption of Guinness by women grew by 27% from fiscal year 2022 to 2023. In addition to working with content creators, Diageo’s Crew said the company expects its commercial partnerships with sports events like the English Premier League and the Six Nations rugby tournament to continue to drive demand.

The Auld Shillelagh pub in London’s Stoke Newington neighborhood has been a “home of Guinness” since 1991, with kegs of the Irish stout arriving two to three times a week. Angus Leyton, co-owner of the pub with his brother, told CNN that while they have always been known for Guinness, he has noticed an increase in the beer’s popularity in recent years. “Guinness has always been a big seller for us. But yes, I would say in the last few years it has gone up,” he said. The Irish stout now accounts for 70% of the pub’s sales.

Leyton, who is from Roscommon, Ireland, says there is a noticeable increase in the number of young people drinking Guinness compared to 10 years ago. “Our customers are mostly in their early 20s to early 30s and the majority of them are Guinness drinkers,” Leyton said. “The gender split is pretty even.” Harry Evans, 26, told CNN while drinking at a pub in London’s Shoreditch neighborhood that he enjoys Guinness because it is smooth, easy to drink and “doesn’t give you the same gassiness as other beers.” “I drink it all year round,” he said.

Leyton said that in his 37 years in the business, he has never experienced any difficulties with the supply of Guinness. This explains why some pub owners are concerned about potential quota restrictions. Leyton has not received any notice of quota restrictions, but he said they are always nervous about receiving deliveries. While Diageo has said demand in the UK is “exceptionally strong,” the stout has also grown in popularity in the United States. According to Nielsen data, Guinness was the top imported beer in the US for the 12 months ending in October.

In Europe, according to Diageo, Guinness 0.0, a non-alcoholic version of the stout, doubled its net sales in fiscal year 2024. At the Dead Rabbit bar in Manhattan, co-founder and managing partner Jack McGarry said he has sold as much Guinness in the first 10 months of 2024 as he did in the entire year of 2023. McGarry, who is from Belfast, Northern Ireland, said he thinks Irish culture is becoming popular in the public eye, which bodes well for Guinness.

Additionally, he said he thinks younger people are becoming more aware that Guinness is a light, low-calorie beer. A 20-ounce pint of Guinness has about 210 calories, comparable to a 20-ounce pint of Peroni (about 224 calories). And Guinness has an alcohol content of just 4.2%, similar to light beers like Michelob Ultra. “All of our bars are doing more volume than last year,” McGarry said. The Dead Rabbit bar also has a location in Austin, Texas.

Victor Boyd, the owner of Iona, a pub in Williamsburg, Brooklyn, is from Dublin. He said his bar has been serving Guinness for 25 years and he has also noticed a recent surge in popularity. According to Boyd, it's not just young people. He said social media reviews about the best poured Guinness in New York have helped raise his pub’s profile among many. “Other people are finding the joy in stout, which is lower in alcohol and calories than a lot of other beers,” Boyd said.