Israel-Gaza ceasefire deal: Which Palestinian prisoners could be released?

Over a thousand Palestinian prisoners, many held for years without charge in the Israeli prison system, are preparing for their first taste of freedom. The exact number of prisoners to be released in exchange for Israeli hostages held in Gaza is currently unclear. The text of the ceasefire agreement has not been made public, and media reports describe differing prisoner exchange ratios based on whether Palestinian prisoners were serving life sentences.

According to the Palestinian Commission of Detainees and Ex-Detainees Affairs and the Palestinian Prisoners Society, there are currently 10,400 Palestinians held in Israeli prisons, not including those detained from Gaza during the conflict of the past 15 months. The Israeli Justice Ministry has released a list of 95 Palestinian women and children who are scheduled to be released on Sunday if the ceasefire agreement goes into effect. Beyond this, the names of other prisoners to be released are unknown.

According to the outline of the agreement, their release will take place after 4:00 pm local time (14:00 GMT) on Sunday afternoon. The list published by Israel shows that the vast majority were arrested after the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023, according to media reports, with less than 10 being arrested prior to the attacks. In the first phase of the three-stage agreement between Hamas and Israel, more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners will be exchanged for the remaining 33 Israeli hostages, out of an estimated total of around 100.

Under the terms of the agreement, Palestinian prisoners will be exchanged for Israeli hostages according to ratios agreed upon by both sides and international mediators in Doha. It is reported that 110 Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences in Israeli courts will be exchanged for nine sick and injured Israeli hostages. Additionally, Israeli men over the age of 50 will be exchanged at a ratio of 1:3 for Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences, and at a ratio of 1:27 for Palestinian prisoners serving other sentences.

Prisoners have long been a bargaining chip in negotiations between Israel and Palestinian groups. During stalled peace talks in 2013, Israel agreed to release more than 100 Palestinians in stages, a move that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at the time was intended to strengthen negotiations. However, examples more similar to the current exchange date back to a prisoner swap in 1983, when more than 4,500 Palestinian prisoners were released in exchange for six Israeli soldiers. Similarly, in 1985, around 1,150 Palestinian prisoners were exchanged for three Israeli soldiers. The current exchange is also similar in scale to perhaps the most famous prisoner swap, the 2011 release of captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit.

In 2011, 1,027 Palestinian prisoners were exchanged for Shalit, who was captured by Hamas in a cross-border raid in 2006 and held for five years as negotiations stalled. In 2014, the Israeli government admitted that they had re-arrested 51 of these prisoners after three Israeli teenagers were kidnapped and eventually killed in the occupied West Bank. In explaining these arrests after the fact, Netanyahu made no attempt to connect the arrestees to the missing teens, saying only that their kidnapping sent “an important message” to Hamas.

Khalida Jarrar, a leader of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) in the occupied West Bank, is among the Palestinian prisoners scheduled for release on Sunday, according to Israeli Army Radio reports. Palestinians have also called for the release of several other high-profile prisoners, including some serving life sentences. Among them is Marwan Barghouti, a major figure in the Palestinian Fatah organization, whose long-term release has been blocked by Israeli authorities. Barghouti helped author the Palestinian Prisoners’ Document in 2006, uniting many different Palestinian factions, and his release could have significant implications for Palestinian politics, as the unifying figure has repeatedly topped the list when Palestinians are asked who they would vote for in future presidential elections.

Al Jazeera contacted Barghouti’s representatives, including his family, on Friday, who stated that while they are hopeful, they have not received information about his potential release. Another high-profile Palestinian prisoner is Ahmad Sa’adat, leader of the PFLP, whom Israel accuses of ordering the assassination of Israeli tourism minister Rehavam Ze’evi in 2001, though the Justice Ministry initially ruled there was insufficient evidence to charge him with murder.

While the locations of many of the planned releases are unclear, human rights organizations have long expressed concerns about conditions within the Israeli prison system. In August of this year, Israeli human rights group B’Tselem released a detailed report detailing a network of Israeli detention facilities, calling them “torture camps”. Global NGO Human Rights Watch also released reports in July and August about the Israeli prison system, detailing instances of rape, sharing sexualized images of Palestinian prisoners including children, and the systemic torture of detainees. In July 2024, the Israeli minister in charge of the prison system, far-right politician Itamar Ben-Gvir, boasted that “all the reports about the abominable conditions suffered by Palestinians in Israeli prisons are true.”

Additionally, there are over 3,000 Palestinian prisoners held in administrative detention, meaning they are held without trial or charge.