Today's vote in the German Parliament (Bundestag) will have a profound impact on the future of European defense and continued support for Ukraine. The vote aims to lift restrictions on defense spending, paving the way for massive military investment. At the same time, Russia is making progress in Ukraine, and the United States has hinted that Europe can no longer fully rely on American protection.
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03-21, 2025Professor Monika Schnitzer, Chair of the German Council of Economic Experts, stated: "This vote in the German Parliament is crucial." She added that after the Munich Security Conference and the dispute between Trump and Zelensky, Europe has been given a wake-up call. The possibility that Europeans may not be able to rely on the United States for the first time is keeping many people up at night.
Dr. Fenella McGerty, a senior research fellow for defense economics at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, also believes that the prospects for European defense spending depend on Germany's development, as Germany has the largest defense budget in the region. Last year, Germany's defense spending increased by 23.2%, driving a record 11.7% increase in European defense spending. Dr. McGerty added: "Germany's announced extraordinary measures are key to achieving further growth. Without these measures, any progress Germany makes in strengthening its military capabilities could stall."
Germany's new Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, is racing against time. The new parliament will convene on March 25, and not everyone is in favor of allocating so much money to defense. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the far-left Left Party (Linke) have both vowed to oppose it. The vote requires a two-thirds majority to pass, so Merz is more likely to achieve this under the existing (old) parliament. Then, it needs to be approved by the German Federal Council.
Meanwhile, Europe is still struggling to adapt to the shock of the announcements made by the Trump administration. At the Munich Security Conference last month, US Vice President JD Vance stunned attendees by lashing out at Europe's immigration and freedom of speech policies. Prior to this, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth told NATO members that the 80-year American defense umbrella for Europe should no longer be taken for granted.
European defense strategists are already preparing for the unimaginable: Russia achieves a partial victory in Ukraine, then rebuilds its military and threatens NATO's eastern members, such as the Baltic states, in three years or less. At the same time, the United States' commitment to European defense looks extremely unstable. President Trump is being urged by some within his circle to withdraw American troops from Europe, or even withdraw from NATO altogether.
Currently, there are discussions about France expanding its national nuclear deterrent to cover other European countries. Meanwhile, after years of cuts, most European governments are facing pressure to increase defense spending. The size of the British army has now shrunk to its smallest size since the Napoleonic Wars, more than 200 years ago, and experts predict that if a full-scale conventional war breaks out in Europe, the British army will run out of ammunition within two weeks.
Germany has long been cautious about defense spending, not only for historical reasons since 1945, but also due to the global debt crisis in 2009. This leads to today's crucial vote in the German Parliament. It's not just about defense. Part of it is to release 500 billion euros (£420 billion) for German infrastructure - repairing bridges and roads, etc. - while also funding measures to address climate change, which the Green Party insists on.
Another part is to lift the constitutional restrictions on borrowing, which in theory could release unlimited billions of euros for defense spending, for the German army and pan-European defense funds. On March 4, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced an 800 billion euro defense fund plan called "Reinforcing Europe Fund". The proposal Berlin is voting on is that any defense spending exceeding 1% of Germany's GDP (national wealth) will no longer be subject to borrowing restrictions. So far, this debt ceiling is fixed at 0.35% of GDP. Other countries will be closely watching whether the proposal passes. If it doesn't pass, the European Commission's "Reinforcing Europe" project may have a shaky start.
The security challenges facing Europe today are severe. If the United States no longer supports Europe, or at least cannot be relied upon to defend Europe, what does the continent need to do to fill this gap? Let's start with the numbers. According to precise tracking by the Kiel Institute, Europe has only spent 0.1% of its wealth to help defend Ukraine, while the United States has been spending 0.15%. Giuseppe Ielto of the Kiel Institute said: "This means that if Europe is to make up for this gap, it needs to double its contribution to 0.21%."
But regardless of what happens in Berlin today, it's not just about money. Many of the most popular weapons in Ukraine's arsenal come from the United States, such as the Patriot air defense system and the HIMARS long-range artillery system. Kiel Institute data shows that 86% of Ukraine's rocket launchers and 82% of its howitzer ammunition come from the United States. In addition, there is the entire issue of American intelligence assistance to Kyiv, most of which comes from satellites and geospatial imagery. If Washington permanently shuts down this assistance, the Ukrainian army may face partial blindness.
Without considering the US nuclear arsenal, there is a huge gap between Russia's 5,000+ warheads and the combined total of British and French nuclear warheads, which is less than one-tenth of the former. But in theory, it is still enough to act as a nuclear deterrent. In terms of "conventional" or non-nuclear weapons, Western defense ministers like to say that NATO's combined forces are superior to Russia's.
Maybe so, but if there is one clear lesson from the war in Ukraine, it is that "quantity" matters. The quality of the Russian army may be poor, but President Putin has been able to deploy such a vast number of soldiers, drones, shells and missiles to the Ukrainian front that the Russians are inevitably advancing, albeit slowly and at great cost. This should not be surprising. Moscow has long put its economy on a war footing. It appointed an economist as Minister of Defense and transformed many factories to mass produce ammunition, especially explosive-headed drones.
While many European countries are dragging their feet on raising defense spending to the NATO-mandated 2% of GDP, Russia's defense spending is close to 7%. Russia spends about 40% of its national budget on defense. Therefore, if Europe is to come close to strengthening its defense and security, there is much work to be done.
Ed Arnold, Senior Research Fellow for European Security at the Royal United Services Institute, said: "If the vote passes, it will have significant implications for both Germany and Europe. It will set a precedent and allow others to follow suit... However, three years after the invasion of Ukraine, the German case reminds us that more defense funding is necessary but not sufficient. Europe needs defense and security leaders who can navigate the rapidly deteriorating Euro-Atlantic security environment. Cultural reform, rather than financial reform, is the most valuable thing for Europe."
