According to measurements from four out of six research teams, the Earth has exceeded the anticipated warming limit for a full year for the first time on record. Scientists state that if the Earth remains above this threshold for an extended period, it will lead to increased fatalities, heightened destruction, species loss, and rising sea levels due to global warming.
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02-13, 2025This situation follows a year of frequent and deadly climate disasters in 2024, which caused $27 billion in damages in the U.S. alone. In early 2025, devastating wildfires broke out again in Southern California. Last year, the global average temperature easily broke the 2023 record and continued to climb. Data from the European Commission's Copernicus Climate Change Service, the UK Met Office, the Japan Meteorological Agency, and the private Berkeley Earth team indicate that temperatures have surpassed the long-term warming limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius, as mandated by the 2015 Paris Agreement, since the late 19th century.
Only two U.S. government agencies measured the Earth's temperature below 1.5 degrees Celsius. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) reported last year's temperatures at 1.46 degrees Celsius and 1.47 degrees Celsius, respectively. The Copernicus team calculated a warming of 1.6 degrees Celsius, Japan at 1.57 degrees Celsius, and the UK at 1.53 degrees Celsius. The Berkeley Earth team, initially funded by climate change skeptics, measured the highest temperature at 1.62 degrees Celsius.
Samantha Burgess, head of climate strategy at Copernicus, stated, "The main cause of these record temperatures is the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from burning coal, oil, and gas." She added, "As greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere, temperatures continue to rise, including in the oceans, sea levels continue to rise, and glaciers and ice sheets continue to melt." NOAA stated that last year was the hottest year on record for the U.S. Burgess noted that it was not only the hottest year on record (dating back to 1850), but also likely the hottest year on Earth in 125,000 years.
“There’s no indication that this is not going to continue,” said Russ Vose, head of monitoring at NOAA, on Friday. He explained, "When there’s more heat in the system, it has a cascading effect on other parts of the system. Sea levels rise, warmer air can hold more moisture, which tends to lead to more extreme storms. A warmer world has a lot of impacts." Multiple scientists pointed out that the biggest factor contributing to record warming is the burning of fossil fuels. Burgess stated that a short-lived El Niño natural warming in the central Pacific added a small amount of warming, while a 2022 underwater volcanic eruption ultimately cooled the atmosphere by releasing more reflective particles and water vapor into the atmosphere.
Jennifer Francis, a scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center, said, "The alarm bells associated with climate change have been ringing almost constantly, which may lead to public numbness about the urgency, like the sound of sirens in New York City." She added, "But on climate, the alarm bells are getting louder, and the emergency is now far more than just about temperature." Marshall Shepherd, a professor of meteorology at the University of Georgia, likened it to a warning light on a car's dashboard, saying, "The weather upheavals behind Hurricane Helen, the floods in Spain, and the California wildfires are all symptoms of this unfortunate climate shift."
According to NOAA, the U.S. experienced 27 weather disasters that caused at least $1 billion (AU$1.6 billion) in damages, just one less than the record set in 2023. These disasters caused $182.7 billion (AU$297 billion) in losses for the U.S. Hurricane Helen was the costliest and deadliest disaster of the year, causing at least 219 deaths and $79.6 billion (AU$129 billion) in damages. Katharine Hayhoe, a climate scientist at Texas Tech University, stated in an email that according to NOAA data adjusted for inflation, “In the 1980s, the U.S. experienced a weather and climate disaster that cost over $1 billion on average every four months. Now, it’s happening every three weeks—and we've already had the first one of 2025, even though we're only nine days into the new year.”
Scientists were quick to point out that the 1.5-degree target refers to long-term warming, now defined as a 20-year average. The long-term warming since the pre-industrial era is now 1.3 degrees Celsius. Victor Gensini, a climate scientist at Northern Illinois University, stated in an email, “The 1.5-degree threshold is more than just a number, it’s a danger signal. Even exceeding this threshold for just one year shows that we are very close to breaking the limits set by the Paris Agreement.” A large-scale UN study in 2018 found that keeping the Earth’s temperature rise below 1.5 degrees Celsius could prevent the extinction of coral reefs, prevent massive ice sheet loss in Antarctica, and avert the death and suffering of many people.
Francis called the threshold “dead.” Burgess stated that it is highly likely that the Earth will exceed the 1.5-degree threshold, but she called the Paris Agreement an "extremely important international policy" that countries around the world should continue to commit to. Calculations from Europe and the UK indicate that 2025 may not be as hot as 2024 due to the cooling La Niña phenomenon this year, instead of last year’s El Niño. They predict it will be the third hottest year. However, according to Copernicus data, despite the temperature plunge in the eastern U.S., the first six days of January averaged slightly higher, marking the hottest start to a year on record.
Scientists remain divided on whether global warming is accelerating. Carlo Buontempo, director of Copernicus, said there is not enough data to show that atmospheric warming is accelerating, but the heat content of the oceans appears to be not only rising but rising faster. Buontempo said, "We are facing a completely new climate and new challenges—climate challenges that our society is not yet prepared for." Michael Mann, a climate scientist at the University of Pennsylvania, said it all feels like watching the end of a dystopian science fiction movie. "We are now reaping what we have sown."
