Syrians eye future without Russia, but Moscow still hopes to stay

For years, Russia and Syria have been significant partners. Moscow gained access to air and naval bases in the Mediterranean, while Damascus received military support in its fight against rebel forces. However, with the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime, many Syrians hope for the withdrawal of Russian troops, while their interim government has expressed a willingness for further cooperation.

"The crimes that Russia committed here are indescribable," said Ahmed Taha, a rebel commander in Douma, located six miles northeast of Damascus. The city was once a prosperous area in what was known as the "breadbasket" of Damascus. Ahmed Taha, once a civilian, took up arms against the Assad regime after the brutal crackdown on protests in 2011.

Entire residential areas of Douma are now ruins, having been one of the fiercest battlegrounds of Syria's nearly 14-year civil war. Moscow intervened in the conflict in 2015 to support the then-faltering regime. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov later claimed that Damascus was only weeks away from being overrun by rebels at the time of the intervention. The military operation in Syria displayed Russian President Vladimir Putin's ambition to be taken more seriously after the widespread international condemnation of the annexation of Crimea.

Moscow claims to have tested 320 different types of weapons in Syria. It also secured a 49-year lease on two military bases along the Mediterranean coast—the naval base in Tartus and the air base in Khmeimim. This allows the Kremlin to rapidly expand its influence in Africa, serving as a springboard for Russian operations in Libya, the Central African Republic, Mali, and Burkina Faso. Despite the support of Russia and Iran, Assad was unable to prevent the collapse of his regime, but Moscow provided him and his family with sanctuary.

Now, many Syrian civilians and rebel fighters see Russia as an accomplice to the Assad regime, helping to destroy their homes. "The Russians came to this country and helped the tyrant, the oppressor, and the invader," said Abu Hisham during celebrations in Damascus over the regime's fall. The Kremlin has consistently denied this, claiming it only targeted jihadist groups like ISIS or al-Qaeda. However, the UN and human rights organizations have accused both the regime and Russia of war crimes.

According to a UN report, during an assault on densely populated East Aleppo in 2016, Syrian and Russian forces conducted relentless airstrikes that "claimed hundreds of lives and reduced hospitals, schools, and markets to rubble." In Aleppo, Douma, and elsewhere, regime forces besieged rebel-held areas, cutting off food and medicine, and continued to bombard them until the armed opposition surrendered. Russia also negotiated ceasefires and surrender agreements for rebel-held towns and cities, such as Douma in 2018.

Ahmed Taha was one of the rebels who agreed to surrender in exchange for safe passage out of the city after a five-year siege by Syrian forces. He returned to Douma in December as part of a rebel offensive led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its leader, Ahmed Shala. "Despite Russia, despite the regime and all who support it, we have returned to our home," Taha said. He has no doubt that the Russians should leave: "For us, Russia is the enemy."

Many of those we interviewed expressed this sentiment. Even leaders of the Syrian Christian community, which Russia pledged to protect, say they received little help from Moscow. In Bab Touma, the old Christian quarter of Damascus, the Patriarch of the Syrian Orthodox Church said: "We have not experienced protection from Russia or from anyone outside." "The Russians came here for their own interests and goals," Ignatius Aphrem II told the BBC. Other Syrian Christians were less diplomatic. "When they first came, they said: 'We are here to help you,'" said a man named Assad. "But they did not help us, they destroyed Syria even more."

Shala, now the de facto leader of Syria, told the BBC in an interview last month that he does not rule out allowing the Russians to stay, describing the relationship between the two countries as "strategic." Moscow seized on his words, with Foreign Minister Lavrov agreeing that Russia has "a lot in common with our Syrian friends." But untangling these relationships in the post-Assad era may not be easy.

Defense analyst and retired Syrian army general Turki Hassan said that rebuilding the Syrian army would either require a completely fresh start or a continued reliance on Russian supplies, meaning that some kind of relationship between the two countries will remain at least for some time. Hassan said that Syria’s military cooperation with Moscow predates the Assad regime. He explained that nearly all the equipment it has is Soviet or Russian-made. "From the beginning, the Syrian army was equipped with weapons from the Eastern bloc."

According to Russian estimates, between 1956 and 1991, Syria received about 5,000 tanks, 1,200 combat aircraft, 70 naval vessels, and many other systems and weapons worth more than $26 billion (£21 billion) from Moscow. Much of this was to support Syria's wars with Israel, which largely defined the country's foreign policy since its independence from France in 1946. More than half of this was unpaid at the collapse of the Soviet Union, but in 2005, President Putin wrote off 73% of the debt.

For now, Russian officials have adopted a conciliatory but cautious tone toward the interim rulers who have overthrown their long-time ally. Vasily Nebenzya, Moscow's envoy to the UN, said that recent events marked a new phase in the history of what he called the "brotherly Syrian people." He said Russia would provide humanitarian aid and reconstruction support to enable Syrian refugees to return home.