Can Nottingham Forest really win the Premier League?

Is it really possible for Nottingham Forest to win the Premier League title? Leicester City shocked the world in 2016 by winning the Premier League, so could Nottingham Forest repeat this miracle? The team is currently third in the Premier League, boasting the joint-second best defense and the most clean sheets, and is no longer a surprise dark horse.

If they beat Liverpool on Tuesday, they will match the club's record of seven consecutive top-flight wins, set in 1922. If they can do the double over the Premier League leaders, they will be just three points off the top. This all comes after a difficult struggle last season, where they were deducted four points for breaching profit and sustainability rules and only narrowly avoided relegation on the final day, finishing 17th. Last season was turbulent, with controversial social media posts, refereeing disputes, VAR complaints, and a change of manager.

Perhaps, back in August, some at the City Ground felt Forest needed a quiet season. A season without too many waves, both on and off the pitch, would represent progress. However, under Nuno Espirito Santo, who was named Manager of the Month in December, they have exceeded all expectations. In the Premier League, only four teams have failed to finish in the top four when they have had 40 or more points after the first 20 games. Since 2000, the average points total for winning the Premier League is 89.2, with 81.6 for second place, 74.5 for third, 69.5 for fourth, and 65.6 for fifth.

Despite this, Opta’s prediction model still gives Forest a 0% chance of winning the title and only a 0.7% chance of finishing second, which is in stark contrast to the confidence within the team. "We are in the title race because we deserve to be," said Forest defender Murillo. Liverpool manager Arne Slot agreed, saying on Monday that Forest are "absolutely a team that is competing with us and the other top teams."

Forest's points tally is level with Leicester City's, and comparisons with their East Midlands rivals are inevitable. Leicester's title win in 2016 at odds of 5000-1 was one of the greatest achievements in sporting history, with Leicester initially being relegation favorites after narrowly avoiding the drop the previous season. Claudio Ranieri’s side eventually won the league by 10 points, losing just three games. They had 40 points after 20 games in the 2015-16 season, the same as Forest’s current total. Leicester's success was built on Jamie Vardy’s pace, the threat of Riyad Mahrez and Marc Albrighton on the flanks, and the energy of N’Golo Kante in midfield. Wes Morgan, who joined from Forest in 2012, captained them to the title after spending 10 years at the City Ground.

"In the last few games, when the title was within touching distance, things got a bit tense, and you start thinking, 'Okay, we can't slip up,'" said Morgan, "whereas before that, it was, 'We've got nothing to lose, we're doing well, let's just keep going.'" Defender Morgan made 323 appearances for Leicester and won the FA Cup in 2021. Morgan explained the process of chasing the title: "When you get so close to achieving something that no one thought was possible, you start taking things more seriously... I’m not saying we weren’t serious before, but it’s more of an emphasis on making sure we’re doing things right."

Forest have a striker in Chris Wood, like Vardy, who has scored 12 goals, with Callum Hudson-Odoi and Anthony Elanga on the flanks, and Morgan Gibbs-White and Elliot Anderson in midfield. Forest are considered one of the best counter-attacking teams in the Premier League, but the statistics don’t support this. Their 33 fast breaks have resulted in 29 shots, but only four goals. This number is surprisingly low considering Forest's danger. Tottenham have scored the most counter-attack goals with 10, while Chelsea, Liverpool, and Wolves have all scored more than Forest.

Elanga has scored three goals in his last five games, his first since last February. He also has four assists, while Hudson-Odoi has two goals and two assists. There is no doubt they both need more end product. Forest's big chance conversion rate is 31.9%, scoring 15 goals from 47 chances. Elanga and Hudson-Odoi have created six of those chances, the same as Morgan Gibbs-White. They also have the lowest possession rate in the Premier League at 39.4%, with only Everton, Ipswich, Leicester, Wolves, and Southampton having a worse expected goals (xG) than Forest's 25.9. Nuno's team have completed just 929 passes into the attacking third, with only Southampton (887) and Ipswich (925) having fewer. Arsenal top the list with 3192.

