Premier League title race: Liverpool eight points clear of Arsenal - run-in, fixtures, predictions

2025-02-20 01:27:00

Abstract: Liverpool drew 2-2 with Villa, frustrating Slot as they dropped points. Title race tightens; Liverpool leads Arsenal by 8 points (Arsenal has a game in hand).

Liverpool manager Arne Slot expressed disappointment with the team's 2-2 away draw against Aston Villa, believing the team missed out on two valuable points as a result. This draw has also made the Premier League title race more unpredictable, as Liverpool's lead, while still present, is shrinking.

Trent Alexander-Arnold scored the equalizing goal in Wednesday's match, helping Liverpool avoid defeat. Currently, Liverpool leads second-placed Arsenal by eight points. However, Liverpool has played one more game than their North London rivals, giving Arsenal an opportunity to close the gap, especially with Liverpool facing Manchester City away soon, while Arsenal will host West Ham United.

Darwin Nunez missed a golden scoring opportunity in the second half, blasting the ball over the bar from close range with an open goal. However, Aston Villa also had chances to win the game, with Donyell Malen's shot going wide in the final moments. Slot stated that the only reason the team could accept the 2-2 draw was because Villa had a chance to win at the end. He was unhappy with the team being 1-2 down at halftime, believing it did not reflect the first half's play.

With 12 games remaining in the title race for Liverpool, how likely are they to be caught? Which team has the tougher remaining schedule? Despite only securing a draw on Wednesday, Slot's team is on a 22-game unbeaten run in the Premier League, winning 15 of them. This is Liverpool's first such long unbeaten streak since the 44-game run between January 2019 and February 2020, when they ultimately won the Premier League title.

Despite the draw, data analysis company Opta still predicts Liverpool to finish top with 87 points, six points ahead of Arsenal. However, their probability of winning the title has slightly decreased from 87.65% to 84.79%, while Arsenal's probability has increased from 12.35% to 15.13%. Opta believes that the probability of any other team winning the title is no more than 1%.

The recent schedule has been challenging for Liverpool, with a late equalizer conceded in the Merseyside derby against Everton last midweek, a hard-fought 2-1 victory over Wolves at Anfield last Sunday, and then having to come from behind to earn a point against Villa. However, Slot denies that his team's form is declining. He added that playing away against Villa is always a difficult game, and the team's performance today did not indicate a slump.

Slot emphasized that the team shouldn't always fail to get what they deserve. If you compare the chances of both sides together, it is obvious which team should have won this match. He stated that the team cannot allow this to become a habit, as it is happening a bit too often. Nevertheless, Liverpool still leads Arsenal by eight points, and Arsenal has one game in hand.

Liverpool's upcoming schedule is very congested, with a league game almost every three days until the end of this month. But in March, things will ease significantly, with only one league game scheduled, a home match against bottom-placed Southampton. Liverpool will play Newcastle in the League Cup final on March 16th, while Arsenal will host Chelsea in the Premier League on the same day, leaving both clubs with nine games remaining.

In addition, Liverpool will also participate in their Champions League Round of 16 first leg match on March 4th or 5th, when they will travel to either Paris Saint-Germain or Benfica. The second leg will be held at Anfield a week later. Liverpool will host Arsenal on May 10th, but at the end of the season, they will host Crystal Palace, by which time they hope to have already secured the title.

Arsenal is currently on a 15-game unbeaten run in the league (10 wins and 5 draws), their longest unbeaten streak under Mikel Arteta. They now have one Premier League game in hand over Liverpool, but will catch up by playing Chelsea on March 16th, while Liverpool is in the League Cup final. Gunners fans will hope their team is still in the title race when they travel to Anfield on May 10th, as a good result in that game would set them up well for a home game against Newcastle and then an away game against Southampton on the final day, by which time the Saints may already be relegated.

Liverpool will be away again on Sunday, traveling to face defending champions Manchester City, before Newcastle comes to Anfield next Wednesday. Slot told BBC Sport after the draw at Villa Park that every team has to play every team twice, and this week it was away against Villa, away against Manchester City. The players are used to it and used to playing for trophies.

Meanwhile, Arsenal will face six teams from the top half of the table in their remaining 13 games. This will be a stern test of Arsenal's title-winning resolve and ability.