Three things that could make a Gaza hostage deal more likely

A framework for a deal on a Gaza ceasefire and the release of hostages has existed since May in indirect talks between Israel and Hamas in Doha. So, after eight months of war stalemate, why is there now renewed expectation that this deal could work? There are some shifting political and practical circumstances behind this.

The first is the election of Donald Trump as the next US president. He has threatened that “all hell will break loose” if the hostages are not released before his inauguration on January 20th. Hamas may interpret this as meaning that even the weak brakes that the Biden administration has in the past tried to put on the Israeli government will be off. However, what this could mean for a region already devastated by 15 months of war remains to be seen.

Israel is also feeling the pressure from the incoming president to end the Gaza conflict, as it threatens the wider regional deal Trump hopes to achieve, and his desire to be seen as a president who ends wars. On the other hand, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing continued pressure from his far-right coalition allies to continue the war. But Trump may also be an asset to him, to persuade his allies to accept a deal and remain in government. The new US president and his pick for ambassador to Israel are seen as supportive of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, which Israeli far-right finance minister Bezalel Smotrich has said he wants to annex.

However, after meeting the prime minister last night, Smotrich appeared unconvinced, writing on social media that the current deal is a “disaster” for Israel’s national security, and that he would not support it. However, some in Israel believe that Smotrich and his far-right ally, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, see their current roles in the Israeli government as the best opportunity to consolidate control over the West Bank, particularly with Trump back in the White House, and are unlikely to follow through on threats to resign.

Secondly, Netanyahu is also facing increasing pressure from his own military establishment. It is widely reported that key figures have repeatedly questioned whether his military aims of continuing the war are diminishing after the killing of senior Hamas leaders and the destruction of Gaza. The deaths of 10 Israeli soldiers in Gaza last week have again raised concerns about the cost of Israel’s war, and the long-term question of whether Netanyahu’s promise of a “total victory” over Hamas is achievable. Some analysts now believe that Hamas is rebuilding faster than Israel is defeating it, and therefore Israel needs to rethink its strategy.

The third factor is a regional shift, which is also influencing expectations: the weakening and erosion of Hamas allies within Iran’s “axis of resistance”, from Hezbollah in Lebanon to Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza. For all these reasons, this is now seen as the best chance in months to bridge the gaps between Israel and Hamas and end the war.

The gaps between the two sides have not changed in the eight months since the last talks. Key among them is the direct conflict between Hamas’s primary concern and Israel’s primary concern. Hamas wants an end to the war, while Israel wants to leave the door open to a resumption of the conflict, whether for political or military reasons. As outlined by President Joe Biden in May, the deal is in three phases, with a permanent ceasefire only coming in the second phase.

Success now likely depends on finding guarantees to allay Hamas’s concerns that Israel will walk away from the deal after the first phase of releasing hostages. The question of how the territory will be managed after an Israeli withdrawal is also currently unclear. But the flurry of diplomacy across the region in the past week, and the fact that Netanyahu sent the heads of Israel’s security establishment and a key political advisor to Doha for the talks, are encouraging signs. The presence of Palestinian detainees coordinator, Qadura Fares, in Doha is also a positive signal.

A deal is not yet done, and talks have broken down before. This old deal has been given new hope partly because the negotiations are taking place in a new regional context, with increasing internal and allied pressure.