Will the EU ease Syria sanctions? Inside the bloc’s dilemma

Senior EU diplomats are scheduled to meet on January 27 to discuss easing sanctions on Syria in an attempt to revitalize the country’s struggling economy. Meanwhile, questions remain about the potential political direction of the war-torn nation’s new government.

According to sources familiar with the matter, EU foreign ministers will consider specific sanctions measures including travel restrictions, Syrian oil and gas exports, infrastructure and humanitarian aid, and the gradual lifting of restrictions on financial transactions. This follows the US’s move in January to relax some restrictions for six months to facilitate humanitarian aid, some energy sales, and personal remittances into Syria.

The EU is also considering action. In recent weeks, several EU officials have visited Damascus to express support for the new interim government led by members of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). This group overthrew the Bashar al-Assad regime, but was sanctioned by the UN back in 2014 for its ties to al-Qaeda, and designated a “terrorist organization” by the US and EU in 2018.

Despite engaging with Syria's interim leader, Ahmed Sharaa, EU leaders have also issued warnings: they expect the new Syrian leadership to form an inclusive government that respects human rights and minorities. The EU is cautious about the potential direction Sharaa might take. “There is no concrete sign yet that anything has changed,” said one diplomat, referring to HTS’s poor human rights record. The EU condemned HTS in 2020 for “systematically” torturing and killing civilians in areas under its control, stating that the group’s actions may constitute war crimes or crimes against humanity.

The worst-case scenario, the diplomat added, is that after sanctions are lifted, the new government imposes restrictions on the rights of women or minorities. Sharaa joined al-Qaeda in Iraq in 2003, later establishing the group’s armed branch in Syria, Jabhat al-Nusra. This group broke ties with al-Qaeda in 2017 and rebranded as HTS by merging with other factions. Before ending Assad’s regime in a lightning offensive last December, the group controlled the Idlib region in the northwest of the country and is estimated to have as many as 30,000 armed fighters.

Syrian leaders have repeatedly denied extremism and have attempted to project a moderate image, promising to establish an inclusive government. Experts say that persuading Western nations to lift sanctions is crucial for the new government’s success because the initial excitement following the overthrow of Assad could pave the way for frustration and violence if economic assistance is not quickly forthcoming.

It is estimated that 90% of the Syrian population lives in poverty. The country's gross domestic product (GDP) today is less than $9 billion, compared to $60 billion in 2010. Most regions receive only two to three hours of government-supplied electricity per day. The new government lacks the resources to address daunting tasks, including paying civil servants, rebuilding entire cities that have been razed to the ground, setting an election roadmap, and securing winter heating.

“It’s very easy to fail the test — there are a lot of reasons why things could go wrong,” said Sultan Barakat, a professor of public policy at Hamad Bin Khalifa University in Qatar. He argues that sanctions that directly hinder the country’s ability to rebuild — such as those affecting diaspora investment in the productive sector, as well as travel — should be lifted immediately and unconditionally. The EU could discuss restrictions on individuals or HTS at a later stage.

“We can only judge them [the Sharaa-led government] by what they say, and what they are saying is good — now they [Western governments] can either help turn what they are saying into action, or they can be skeptical and put obstacles in their way,” he said.

Syria is the third most sanctioned country in the world, after Russia and Iran. In the 1970s, the US placed Syria on its list of states that support “terrorism” because of its occupation of eastern Lebanon. In the decades that followed, both the US and EU imposed several rounds of restrictions, including those related to Assad’s support for Hezbollah and his brutal crackdown on pro-democracy protests in 2011, which triggered a war that has lasted more than 13 years.

Among the most damaging sanctions was the US’s 2019 Caesar Act, which effectively prohibits countries and private businesses from doing business with the Assad government. The EU has imposed sanctions on financial support for imports and exports, infrastructure projects, and trade.

Syrian economist Samir Aita, chairman of the France-based Circle of Arab Economists, said that US exemptions and the EU’s proposal for sectorial sanctions may not be enough to allow the new government to guarantee stability and attract private investors, without a full lifting of restrictions on the energy sector and financial transactions, as well as personal remittances.

“You need to speed up the process,” Aita said. “If the Syrian state and its institutions cannot function properly, and only NGOs can act, they will end up replacing the state,” he said. The country risks becoming a “cash economy” as the central bank remains sanctioned, which could translate into uncontrolled flows of funds to different groups and militias, “and that means chaos,” he added.

Europe will be directly affected by this instability. “The EU has been directly hit by the Syrian conflict in terms of migration, terrorism and wider instability, so it’s in its clear interest to see a stable Syria move forward,” said Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of the Middle East program at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

More than one million Syrians have sought asylum in Europe since the war began. With anti-immigration sentiment rising across the EU, some European governments have promised to create economic conditions for refugees to return home, which could prove a favorable electoral tactic.

But Barnes-Dacey said that political engagement has not been backed by any meaningful material steps so far to support the transition. “There’s a real risk that if they wait too long, deteriorating conditions will undermine the prospects of the transition that they hope to see,” he added.