These statistics suggest that Forest are defying data trends, but they are ruthless and efficient, and Nuno has praised their spirit. After beating Burnley on the final day of last season to avoid relegation, Nuno told the team that they stayed up because of their character, calling them good people. He likes to work with a small group and make everyone feel like they have a chance of getting into the team, which has also fostered team cohesion. "It’s not good enough," he joked last week about the spirit, "It means a lot for the team; when they have special moments, everyone sees how happy they are."

On February 1 last year, Forest announced the signing of Matz Sels from Strasbourg in France for around £5m. Matt Turner had previously joined from Arsenal for £10m, and Forest also purchased Odysseas Vlachodimos from Benfica. Turner made 21 appearances in all competitions, and Vlachodimos seven, before Nuno (who replaced Steve Cooper in December 2023) turned to Sels. The Belgian new recruit has only managed one clean sheet (against West Ham) and has conceded 27 goals in Forest's relegation battle. However, with the summer additions of Milenkovic and Murillo, as well as the impressive Brazilian Murillo at the City Ground, they now have one of the tightest defenses. "Forest should keep Murillo for a long time, he's an incredible young player," said Morgan, who is now a national scout for Forest, having made more than 400 appearances for the Reds before his move to Leicester.

"The arrival of Milenkovic has just been an addition to him. The positional sense between the two players is good, and I think that’s key to a successful defense." Morgan linked this to his partnership with Robert Huth at Leicester, adding, "Me and Huthy had that understanding where we could play with our eyes closed, and I knew exactly where he was going to be. It's the same with Murillo and Milenkovic." The defensive unit of Sels, Ola Aina, Milenkovic, Murillo, Murillo, and Neco Williams cost Forest just over £50m. Along with Liverpool, Forest have conceded just 19 goals in 20 games, with only Arsenal conceding fewer. "The title is not over, and we want to make sure the clean sheets keep coming," said Murillo, highlighting the determination within the team, who have made the most clearances in the league this season, with 563. Sels has faced 259 shots, the same as Crystal Palace’s Dean Henderson, and only behind Brentford’s Mark Flekken (342) and Leicester’s Mads Hermansen (287).

Not all shots are on target, but Sels has been busy and performed well. His save percentage of 75.3% is the highest in the Premier League among goalkeepers who have played more than 500 minutes. Forest’s expected goals against (21.7) this season is also only bettered by Liverpool and Arsenal. Sels' impact has been immediate. Since February 1, Forest have conceded 46 goals in the Premier League, with only Arsenal, Manchester City, and Liverpool performing better than them.

While the defense has impressed, Wood has grabbed most of the headlines. The New Zealand international has scored 12 goals in all competitions, including the second in the 3-0 win over Wolves last Monday. The victory at Molineux seemed to be written in the script. A counter-attacking goal from Gibbs-White and a simple finish from Wood after a cross from Hudson-Odoi gave them a 2-0 lead at halftime. Whether the headline writers can predict the outcome of Tuesday's game remains to be seen. Forest’s win at Anfield in September, thanks to a goal from Hudson-Odoi, came when they had just 30% possession and less than half the passes (273) of the home side Liverpool (604). Forest made three blocks to deny clear-cut chances and 30 clearances, while Sels made five saves. Nuno used five midfielders to restrict the Reds, and he is likely to set up in a similar way against Slot’s team again. Forest use a mid-block, which allows them to win the ball back and create space for their wingers, which they wouldn't have if they had a higher possession.

In a congested midfield, which is likely to be the case on Tuesday, there is little space for Liverpool to exploit. This season, Forest are bottom for possession and 19th for pressing in the attacking third and sequences of more than 10 passes. However, they are the kings of clearances and have an average of 4.1 defenders behind the ball each time they face a shot, which is the best in the league. Liverpool's expected goals (xG) of 44.5 is almost double that of Forest, and they have scored 35 of their 85 big chances. Their expected goals against (17.9) is also the best in the league this season. Slot’s team, who have taken over from Jurgen Klopp, are used to games against potential title rivals. This Forest team is in new territory. The club has not been in European competition since the 1995-96 season, since the era of Frank Clark, and earlier this month was the 50th anniversary of Brian Clough’s appointment, which was the springboard for their glory years at home and abroad. Will a new generation be involved in a special title challenge? "I don't think you can say no, just because of where they are, their points, and their form," said Morgan. "It's a tough ask, but anything is possible in football."