Sudan's RSF attacks el-Fasher as fighting rages on in Khartoum

Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) launched an attack on El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur, after a deadline they issued for the Sudanese army and its allied forces to evacuate the city expired on Thursday. The RSF has been engaged in conflict with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) since April 2023 and has been besieging El Fasher since May. There are widespread fears that the forces will commit ethnic killings of civilians, as they have done in other parts of Darfur.

Two days prior, the RSF gave the army and its allies 48 hours to leave El Fasher. That ultimatum expired on Thursday, and local sources told Middle East Eye that the paramilitary group had launched a "final attack" on the city, which is believed to be commanded by Abdulrahim Dagalo, brother and deputy of RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo. Since then, the RSF has been shelling the Abu Shouk camp for internally displaced persons (IDPs) on the northern edge of El Fasher, as well as neighborhoods within the city. They have been met with resistance from the army and its allied forces.

An activist in the city said that the RSF had been pouring artillery fire on an emergency hospital since Wednesday, before the ultimatum expired. "All hospitals in El Fasher have been attacked by drones and artillery, and they are now out of service," said the activist, who spoke on condition of anonymity for security reasons. Previously, the only remaining operating hospital in the city, the South Hospital in El Fasher, was looted and forced to close after being repeatedly targeted by the RSF. Other medical facilities have also suffered extensive damage in the fighting. Local sources told Middle East Eye that at least four civilians were killed on Thursday, including Mohamed Ishaq, who died after an RSF mortar hit his home.

Esra Mohamed Nour, a consultant at the Strategic Initiative for Women in the Horn of Africa (SIHA) office in El Fasher, said that the RSF's ultimatum and its expiry had created "fear and panic among the city's residents and the displaced in the IDP camps." Nour told Middle East Eye that on Thursday "there were fierce clashes between the army and the joint forces against the RSF in the south and east of the city, with heavy artillery exchanges during the day."

"Effectively, both the SAF and the RSF are working towards an unknown but imminent deadline set by the upcoming new US administration," said Sudanese analyst Kholood Khair. She said that the army had been carrying out air strikes against RSF positions, as it has been doing across Darfur. Air strikes in Nyala, South Darfur, reportedly resulted in civilian casualties. Nour said that "the situation is under the control of the army and its allies," with the RSF failing to break through the army's Sixth Infantry Division. However, she added that the RSF had fired missiles at military locations and appeared to be preparing for a larger attack.

"They typically use a two-pronged attack - a smaller attack to wear down the defenses of the SAF and the joint forces, and then a larger attack," said Kholood Khair, a Sudanese analyst and founder of Confluence Advisory. Nour was communicating via a Starlink internet connection, as no other means of communication was available. She said that the RSF shelling of the Abu Shouk camp had resulted in "some IDPs" being killed, with "some merchants killed in an attack on the livestock market."

The escalation of fighting in El Fasher matches intense clashes in north Khartoum, also known as Bahri. Ongoing fighting around the Gieli refinery, north of the capital, has sparked fires. Videos circulating online showed large plumes of black smoke forming in the area as a result of the fire, which was caused by toxic gases and volatile petroleum materials. Suleiman Baldo, a Sudanese conflict expert, said that in north Khartoum "intense street fighting is taking place, with the SAF advancing one residential block, street, and high-rise building at a time." For the army, Baldo said, "the main problem is RSF snipers firing from well-protected positions, inflicting significant casualties on advancing SAF troops."

Khair said that the reported presence of Abdulrahim Dagalo in Darfur, while his brother, the more well-known RSF leader Hemeti, is in Khartoum, indicated that the paramilitary group and its enemies were taking the current fighting very seriously. "Effectively, both the SAF and the RSF are working towards an unknown but imminent deadline set by the upcoming new US administration. They recognize that Sudan will move higher up on its agenda, as the Trump administration tries to shift attention away from its ally Israel," Khair told Middle East Eye.

On 16 January, while downplaying accusations of genocide committed by Israel in Gaza, the new US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the RSF's killings in Sudan were a "real genocide" in "an era where the word genocide is thrown around." Rubio went on to mention the "open" support of the UAE for the RSF, which has been accused of genocide by the US and human rights organizations. Khair said that both the Sudanese army and the RSF were looking to make breakthroughs on the battlefield now because they "know they will be forced to negotiate soon, and both sides want to negotiate from a position of strength."

"It looks like the SAF will take Khartoum and Gezira state, because that's what their ally Egypt will help them secure," Khair said. "And the RSF will continue to fight for El Fasher, even as it tries to take the whole of Khartoum city." Egyptian Foreign Minister Abdel Atti recently said in televised comments that his country was supporting the Sudanese army.