In a recent interview, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi offered a positive assessment of India's relationship with its long-time rival, China. He stated that the disputed border region between India and China has returned to a state of normalcy and called for strengthened ties between the two countries. These remarks suggest a desire on India's part to ease tensions with China and lay the groundwork for future cooperation.
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03-24, 2025These comments are noteworthy because relations have been highly strained since the 2020 clash in the northern Ladakh region, which was the deadliest since the 1962 war. Nevertheless, Prime Minister Modi's statement hints at India's willingness to improve bilateral relations and sets the tone for the future development of ties between the two nations.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning expressed appreciation for Modi's remarks, stating that "the two countries should be partners for mutual achievement." This response indicates China's willingness to build closer ties with India and seek mutually beneficial cooperation. China's positive response creates favorable conditions for the further development of bilateral relations.
Modi's call for a closer partnership is not quite the huge leap it appears to be on the surface, as bilateral relations have improved recently. Bilateral trade has remained strong, with China remaining India's largest trading partner even after the Ladakh clash. The two countries have also cooperated in multilateral forums, from BRICS (a bloc of major developing countries) to the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Both sides share common interests in promoting non-Western economic models, combating Islamic terrorism, and opposing what they see as American moral interference.
Even after the Ladakh clash sent relations to their lowest point in decades, the two militaries have continued to hold high-level talks, and in October, they reached an agreement to resume border patrols. Modi also met with Chinese President Xi Jinping that month at the BRICS summit in Russia, where they pledged further cooperation. In January of this year, the two sides agreed to restore direct flights. These moves suggest that despite their differences, the two countries are working to maintain channels for dialogue and cooperation.
Nevertheless, problems remain in the relationship. Both sides maintain close security ties with the other's main rival: India with the United States, and China with Pakistan. China objects to India's policies in the disputed Kashmir region. Beijing has hindered India's great-power ambitions by blocking it from joining influential groups such as the Nuclear Suppliers Group and becoming a permanent member of the UN Security Council. China maintains a large naval presence in India's wider maritime backyard, along with its only overseas military base. The Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing's connectivity corridor to expand its influence in India's neighborhood, is staunchly opposed by Delhi because it passes through territory claimed by India.
Meanwhile, India is deepening its relationship with Taiwan, which China views as a breakaway province. India hosts the exiled Tibetan leader, the Dalai Lama, whom Beijing considers a dangerous separatist. India is negotiating the sale of supersonic missiles to Southeast Asian countries that could be used to deter Chinese provocations in the South China Sea. China views several global forums to which India belongs, such as the Quad and the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, as attempts to contain China. These complex geopolitical factors make it difficult for India-China relations to fully escape tensions.
Several signs are worth watching in order to better understand the future trajectory of relations. One of these is border negotiations. 50,000 square miles remain in dispute along the 2,100-mile (3,380 km) border – an area the size of Greece. The border situation is the biggest barometer of relations. The Ladakh clash broke trust; last year's patrol agreement helped to restore it. If the two sides can come up with more confidence-building measures, it will be beneficial to bilateral relations. Future high-level interactions are also important. If Modi and Xi – both of whom place a high value on personal diplomacy – meet this year, it would boost the recent momentum in bilateral relations. They will have opportunities to meet at the BRICS leaders' summit in July, the G20 summit in November, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) leaders' summit later this year.
Another key sign is Chinese investment, which would bring critical capital to India's key sectors, from manufacturing to renewable energy, and help ease India's $85 billion (£65.7 billion) trade deficit with China. Increased investment of this kind would provide a timely economic boost for India and make it easier for China to access the world's fastest-growing major economy. Stronger commercial cooperation would provide more incentives to de-escalate wider tensions. These economic factors will play an important role in the stability of India-China relations.
Regional and global developments are also worth watching. Four of India's neighbors – Bangladesh, the Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka – have recently installed new leaders who are more pro-China than their predecessors. But so far, they have sought to balance relations with Beijing and Delhi, rather than align with China. If this continues, Delhi's concerns about Beijing's influence in India's neighborhood may ease somewhat. In addition, if China pulls back from its growing partnership with India's close friend Russia – something that is more likely to happen if the war in Ukraine ends and Moscow's dependence on Beijing deepens – it could help India-China relations. These external factors will directly impact the development of India-China relations.
The Trump factor is also crucial. US President Donald Trump, despite imposing tariffs on China, has hinted at wanting to ease tensions with Beijing. If he does so, and Delhi worries that Washington may not be as committed as it once was to helping India push back against China, then India will want to ensure that its own relationship with China is in a better state. In addition, if Trump's impending reciprocal tariff policy hits India hard – which it surely will, given the 10% average tariff difference between the US and India – India will have another incentive to boost commercial cooperation with Beijing. Policy changes by the Trump administration could prompt India to adjust its strategy towards China.
India and China are the two largest countries in Asia, and both see themselves as proud ancient civilizations. They are natural competitors. But the recent positive developments in relations, combined with the potential for further bilateral progress elsewhere, could bring more stability to the relationship – and ensure that Modi's conciliatory words are more than just empty rhetoric. The future development of India-China relations will depend on whether both sides can overcome challenges, seize opportunities, and jointly build a more stable and prosperous Asia.
