Jeremy Bowen: Trump's Gaza plan won't happen, but it will have consequences

Donald Trump's plan for the U.S. to "take over" and "own" Gaza, while relocating its residents in the process, is unlikely to materialize. This plan would require the cooperation of Arab nations, but these countries have already made their rejection of the proposal clear.

These opposing nations include Jordan and Egypt—countries Trump hopes would take in Gazan Palestinians—as well as Saudi Arabia, which would likely be expected to shoulder the associated costs. Furthermore, Western allies of the U.S. and Israel also oppose the idea.

Even if many Palestinians might be willing to leave Gaza, if they had the opportunity, even with a million people leaving, there would still be as many as 1.2 million left there. It is conceivable that the U.S.—as the new owner of what Trump calls the "Middle East Riviera"—would have to use force to remove them. Following the U.S.'s disastrous intervention in Iraq in 2003, such an approach would be deeply unpopular domestically.

Trump's plan would also violate international law. This would utterly shatter the U.S.'s already fragile claims about its belief in a rules-based international order. Russia's territorial ambitions in Ukraine and China's ambitions in Taiwan would be further emboldened. The Netanyahu government is vehemently opposed to a "two-state solution," and years of failed peace talks have made "two states for two peoples" an empty slogan, but it has been a cornerstone of U.S. foreign policy since the early 1990s.

Trump's remarks, however outlandish, have consequences. He is the President of the United States, the most powerful person in the world, and no longer a reality TV host or political novice trying to grab attention. In the short term, the confusion caused by his startling statement could undermine the fragile ceasefire agreement in Gaza. A senior Arab source said that this could be the "death knell" for the ceasefire agreement.

The lack of a future governance plan for Gaza is already a fault line in the agreement. Now, Trump has offered a plan that, even if it doesn't materialize, will touch very sensitive nerves in the minds of Palestinians and Israelis. It will nourish the plans and dreams of Jewish extremist nationalists who believe that all the land between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River, and perhaps even further, is property given by God to the Jewish people.

Israel's centrist opposition leaders reacted with relative coolness, likely fearing future troubles, but offered a polite welcome to the plan. Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups may feel compelled to respond to Trump with some form of force against Israel. For Palestinians, the conflict with Israel is driven by a sense of dispossession and memories of what they call "the Catastrophe" (al-Nakba). That was the mass exodus of Palestinians when Israel won its war of independence in 1948.

Trump's statements often seem more like an opening gambit in a real estate negotiation than an expression of established U.S. policy. Perhaps Trump is sowing some confusion while he is also formulating another plan. He is said to be eager to win the Nobel Peace Prize. Middle East peacemakers, even unsuccessful ones, have a good record of winning the award. As the world digested his statement on Gaza, he posted on his Truth Social platform that he wanted to make a "Verified Nuclear Peace Deal" with Iran.

The Iranian regime denies that it wants nuclear weapons, but there has been open debate in Tehran about whether they are now so threatened that they need the ultimate deterrent. For years, Netanyahu has wanted the U.S., with Israel's help, to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities. A deal with Iran was never part of his plan. If Trump wanted to give Israeli hardliners something to make them happy, while also making overtures to the Iranians, then he has succeeded. But he has also created uncertainty and injected more volatility into the most volatile region in the world.