India vs Pakistan Champions Trophy: Cricket's ultimate grudge match in the desert

The last time India and Pakistan clashed in a significant International Cricket Council (ICC) 50-over match was in 2023, during the highly anticipated World Cup league game held in Ahmedabad. That match ultimately fell short of expectations, with India delivering a dominant performance, easily chasing down the modest target set by Pakistan and securing an overwhelming victory.

With Pakistani fans unable to secure visas to travel to India, the country's only notable presence, aside from the cricket team, was in the media center. This Sunday, the two arch-rivals will meet again at the Dubai International Stadium for an ICC Champions Trophy match, where a drastically different atmosphere is anticipated. The ICC reports that tickets sold out within minutes, and with the UAE being home to over 3.7 million Indians and nearly 1.7 million Pakistanis, a vibrant and representative crowd from both nations is almost guaranteed.

But can the sea of green flags in the stands inspire Mohammad Rizwan's Pakistan team to turn the tables in this must-win encounter against Rohit Sharma's India? Pakistan can take solace from their strong track record in the UAE—19 victories in 28 ODIs, and a T20 World Cup win in Dubai in 2021. The bulk of Pakistan’s victories against India have come in Sharjah, where they dominated in the 1980s and 90s, winning 18 out of 24 matches.

Since Pakistan’s glory days in Sharjah, the situation has shifted—India has largely dominated in the new millennium, save for the occasional T20I victory. Veteran cricket writer Ayaz Memon believes there is no reason to view India-Pakistan clashes in the UAE through the prism of the past. "There is no doubt that Pakistan enjoyed tremendous crowd support in the Sharjah era, with the local Pashtun population constituting the numbers. However, the team then boasted stars like Imran Khan, Javed Miandad, Saeed Anwar, Aamir Sohail, and the two Ws (Wasim Akram and Waqar Younis)," Memon said. "Compare that to the current team, which produces some excellent results every now and then but lacks any sort of consistency."

The glitzy and ever-expanding UAE city-state of Dubai shows little sign of a major cricket event—no welcoming banners at the airport. Instead, billboards of Jannik Sinner, Iga Swiatek, and others dominate, as the city is in the throes of its annual Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships. Heading south, the 'Ring of Fire' of the Dubai International Stadium emerges from the highway, signaling cricket's presence. Giant portraits of all eight captains line the arena, but for the next two days, all eyes will be on Rohit Sharma and Mohammad Rizwan's teams as fans worldwide await their fate.

It is no secret that the ICC invariably places India and Pakistan in the same group for major events to cater to broadcasters and marketing demands. This ensures at least one high-stakes league clash and the potential for a blockbuster rematch in the knockout stages. At a time when cricket faces overexposure and its international structure is threatened by the rise of T20 franchise leagues, the India-Pakistan rivalry remains its biggest box-office draw. A big advantage of the ICC Champions Trophy’s compact, top-eight-teams format is that even the heavyweights, a minor slip-up can prove costly.

"A 50-over World Cup gives you the chance to come back even if you make an odd mistake in the game because there are 10 games to play. It is very different here, where all your three group games are important to qualify for the semi-finals," said India captain Sharma on the eve of their opening match against Bangladesh. India cleared their first hurdle by beating Bangladesh by 6 wickets on Thursday, with Shubman Gill’s fine century (cementing his status as a future ODI captain), Mohammed Shami’s five-wicket haul, and a quick cameo from captain Sharma, who crossed 11,000 runs in the format.

The absence of Jasprit Bumrah—who is expected to be recovering from a back spasm sustained in the last Test in Australia—remains a talking point. However, on this wicket, the focus will shift to the spin bowlers. Pakistan’s preparation for this tournament has been a rollercoaster—both unpredictable and fragile. Their recent three ODIs perfectly illustrated this.

Just ten days ago, Rizwan and Salman Ali Agha’s stunning 260-run partnership helped Pakistan secure a record 353-run chase against South Africa in Karachi, securing a place in the tri-series final. But a mere two days later, they faltered, putting up a mediocre performance, with New Zealand easily winning by 5 wickets, denying them the chance to gain confidence ahead of the Champions Trophy. Then on Wednesday, after their bowlers made early inroads, they let New Zealand off the hook, eventually losing their tournament opener by 60 runs. This leaves them with their backs against the wall against India—and much to the annoyance of Pakistan’s former greats, captain Rizwan’s declaration that they will treat the match against India as "just another game." History suggests that Pakistan thrives in such situations, echoing Imran Khan’s legendary "cornered tigers" rallying cry during their 1992 World Cup-winning campaign.

Yes, the odds are in India's favor, but Pakistan can never be underestimated on UAE soil. After all, it's a new day, a new battle, and anything can happen in a high-stakes match.