Israel destroyed life in Gaza but it is far from victorious

After 15 months of intense bombardment in the Gaza Strip, resulting in unprecedented death and destruction, analysts argue that Israel is far from victorious. Despite possessing overwhelming firepower and international support, Israel has failed to achieve several key objectives of the war launched after the Hamas-led attacks on October 7, 2023.

Analysts Sami al-Arian and Amir Mahoul suggest that this failure, coupled with the immense humanitarian cost in Gaza, reveals a deeper crisis within Israel’s military and political strategies. October 7th was a significant strategic, military, and intelligence failure for Israel, and its armed forces were determined to rectify this mistake. However, al-Arian and Mahoul contend that in many ways, Israel's military operations have exacerbated these weaknesses rather than strengthening them.

“Israel was forced to sign an agreement with the movement it claimed to be destroying and uprooting,” Ramallah-based political analyst al-Arian told Middle East Eye. “This means that the image that was broken on October 7 has not been restored to this day.” Yet, despite this, Israel's sole success should not be overlooked: the destruction of life in Gaza. They added that this will present significant future challenges for Palestinians in Gaza, including Hamas.

Al-Arian stated that one cannot ignore the immense humanitarian cost and massive destruction in Gaza when assessing the war and predicting its impact. “The discussion about success and failure should largely remain cautious and reserved because it must take into account the humanitarian cost paid inside Gaza,” he added. “We can say that the occupying power has failed to achieve some of its goals, but we cannot ignore the massive destruction and severe humanitarian cost it has inflicted on Palestinians inside Gaza.”

Mahoul, a writer and activist from Haifa, added that, considering this, there are no clear winners in this war. “The Palestinian people have paid an extremely heavy price that cannot be described as a ‘victory’ or paid for a victory,” he told Middle East Eye. “On the other hand, Israel cannot claim any form of victory. On the contrary, there is a sense inside Israel that it has failed.”

Israel has failed to achieve significant strategic or military victories. In fact, it can be argued that Israel has strategically failed, leaving its position globally and regionally worse than it was on October 6, 2023. Most of the goals set by Israel after the Hamas-led surprise attacks, which resulted in the deaths of approximately 1,200 Israelis, have not been met. These include eliminating Hamas’s military wing, overthrowing its government, and freeing all 240 Israeli prisoners held in Gaza. Analysts also suggest there have been failures in achieving other unstated objectives, such as restoring deterrence, displacing Palestinians from Gaza, and occupying parts of the enclave.

“The Israeli occupying power has failed to displace Palestinians from the Gaza Strip, impose settlements, impose a long-term military occupation, eliminate Hamas, or find an alternative to its rule,” al-Arian explained. Mahoul further stated that Israel has not only failed militarily but also strategically, with political alliances collapsing and international reputation damaged. The alliances built with Arab countries during Donald Trump's first administration have quickly disintegrated, leaving Israel with fewer regional and international allies.

“Israel’s strategic weight has significantly decreased at both the Arab and global levels,” Mahoul asserted. Both analysts stated that Israel’s actions have also led to a profound shift in global perceptions. The once unconditional support from Western countries for Israel is now being questioned, with growing calls for accountability. Mahoul noted that the Palestinian issue has re-emerged strongly on the international agenda, particularly given Israel’s violations of international law.

“The Palestinian issue is now in a very strong strategic position on the global stage,” he wrote, citing the International Court of Justice’s preliminary ruling that Israel is plausibly committing genocide in Gaza and the growing international pressure on Israel. On the other hand, Hamas will face significant challenges once the guns fall silent. Al-Arian stated that it will have to face the Palestinian people and justify the war, facilitate the reconstruction of Gaza, and rebuild its capabilities. “The reconstruction process will be a major challenge,” he said.

He added, “We have thousands of orphans, children who survived after their entire families were wiped out, sometimes a seven-year-old taking care of a one or two-year-old sibling, and so on. In addition, there are many wounded. There are major social problems that need to be addressed.” Assessing how the war has affected its enemies’ perception of Israel, and whether it will have a deterrent effect, will take time.

“Have the Israelis succeeded in changing the Palestinian people’s perception that resistance is futile?” al-Arian asked. He argued that while the destruction in Gaza has been catastrophic, the refusal to surrender has made Hamas a symbol of resistance. He believes that this, along with the human suffering, will be a driving force for the broader Palestinian struggle for a long time to come. The significance of the October 7 attacks, which exposed the vulnerability of Israeli intelligence and military capabilities, will remain forever.

“For the first time, Israel could be targeted, deceived, and defeated,” al-Arian said. He believes that this will have lasting implications for future Palestinian resistance movements and Israeli security.