Trump's TikTok reprieve is temporary. Change is coming, one way or another

Last weekend, the American public briefly experienced life without TikTok, which ended after Donald Trump issued a 176-word statement on his personal social media platform. TikTok's 170 million users in the US faced a “blackout” on Saturday night local time, after its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, failed to sell its US operations to an American buyer by the deadline.

The platform's iconic icon also briefly disappeared from the Google and Apple app stores, while other internet service providers that facilitate the app's operation followed suit, fearing hefty fines for non-compliance. TikTok only began to resume operations after Trump posted on Truth Social. This was the message received by US TikTok users after the app came back online.

However, the newly inaugurated president is far from fulfilling his promise to “save” the platform. This brief TikTok ban has placed the Trump administration, ByteDance, and all the companies that maintain its online operations in an unknown legal quagmire. The possibility of TikTok being suspended again remains. In fact, the only certainty for the platform and its users right now is that there will be more turbulence ahead.

ByteDance and its service providers took a multi-billion-dollar gamble by restarting the platform. The company is betting that Trump can protect them from the potential fines for effectively ignoring US law, which they are currently in violation of. A bipartisan bill passed in April 2024 stipulated that ByteDance must sell its US operations to an American company by January 19 or face a ban. If ByteDance or any of its service providers fail to comply with the ban, they face fines of $5,000 (about A$8,047) per user per day.

ByteDance has so far steadfastly refused to sell, but as the deadline approached, the pressure on the US government to intervene increased. In the days leading up to the ban, both the former Biden administration and the newly inaugurated Trump team indicated they would not pursue fines. But Trump's post appeared to be decisive, sparking political speculation about the timing. “The general consensus online is that TikTok wanted to embarrass President Biden and give the incoming President Trump a chance to be the hero,” said Philip Mai, a social media researcher at Toronto Metropolitan University.

But the decision was more than just political, given the potentially enormous fines at stake. “They just got the certainty they wanted from the Trump camp,” said Tom Barrett of the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. Legal scholars warn there is still no guarantee of smooth sailing, but the gamble, while potentially disastrous, is a calculated one. “The fines are possible, but unlikely,” Mr. Lai said. “A president after Trump could choose to hold the transgressors to account. But it’s unlikely a future president would look back or be responsible for the bankruptcy of so many American tech companies.”

“By ignoring the law and helping TikTok go back online, all of TikTok’s service providers are risking future US governments imposing hundreds of billions of dollars in fines. This sets a very bad precedent and shows that tech companies are now, like banks, apparently ‘too big to fail’ institutions.” Experts say any assurances Trump has given so far are not legally binding. The president promised to issue an executive order on his inauguration day to extend the deadline for the sale “so we can reach an agreement that protects our national security”.

But questions remain about how much legal weight this would carry, as the existing law has received constitutional approval from the Supreme Court and can only be repealed by an act of Congress. “It depends on what the executive order says,” said Carl Tobias, a law professor at the University of Richmond in Virginia. “How carefully it’s drafted, how much the president tries to work with Congress and choose a solution that doesn’t violate the law... it’s very delicate.” Another option would be for Trump to instruct the Justice Department to ignore the statute, risking a legal crisis.

Carl Tobias said such a move could trigger court challenges, but the real crisis will come in 90 days if ByteDance refuses to sell enough of its US operations to satisfy the law. He believes it is more likely that Trump will seek Congressional support. “If Congress passes legislation to support [Donald Trump’s plan] rather than acting alone in the executive branch, that would be best,” Professor Tobias said. “Because the Republicans control both houses, and are very supportive of Trump... they might be relatively flexible, even if they might have been strongly in favor of this legislation. There’s a chance things will be resolved, but it’s not a given.”

In short, TikTok is likely to remain available in the US in its current form for at least the next three months. But this still doesn’t guarantee the platform won’t be suspended again. “In the short term, it’s unlikely, but if things don’t go well or an agreement can’t be reached, it’s possible, and we shouldn’t underestimate how difficult that is,” Professor Tobias said. Currently, there are no promising deals underway, at least not publicly. Trump suggested a 50-50 ownership model between ByteDance and an American company in his Truth Social post, but Mr. Lai warns this is not enough. “If it’s not a 100% divestment, TikTok still won’t be compliant with the law,” he said.

Even if ByteDance does sell (which it has so far shown no indication of doing) and is able to find a buyer, there are other “potential stumbling blocks”, Mr. Barrett said. Chief among these are Chinese export restrictions on the sale of algorithms like TikTok’s. TikTok’s algorithm is widely considered highly sophisticated, and if any sale does not include it, US users may notice a huge change to the platform, and not necessarily in a way they like. “[TikTok] will be around for at least three months, but anything beyond that is up to [Chinese President] Xi Jinping and Trump,” Mr. Mai said.

“Trump and his team have the task of finding a carrot and a stick big enough to convince China to allow TikTok to sell their golden goose. If not, the site may go dark again.” ByteDance has so far steadfastly refused to sell its TikTok operations in the US. Trump’s hero moment on Sunday is fragile. Legalities and Supreme Court rulings aside, Mr. Barrett points out that US public opinion has shifted since the TikTok bill was first conceived. “Pew polling shows support for the ban has dropped from around 50% to 32% last July and August,” he said.

If TikTok is suspended again, its users, about half of all Americans, may not so easily forgive the president who promised to “save” it. _**Additional reporting by Evan Young of the Professional Reporting Team**_