Analysis: Sudan faces possible Darfur division as war progresses

After nearly two years of fighting between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Sudan is facing the threat of a de facto split, roughly dividing the Darfur region from the rest of the country. The RSF is deeply entrenched in the western region, an area almost the size of France. Meanwhile, the army is advancing in other parts of the country, potentially solidifying this division.

Analysts point out that if this happens, it could not only lead to more localized conflicts within the country, but also to further national collapse. "A split would be the beginning of the end for Sudan," said Kholood Khair, founder of Confluence Advisory, a think tank focused on Sudanese political affairs.

Given the destruction Sudan has already suffered, it's hard to imagine things getting worse. Since fighting broke out between the army and the RSF in April 2023 over control of the country, tens of thousands have died, millions have been displaced, and millions more face starvation. However, Khair told Al Jazeera that if the split becomes more entrenched, and fighting gradually subsides, it could unravel and fracture the loose alliances built around the army and the RSF, making a lasting peace agreement more difficult. “The country would immediately unravel and it would be harder to put back together,” she said.

The Sudanese army has recently achieved a significant victory, regaining control of Wad Madani, Sudan’s second-largest city. Wad Madani had been under RSF control for a year, during which local monitoring groups say the RSF committed serious human rights abuses. Since then, there have been credible reports that the army has been executing people suspected of being linked to the RSF, claims the army denies, but has been previously accused of similar crimes. The RSF’s failure to hold Wad Madani is partly attributed to its inability to recruit loyal soldiers outside of Darfur.

The Darfur region is the traditional stronghold of the RSF. The paramilitary force was formed from the tribal “Janjaweed” militia, which became a notorious government-backed group during the Darfur war, used as a counter-insurgency force. There is limited support for the RSF outside of Darfur. Analysts believe the RSF may lose control of the capital, Khartoum, in the coming weeks, which could force it to retreat and focus on its attempt to seize al-Fashir, the capital of North Darfur. The city has been besieged by the RSF for months, with hundreds killed, according to the UN.

With the RSF already controlling the eastern, western, central and southern parts of Darfur, seizing the northern capital would bring the entire region under its control. This would be a significant victory, as the resource-rich Darfur region strategically borders Chad, South Sudan and Libya. “This looks like a situation that both (the army and the RSF) are happy to see, because it allows both sides to have a military win, where otherwise, that’s not the case,” said Khair.

The war in Sudan has drawn in foreign powers, which has enabled both the army and the RSF to sustain their war efforts and control large swathes of the country. A year ago, the army was on the verge of collapse after losing Gezira state, prompting calls for the head of the army, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, to step down. Khair said that this shocking defeat prompted increased support from Iran, Turkey and Egypt to save the army. “Those who support the army say that it’s a completely different army than it was last year,” she told Al Jazeera. “They have better weapons, they’re doing better logistically, and they have a lot of help from Egypt and Turkey. … It’s a very different army than it was last year.”

Khair said that Egypt has long insisted that Gezira and Khartoum must be brought back under army control to solidify its legitimacy as the undisputed sovereign authority. She added that Cairo would like the army to regain all of Sudan, but could accept a situation where the RSF is pushed back into Darfur. “Maybe Egypt can live with a split,” Khair said.

Sudanese policy analyst Hamid Khalafallah said that if the RSF further consolidates its position, the Sudanese army may find it difficult to retake Darfur. He said that if the RSF manages to control all of Darfur, they would likely be able to control the region indefinitely. “It would take a lot of effort for the army to defeat the RSF in Darfur, and it doesn’t look like the army is even interested (in retaking the region),” Khalafallah told Al Jazeera.

But that would mean abandoning local groups such as the Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM-MM), led by Minni Arko Minnawi, and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), which announced their support for the army against the RSF in November 2023. These two groups are primarily made up of non-Arab Zaghawa fighters. In the peripheries of Sudan, “non-Arabs” mainly designate settled farmers, while “Arabs” are seen as pastoralists and nomads. They are both Black and Muslim, and have intermarried for centuries. During the Darfur war, the SLM and JEM rebelled against the central government to protest the economic and political marginalization of their region.

Over the past two decades, the two groups have signed a number of peace deals in the hope of gaining access to state resources and accumulating some power in the country. Analysts told Al Jazeera that the same motivations have led the groups to support the army in the current war. They added that the army might abandon these armed movements and their allies in exchange for taking Khartoum. But this does not necessarily mean the end of anti-RSF resistance in Darfur, nor does it rule out the possibility of the SLM and JEM reaching a deal with the RSF.

Annette Hoffman, a Sudan expert at the Clingendael Institute, an independent Dutch think tank, told Al Jazeera, “Even if the RSF reorganizes and focuses on taking al-Fashir, it doesn’t mean that it will win easily, even if (the army) abandons Darfur,” explaining that the armed movements in al-Fashir are fighters capable of putting up a strong resistance. Suliman Baldo, founder of the think tank Sudan Transparency and Policy Tracker, said that both the RSF and the army are outsourcing the fighting to allied groups. The nature of these forces, if they consolidate control of their respective strongholds, could lead to fierce infighting within the army and the RSF.

Last year, infighting already broke out between two Arab tribes, the Salamat and the Beni Halba, who were fighting in support of the RSF in South and Central Darfur, leading to mass displacement and high casualties. According to local news reports, the two sides clashed over spoils of war. Additionally, the army and its allied movements are recruiting civilians into auxiliary militias, which Baldo believes will eventually become more powerful and then force the army to grant them more power and wealth, similar to the Arab tribal militias that eventually became the RSF. “In any post-conflict situation, (each militia group within the army) will demand a share of the wealth and power,” Baldo warned. “The army thinks it can manipulate these groups, but they are creating chaos.”