Crumbling fortresses - why are teams struggling to win at home? - Voice of Asia

Sir Alex Ferguson, the former Manchester United manager, once said, "We always rely on our home form." But to what extent can teams actually rely on home advantage? So far this season, only 38.7% of Premier League matches have been won by the home team, the second-lowest level on record. With away teams winning seven out of ten matches last weekend, what exactly has happened to the so-called "home advantage?"

BBC Sport has analyzed the data from this season and attempted to explain the reasons behind this phenomenon. The data shows that only the 2020-21 season had a lower home win rate than the 2024-25 season in the Premier League era. In that season, with the country under lockdown and most matches played without fans, only 37.9% of matches were won by the home team, while the away win rate was as high as 40.3%.

While the home win rate is again low this season, the data doesn't necessarily indicate a trend. With fans returning in the 2021-22 season, the home win rate rebounded to 42.9%, and even rose to 48.4% in the following season, the seventh-highest level in Premier League history. Since the Premier League was founded in the 1992-93 season, the overall percentage of home wins is 45.7%, with home teams winning 5795 out of 12667 matches. This suggests that home advantage does exist, and that it diminishes without fans.

This season, there has been much discussion about teams adopting a more counter-attacking style of play, rather than the possession-based and positional football advocated by Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola. As Guardiola recently stated, "Modern football is not positional play, you have to adapt to the rhythm." Teams like Bournemouth have achieved great success with this more aggressive style. But could this also be helping away teams? As away teams don't have to focus on controlling possession and pushing forward, they can quickly counter-attack and hurt the home team.

According to Opta data, the proportion of goals scored through "fast breaks" this season is at an all-time high. One in ten goals are scored in this way (10.2%), with the second-highest proportion being 7.7% in the 2022-23 season. In general, the number of fast breaks and direct attacks per game is increasing. This aligns with the classic "away goal" concept: absorb pressure, win back possession, and then strike the home team on the counter. Regarding away goals, away teams are averaging 1.52 goals per game this season, the highest level in Premier League history.

Returning to Ferguson's quote, his Manchester United team was renowned for turning Old Trafford into a fortress, dominating English football for a long period in the 1990s and 21st century. After Bournemouth's 3-0 victory over Manchester United in December, Bournemouth manager Andoni Iraola even humbly said, "It's not common to come to this kind of stadium and win 3-0." But that's not the case now, with the Red Devils losing 7 of their 13 home matches so far in the 2024-25 season.

Old Trafford isn't the only big stadium that seems to have lost its intimidation factor. Chelsea went 86 games unbeaten at Stamford Bridge between 2004 and 2008, but have only won 6 of their 12 home matches so far this season, although that is an improvement on last season. Meanwhile, defending champions Manchester City's 52-game unbeaten home run was ended by a 4-0 defeat to Tottenham Hotspur in November, and they have already lost 3 matches at the Etihad Stadium. Across the league, no team has managed to maintain an unbeaten home record, with league leaders Liverpool having the best home record with 9 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss.

The COVID-19 era showed that fans can have a positive impact on the home team's performance, but could home fans also have a negative impact? One might argue that the moans and groans from Everton fans towards the end of Sean Dyche's tenure contrasted sharply with the fervent passion shown under David Moyes. Have the fans had an impact on Everton? For some underperforming teams this season, their fans have at times become hostile. "You're not fit to wear the shirt," was the chant aimed at Leicester City players by their own fans during Friday's 4-0 home defeat to Brentford.

In recent weeks, protests against the club's hierarchy have become commonplace at the stadium. Perhaps coincidentally, Leicester City's home form has seen them lose six consecutive league games without scoring a goal, setting a new unwanted Premier League record. Leicester City manager Ruud van Nistelrooy agreed that fans have the right to express their opinions, but ahead of the Brentford game, he emphasized the importance of fan support for the team. "Thinking back to when I was a player, when you play in front of your home fans and in a tackle, a pass, a cross or a difficult moment in the game, the support of the fans can inspire you, and I know as a coach and someone who loves sport and football, what impact that can have on the team," he explained.

While there has been talk of using "gamesmanship" this season, perhaps this is gradually decreasing in football. Premier League directives regarding time-wasting, which have been in place since last season, may have prevented away teams from trying to steal a draw by negatively running down the clock. The average in-play time this season (57.05 minutes) is the second-highest since Opta began recording this data in the 2006-07 season. When you consider the close scrutiny of VAR, the fact that players must temporarily leave the field after receiving treatment, and that substituted players can leave the field from anywhere, it is becoming increasingly difficult for away teams to employ stalling tactics.

Perhaps teams are not winning as many home games simply because teams are better prepared to win away games, and have more reason to try to do so. Plus, there hasn't been a grey away kit in the Premier League this season...