Jeremy Bowen: Trump's Gaza plan won't happen, but it will have consequences

Donald Trump's proposal for the United States to "take over" and "own" Gaza, while resettling its residents, is doomed to fail. This plan requires the support and cooperation of Arab nations, which have already explicitly rejected the idea. These nations include Jordan and Egypt—the countries Trump hopes will receive Gazan Palestinians—and Saudi Arabia, which would likely need to foot the bill.

Western allies of the United States and Israel also oppose this idea. Even if many Palestinians want the opportunity to leave Gaza, even with a million people leaving, as many as 1.2 million would remain. It can be inferred that the United States—as the new owner of Trump's envisioned "Middle Eastern Riviera"—would have to use force to expel them.

Given the disastrous US intervention in Iraq in 2003, such a move would be deeply unpopular in the United States. It would definitively end any remaining hopes for a two-state solution. The two-state solution aims to end the century-long conflict by establishing an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel. Netanyahu's government is firmly opposed to this idea, and after years of failed peace negotiations, "two peoples, two states" has become an empty slogan. However, it has been a central pillar of US foreign policy since the early 1990s.

Trump's plan would also violate international law. The already fragile US assertions about its belief in a rules-based international order would crumble. Russia's territorial ambitions in Ukraine and China's ambitions in Taiwan would be emboldened. So, if all of this isn't going to happen—at least not in the way Trump announced in Washington, with a visibly delighted Benjamin Netanyahu looking on—why worry about it? The answer is that Trump's words, however outlandish, have consequences.

He is the President of the United States, the most powerful person in the world—no longer a reality TV host or political upstart trying to grab headlines. In the short term, the chaos caused by his stunning statement could undermine the fragile ceasefire agreement in Gaza. A senior Arab source told me that this could be the "death knell" for the ceasefire agreement. The lack of a plan for the future governance of Gaza is already a fault line in the agreement. Now Trump has offered a plan that, even if it doesn't materialize, will touch very sensitive nerves in the hearts of Palestinians and Israelis.

It will nourish the plans and dreams of those extreme nationalist Jewish extremists who believe that all the land between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River, and perhaps even further, is property given by God to the Jewish people. Their leaders are part of Netanyahu's government and sustain his power—and they are delighted by this. They want the Gaza war to restart, with the long-term goal of expelling Palestinians and replacing them with Jews. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said that Trump provided the answer for Gaza's future after the October 7 attacks.

His statement said, "The person who committed the most terrible massacre on our land will lose his land forever. Now, we will take action, with God's help, to finally bury the dangerous idea of a Palestinian state." Israeli centrist opposition leaders were less enthusiastic, perhaps fearing future troubles, but offered a polite welcome to the plan. Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups may feel compelled to respond to Trump in some form of forceful confrontation with Israel.

For Palestinians, the conflict with Israel is driven by a sense of dispossession and memories of what they call "the Catastrophe" (al-Nakba). "The Catastrophe" refers to the mass exodus of Palestinians when Israel won its war of independence in 1948. More than 700,000 Palestinians fled or were driven from their homes by Israeli forces. Almost all were not allowed to return, and Israel passed laws, still in use today, to confiscate their property. Now, there are fears that this will happen again.

Many Palestinians already believe that Israel is using the war against Hamas to destroy Gaza and expel its population. This is part of their accusation that Israel is committing genocide—and now they may believe that Donald Trump is adding weight to Israel's plans. Just because Trump said something doesn't mean it is true or certain. His statement is more like an opening gambit in a real estate negotiation than an expression of established US policy.

Perhaps Trump is sowing some confusion while he is formulating another plan. It is said that he is eager to win the Nobel Peace Prize. Middle East peacemakers, even those who ultimately fail, have a good record of winning the award. As the world was digesting his Gaza statement, he posted on his Truth Social platform his desire for a "verified nuclear peace deal" with Iran.

The Iranian regime denies that it wants nuclear weapons, but there is already an open debate underway in Tehran about whether they are now so threatened that they need a final deterrent. For years, Netanyahu has hoped that the United States, with Israel's help, would destroy Iran's nuclear facilities. Reaching an agreement with Iran was never part of his plan. During Trump's first term, Netanyahu launched a long and successful campaign to persuade him to have the United States withdraw from the nuclear agreement signed by the Obama administration with Iran.

If Trump wanted to throw something to Israeli hardliners to keep them happy while he cozies up to the Iranians, he has succeeded. But he has also created uncertainty and injected more instability into the world's most volatile region.