As Sudan’s RSF surrounds Darfur’s el-Fasher, ethnic killings feared

According to analysts, local observers, and sources within the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the Sudanese army could lose its last major city under its control in the western Darfur region within days. Observers fear this could lead to the RSF committing crimes against humanity and trigger a humanitarian catastrophe in El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur state.

Ali Musabel, an advisor to the RSF, told Al Jazeera that "the RSF will liberate El Fasher in about 10 days." According to the Yale University Humanitarian Research Lab, the RSF has been launching drones, shelling, and encircling El Fasher from the east and west since January 21. The lab relies on satellite imagery analysis. Al Jazeera spoke to four sources in North Darfur who confirmed these findings.

Nathaniel Raymond, executive director of the Humanitarian Research Lab, stated, "The RSF always attacks from the east (to distract the enemy) but then completes the annihilation from the west." In April 2023, a power struggle between the RSF and the army erupted into civil war. Credible reports indicate that the RSF engaged in mass killings and systematic rapes before November 2023 to seize control of South Darfur, East Darfur, Central Darfur, and West Darfur. Human rights organizations have accused both sides of committing atrocities.

The RSF encircled El Fasher after several previously anti-government armed movements, known as the Joint Forces, sided with the army in April to protect the city from a potential RSF attack. Raymond said that while the RSF had a military advantage over the Joint Forces, it failed to seize El Fasher because the rainy season, which lasts until October, flooded roads and prevented RSF vehicles from reaching there. Analysts and local observers say that with the RSF bogged down in central and eastern Sudan as the army tries to regain lost territory, they are now focusing on capturing El Fasher and consolidating control over Darfur to make up for losses elsewhere.

On January 25, the group killed at least 80 people in an attack on the village of Borosh, about 170km (105 miles) east of El Fasher, according to local news source Darfur 24. Al Jazeera’s verification unit, Sanad, verified a video uploaded by RSF fighters in which they are counting the dead in Borosh. Each body lies in pools of blood in a ditch and appears to be wearing civilian clothes. Local journalist Zakaria Mohammed said, “Civilians took up arms to try and protect their land. Most civilians in North Darfur have taken up some weapons…to protect themselves from RSF attacks.” Musabel said those killed were legitimate targets because they were carrying weapons. “They mobilized and carried weapons to attack and threaten the RSF,” he said in a voice message. “They stole two of our cars, so we responded by killing those armed people.”

Al Jazeera reports, human rights groups, and UN experts have documented numerous RSF attacks on defenseless civilians. They often carry out summary executions and drive entire communities off their land. Fearing similar atrocities, communities across Sudan have taken up arms to try and protect themselves from RSF attacks. Human rights organizations and analysts say that civilians in the Zamzam displacement camp are especially at risk if El Fasher falls. The camp is about 15km (9.3 miles) south of the city center and had a pre-war population of about 300,000. The current war has caused massive displacement, swelling the population to more than 500,000, many of whom are from “non-Arab” settled agricultural tribes.

They have fled what many experts describe as genocidal violence perpetrated by state-backed “Arab” nomadic tribal militias, which began in 2003. At that time, the central government outsourced a brutal crackdown to these Arab militias to quell a rebellion led mainly by non-Arab groups against the political and economic marginalization of their people. In 2013, then-President Omar al-Bashir rebranded these Arab tribal militias as the RSF, and their fighting capacity has since far surpassed the “non-Arab” armed groups defending El Fasher. They have shelled the Zamzam camp numerous times.

Local journalist Noon Barmaki is taking refuge in Zamzam to escape RSF shelling and drone attacks on El Fasher. She says all roads from Zamzam to North Darfur have been cut off by the RSF, and everyone in the camp believes they will die if El Fasher falls to the RSF. “This war…(mainly) takes the form of a conflict between ‘Arab’ tribes and ‘non-Arab’ tribes,” Barmaki said. “If the RSF occupies and controls El Fasher, then the largest (ethnic) massacre in history will take place,” she warned.

Throughout the war, the RSF has been able to accumulate advanced weapons such as drones, anti-aircraft missiles, and artillery due to unobstructed supply lines from Chad, Libya, and South Sudan. In comparison, the army-backed Joint Forces occasionally receive basic ammunition via army airdrops. UN experts, human rights organizations, and even US lawmakers have accused the United Arab Emirates of supplying the RSF with sophisticated munitions, including Chinese-made Norinco AH4 howitzer artillery. The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs denied supporting any warring party in the conflict in an email to Al Jazeera. “The UAE’s top priority in Sudan remains to address the catastrophic humanitarian crisis. We continue to call for an immediate ceasefire and a peaceful resolution to this man-made conflict. In this regard, the UAE has made it clear that it has not provided any support or materiel to either of the two warring parties in Sudan,” the statement said.

In late 2024, US Senator Chris Van Hollen disclosed a letter from Brett McGurk, then-National Security Council coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa, stating that the US government had received assurances that the UAE “is not now transferring weapons to the RSF and will not do so in the future.” Despite McGurk’s assurances, Van Hollen and US Representative Sara Jacobs said on January 24 that they still accuse the UAE of shipping weapons to the RSF. Raymond agrees, stating that the UAE is playing a decisive role in helping the RSF capture El Fasher, referring to recent accusations of the UAE airlifting weapons to South Darfur. He believes the international community should do more to end the conflict and protect civilians. “The international community is standing by,” Raymond said. “There should be green zones, no-fly zones, and civilian protection forces. These are conversations we should have been having 18 months ago,” he told Al Jazeera.