Israeli negotiators are scheduled to resume talks on a Gaza ceasefire in Doha, the capital of Qatar, on Tuesday, with U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff also participating.
The first phase of the agreement expired on March 1, after which Israel resumed sporadic airstrikes on Gaza, resulting in the deaths of dozens of Palestinians. Israel has refused to enter the second phase of the agreement, which involves a complete withdrawal from the region.
However, what may be making this round of discussions even more urgent is not just that. The United States is now holding direct talks with Hamas, which has been designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S. since 1997, casting a shadow over the negotiations.
Adam Boehler, President Donald Trump's head of hostage affairs, told CNN: "I thought it was a very productive meeting, and it was helpful to hear both sides." He stated that he had to seize the opportunity because Gaza was holding an American citizen and the remains of four Americans.
Israeli officials are reportedly furious about the meeting. While Boehler expressed "sympathy," he seemed even more resolute in his remarks, which no U.S. government has made in decades. "We're not agents of Israel," Boehler said in an interview with CNN. "We have our own specific interests, we had back and forth, we have very specific parameters. The fact that I wanted to do it was to unstick some negotiations that were in a very fragile state."
Later, in an interview with Israeli media, Boehler said that Hamas had introduced new elements in the ceasefire negotiations: a truce agreement for five to ten years, instead of a demand for a permanent ceasefire, and an offer to lay down arms and even dismantle its vast tunnel network.
Facing strong opposition from Israeli hardliners and their supporters, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters on Monday that Boehler's meeting with Hamas officials was "one-off" and that "nothing has come of it so far."
Rubio said: "He had the opportunity to speak directly to the people that control these individuals and was allowed and encouraged to do so. He did." He continued that Boehler "wasn't wrong to try," but "our primary negotiating tool in this remains Mr. Witkoff and the work he's doing through the Qataris."
However, Witkoff made it clear in an interview with Fox News earlier that day that Hamas must completely leave Gaza in order for a permanent negotiated solution to be reached. He said: "They have no reasonable or rational option other than to leave. If they leave, then I think everything can be on the table for a peace agreement, and that's what they need to do."
Nizar Fazaq, a former advisor on Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, said: "They are disorganized. Furthermore, everyone has their own remit: Witkoff is more focused on a ceasefire, while Boehler is focused on hostages, and ultimately, neither of them will do anything other than what Trump directs."
Fazaq added that Trump "never misses an opportunity to do something completely different and out of sync with previous administrations, just to show that he's right and everything else was wrong."
Hamas is also shifting its position. Why make further concessions now? Does this mean that Israel's blockade on all aid entering the Gaza Strip is squeezing the group?
Fazaq told Middle East Eye: "The concession is worth it because they actually get American recognition. So, they get an actual deal, they don't need to be in power, they just continue to exist, and they get some sort of protection from assassinations. They are very happy not to rule Gaza, but to let someone else rule it and deal with those headaches."
As for the issue of laying down arms, which Hamas has long said would be its red line, this may simply indicate that it no longer wants to fight this particular war. Zaha Hassan, a human rights lawyer and fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told Middle East Eye: "It may not necessarily mean disarming."
Hamas spokesman Abdul Latif Qanou said on Monday that his organization "softened our demands at the request of the mediators and Trump's envoy, and we are waiting for the results of the negotiations."
He said: "Israel's responsibility is to agree to enter the second phase. The basis of the talks is to end the war, withdraw troops, and rebuild the Gaza Strip. We agreed to the Egyptian proposal to establish a committee responsible for managing the Gaza Strip and its reconstruction."
This Egyptian proposal, forcibly promoted by Trump, who had previously threatened to turn Gaza into an American-owned beach resort, was finalized last week and adopted by all Arab countries at a meeting in Cairo.
The $53 billion, 91-page, five-year plan makes no mention of Hamas, but focuses primarily on what the architectural structure of Gaza will look like after Arab and Muslim countries make substantial investments in rebuilding the region.
However, the plan does state that the Palestinian Authority will oversee the management of reconstruction through a "Gaza Management Committee" for a period of six months. The proposal states that the committee will be composed of technocrats and non-partisan members.
Hassan told Middle East Eye: "Creating a situation that would bring Hamas under the PLO framework, so that the PLO can be responsible for dealing with this in one voice, would help reach a political solution and moderate Hamas. So, it makes sense for the U.S. to talk to Hamas."
But the PLO, the umbrella organization that has been responsible for leading the struggle against Israel for Palestinian statehood since its establishment in 1964, has faced increasing questions about its relevance in recent years and has been criticized for failing to hold regular elections to fill leadership positions. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas remains its chairman.
Abbas himself lacks legitimacy among Palestinians in the occupied West Bank, where he rules, and in Gaza. Many view the Palestinian Authority as an enforcer of the Israeli occupation. Its forces are trained and funded by the United States.
Fazaq told Middle East Eye: "I think what's important is the internal Palestinian dialogue. Where is Abu Mazen in all of this?" He was referring to Abbas's popular nickname among Palestinians.
"Gaza will most likely become its own thing. Everyone will pay lip service to the West Bank and Gaza Strip being one territory, but in reality, we will have a different entity, just like East Jerusalem is separated from the West Bank."
Ultimately, without Trump "showing leadership" on the issue, regardless of his positions in other areas, the Arab proposal for post-war Gaza would not have happened. "When Trump said that Egypt needed to take a million Gazans, suddenly all the Arabs got together, they met in seconds, and they had time to visit, I mean, it proves that Trump is proving that the U.S. has more influence there," Fazaq said.
Hassan said that breaking established rules is necessary for change. She told Middle East Eye: "We are at a moment where we need to try new policies. There is no question that if you want to see a stable situation in Gaza, if you want to reach a permanent political solution where Palestinians and Israelis can live in safety, you are going to have to deal with the actors on the ground."