Long-overdue Gaza ceasefire may stop the killing, but won't end the conflict

The achievement of a ceasefire agreement is a significant accomplishment, and one that was long overdue. Various versions of this agreement have been on the negotiating table since last May, with both Hamas and Israel blaming each other for the delays.

Israel's response to the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023, which killed approximately 1,200 people, mostly Israeli civilians, has left Gaza in ruins. The majority of Gaza's over two million people have been displaced. According to the Hamas-controlled health ministry, Israeli attacks have resulted in the deaths of nearly 50,000 people, including both combatants and civilians. A recent study in the medical journal The Lancet suggests this number may be severely underestimated.

The primary challenge is ensuring the ceasefire agreement holds. Senior Western diplomats fear that the war may reignite after the initial 42-day truce period. The Gaza war has had a tremendous impact on the Middle East. While it has not led to a full-scale regional war as many feared, a point the Biden administration has taken credit for, it has resulted in a dramatic shift in geostrategy.

Hamas still possesses fighting capabilities, but they are greatly diminished. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former defense minister have been accused of war crimes by the International Criminal Court. The International Court of Justice is investigating a case brought by South Africa accusing Israel of genocide.

Lebanon’s Hezbollah, after intervening in the war, was eventually routed by Israeli incursions. This was also a contributing factor in the fall of Syria’s Assad regime. Direct attacks between Iran and Israel have weakened Iran. The network of allies and proxies that Tehran calls the “Axis of Resistance” has also been crippled. Yemen’s Houthi rebels have halted most shipping between Europe and Asia through the Red Sea, and it remains to be seen whether they will honor their commitment to stop attacks once a ceasefire in Gaza takes effect.

As for the long-term conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, it remains as intense as ever. The ceasefire agreement may halt the killings and allow Israeli hostages, as well as Palestinian detainees and prisoners, to return to their families. However, it does not end a conflict that has lasted for over a century.