Russian ships return to Syrian base ahead of expected withdrawal

Two vessels linked to the Russian military, the "Sparta" and "Sparta II," have docked at the Russian naval port in Tartus, Syria. Experts believe this signals the start of an anticipated withdrawal from the facility. Both ships, which arrived in Tartus on Tuesday, are under U.S. sanctions and have been accused by Ukraine of transporting Russian weapons.

Analysts had previously anticipated that Russia would reduce its military presence in Syria following the collapse of the Assad regime in December. Russia has been a long-time supporter of the Assad regime during the civil war. A significant amount of military equipment has been transported to the port in recent weeks, a fact corroborated by satellite imagery analyzed by the BBC Verify team. Images show dozens of vehicles and other equipment at the port, with the buildup beginning in mid-December, following videos showing a large convoy of Russian vehicles moving north towards the base, indicating they were being transferred from other outposts in the country.

The arrival of the two ships coincides with Syrian media reports that Russia's lease on the port has been canceled. The new transitional government in Damascus declined to confirm these reports to the BBC, and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also declined to comment when asked about the matter at a press briefing in Moscow. Tartus has been a crucial base for Russia in recent years, allowing it to refuel, resupply, and repair its ships in the Mediterranean.

The Kremlin had seemingly hoped to maintain control over the base, stating in December that Russian officials were in discussions with the new authorities regarding continued presence. Analysts believe the "Sparta" and "Sparta II," ultimately owned by Oboronlogistika LLC, a shipping company under the Russian Ministry of Defense, were denied docking at Tartus during the negotiations. The two vessels had been lingering off the Syrian coast in the Mediterranean for weeks. Marine tracking websites show the two ships finally docked on Tuesday evening before turning off their transponders.

Recent weather conditions have made it difficult to obtain clear satellite images. However, images from the EU's Sentinel radar satellite, which has a lower resolution but can penetrate cloud cover, show the vessels within the port's military zone. Until now, no Russian naval vessels had been observed in Tartus since the collapse of the Assad regime in early December. In earlier high-resolution satellite images, dozens of military vehicles can be seen parked near where the ships are now docked. Cranes, likely for loading equipment, are also visible nearby.

Naval analyst Frederik Van Lokeren told BBC Verify that there are likely two other Russian naval ships also in the port. He said that the Ivan Gren and Alexander Otrakovsky may also be involved in the withdrawal, an opinion shared with BBC Verify by Ukrainian military intelligence. "With the 49-year lease canceled, it is clear Russia can no longer count on maintaining a military presence in Tartus, so there seems to be no reason to stay and postpone a maritime withdrawal," Mr. Van Lokeren added.

Anton Mardasov, of the Middle East Institute’s Syria Program, said it would likely take some time to remove all of Russia's equipment. “Over the years, far more has been brought there than these ships and vessels can carry away,” Mr. Mardasov told BBC Verify.

Meanwhile, there has also been ongoing activity at Russia's main airbase in Syria, Khmeimim. Satellite images show Russian large transport aircraft loading military equipment on various dates since the collapse of the Assad regime. Ukrainian military intelligence says that since mid-December, Russian flights have transferred military personnel and equipment from Khmeimim to airbases in Libya at least 10 times. The Kremlin has been backing the Tobruk-based warlord Khalifa Haftar in eastern Libya.

Moscow has long maintained a presence at two bases mentioned by Ukrainian intelligence, Al-Khadim and Al-Jufra. Dr. Sorcha MacLeod, a former member of the UN Working Group on mercenaries, told BBC Verify that these facilities were previously operated by the Wagner Group. She said that the Russian Ministry of Defense has taken over responsibility for these bases through its new Africa Corps. This force is directly managed by Moscow and has taken over much of Wagner’s former functions. Dr. MacLeod added that the Russian troop movements to the country "make sense, as Libya has become an important hub for the Africa Corps’ operations and access to West Africa."