The AFL, 'Vic bias' and the flawed logic behind Opening Round

During the Australian Football League (AFL) pre-season Captains Day event, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) sports content team posed a controversial question to the league's captains: Does a Victorian bias truly exist? This is an issue that has garnered significant attention online, and it elicited a variety of responses from the players.

Some players laughed off the question, offering a definitive "of course" in response; while others glanced nervously behind them, as if worried that AFL executives would stuff them in a sack for giving the wrong answer. Zach Merrett, on the other hand, looked the interviewer in the eye with a politician's response. But almost all acknowledged that the league, whether in quantifiable or mysterious ways, favors its traditional Victorian base.

It is on this vague notion that the AFL introduced the "Opening Round" event. Now that the second Opening Round has concluded, it's time to evaluate it. The league proclaimed: "We're taking the game to the northern states! This is a national competition, and Queensland and New South Wales deserve their due attention!"

The Victorian perspective seems to be that allowing Brisbane, Gold Coast, Sydney, and GWS to each host a home game against a traditional Victorian powerhouse a week before other league teams join in is a giant leap for Australian football in those states. How this achieves that goal remains unclear. Ticket sales in Sydney and Brisbane were strong, but this was to be expected. The Lions had just won the Grand Final and would be raising the flag against the Cats, while the Swans have always enjoyed good support at the Sydney Cricket Ground. The Giants' game against Collingwood on Sunday was far from sold out, and we'll never know how many people would have attended the Suns' game against the Bombers on Saturday.

But would anyone specifically attend any of these games because North Melbourne wasn't playing St Kilda on the same day in Docklands? It's difficult to understand the logic that fewer football games in Melbourne would translate to more people watching football in Sydney. As many have pointed out, the northern states could still have their own significant matches without everyone in Adelaide, Perth, Melbourne, and elsewhere waiting a week for their turn.

In fact, the existence of the Opening Round has only one advantage, and that's one felt only by league headquarters. This abridged prologue to the season ensures an extra Thursday night and an extra Friday night in front of a primetime national television audience without any team playing an extra game. From a broadcast and profit perspective, it extends the season without having to convince players to play an additional regular season match.

The postponement of two games this week due to Tropical Cyclone Alfred was unfortunate and obviously beyond the AFL's control, but by rescheduling the Suns vs. Bombers game to the bye week before the finals, they were able to achieve the same effect—adding another Thursday or Friday night blockbuster to the TV guide. It's hard to sell this as a win to the average football fan, who is hungry for games and eager to see their team begin its inevitable march towards the 2025 Grand Final. Especially considering the cost attached.

One might point to the overall lack of enthusiasm generated by the Opening Round, but this is far less important than its impact on players and competitive imbalance. The AFL pre-season is getting shorter and shorter, players are now entitled to more time off over summer, and the start date of the season is creeping ever closer to summer.

Nick Daicos has been the epitome of meticulous preparation and football conditioning almost since he entered the league, but in Sunday's game, he barely made it to the third quarter before cramping up like your uncle on a trampoline. Players are finding it difficult to get their bodies ready for the start of the season, a problem exacerbated by the fact that some teams next week will be facing sides that have shaken off the tricky start, are battle-hardened, and in form.

Then, less than a month into the season, they get another bye to recover, while the rest of the league grinds its way towards the mid-season break. These are very real factors that could play a part in a club's success or failure in a season. All of this for the benefit of northern states clubs (who, you might have noticed, are actually doing pretty well at the moment) and a boon for broadcasters.

If there is an inherent Victorian bias in the league, as most AFL captains seem to acknowledge, this certainly isn't the way to address it. A deeper analysis of travel requirements, fixture scheduling issues, soft cap concessions, and media attention might go further in bridging that gap. If that could actually be achieved, then no one would mind if the season started with a full slate of nine games and kicked off on a Thursday night at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.